Using extreme value theory to value stock market returns

Extreme stock price movements are of great concern to both investors and the entire economy. For investors, a single negative return, or a combination of several smaller returns, can possible wipe out so much capital that the firm or portfolio becomes illiquid or insolvent. If enough investors experience this loss, it could shock the entire economy. An example of such a case is the stock market crash of 1987. Furthermore, there has been a lot of recent interest regarding the increasing volatility of stock prices. ^ This study presents an analysis of extreme stock price movements. The data utilized was the daily returns for the Standard and Poor's 500 index from January 3, 1978 to May 31, 2001. Research questions were analyzed using the statistical models provided by extreme value theory. One of the difficulties in examining stock price data is that there is no consensus regarding the correct shape of the distribution function generating the data. An advantage with extreme value theory is that no detailed knowledge of this distribution function is required to apply the asymptotic theory. We focus on the tail of the distribution. ^ Extreme value theory allows us to estimate a tail index, which we use to derive bounds on the returns for very low probabilities on an excess. Such information is useful in evaluating the volatility of stock prices. There are three possible limit laws for the maximum: Gumbel (thick-tailed), Fréchet (thin-tailed) or Weibull (no tail). Results indicated that extreme returns during the time period studied follow a Fréchet distribution. Thus, this study finds that extreme value analysis is a valuable tool for examining stock price movements and can be more efficient than the usual variance in measuring risk. ^

A study of learners' perceived value and satisfaction for implied effectiveness of online learning systems

Online learning systems (OLS) have become center stage for corporations and educational institutions as a competitive tool in the knowledge economy. The satisfaction construct has received extensive coverage in information systems literature as an indicator of effectiveness but has been criticized for lack of validity; yet, the value construct has been largely ignored, although it has a long history in psychology, sociology, and behavioral science. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the value and satisfaction constructs in the context of OLS, and their perceived by learners relationship for implied effectiveness of OLS. ^ First, a qualitative phase is employed to gather OLS values from learners' focus groups, followed by a pilot phase to refine a proposed instrument, and a main phase to validate the survey. Responses were received from 75 students in four focus groups, 141 in the pilot, and 207 the main survey. Extensive data cleaning and exploratory factor analysis were done to identify factors of learners' perceived value and satisfaction of OLS. Then, Value-Satisfaction grids and the Learners' Value Index of Satisfaction (LeVIS) were developed as benchmarking tools of OLS. Moreover, Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques were employed to impute value from satisfaction scores in order to reduce survey response time. ^ The results provided four satisfaction and four value factors with high reliability (Cronbach's α). Moreover, value and satisfaction were found to have low linear and nonlinear correlations, indicating that they are two distinct uncorrelated constructs. This is consistent with the literature. Value-Satisfaction grids and the LeVIS index indicated relatively high effectiveness for technology and support characteristics, relatively low effectiveness for professor's characteristics, while course and learner characteristics indicated average effectiveness. ^ The main contributions of this study include identifying, defining, and articulating the relationship between value and satisfaction constructs as assessment of users' implied IS effectiveness, as well as assessing the accuracy of MCDA procedures to predict value scores, thus reducing by half the survey questionnaire size. ^

Ethics, Value Systems And The Professionalization Of Hoteliers

In the discussion - Ethics, Value Systems And The Professionalization Of Hoteliers by K. Michael Haywood, Associate Professor, School of Hotel and Food Administration, University of Guelph, Haywood initially presents: “Hoteliers and executives in other service industries should realize that the foundation of success in their businesses is based upon personal and corporate value systems and steady commitment to excellence. The author illustrates how ethical issues and manager morality are linked to, and shaped by the values of executives and the organization, and how improved professionalism can only be achieved through the adoption of a value system that rewards contributions rather than the mere attainment of results.” The bottom line of this discussion is, how does the hotel industry reconcile its behavior with that of public perception? “The time has come for hoteliers to examine their own standards of ethics, value systems, and professionalism,” Haywood says. And it is ethics that are at the center of this issue; Haywood holds that component in an estimable position. “Hoteliers must become value-driven,” advises Haywood. “They must be committed to excellence both in actualizing their best potentialities and in excelling in all they do. In other words, the professionalization of the hotelier can be achieved through a high degree of self-control, internalized values, codes of ethics, and related socialization processes,” he expands. “Serious ethical issues exist for hoteliers as well as for many business people and professionals in positions of responsibility,” Haywood alludes in defining some inter-industry problems. “The acceptance of kickbacks and gifts from suppliers, the hiding of income from taxation authorities, the lack of interest in installing and maintaining proper safety and security systems, and the raiding of competitors' staffs are common practices,” he offers, with the reasoning that if these problems can occur within ranks, then there is going to be a negative backlash in the public/client arena as well. Haywood divides the key principles of his thesis statement - ethics, value systems, and professionalism – into specific elements, and then continues to broaden the scope of each element. Promotion, product/service, and pricing are additional key components in Haywood’s discussion, and he addresses each with verve and vitality. Haywood references the four character types - craftsmen, jungle fighters, company men, and gamesmen – via a citation to Michael Maccoby, in the portion of the discussion dedicated to morality and success. Haywood closes with a series of questions derived from Lawrence Miller's American Spirit, Visions of a New Corporate Culture, each question designed to focus, shape, and organize management's attention to the values that Miller sets forth in his piece.

Management Compensation as a Value-Added Competitive Method for Casual Theme Restaurants

The primary purpose of this study is to propose that the management compensation package at Outback Steakhouse is a value-adding competitive method. Specifically the research focused on a survey of general manager's altitudes in regards to their intentions to seek out new employment and the effect of the compensation plan provided by Outback Steakhouse on the managers' intentions. This research will provide insight into the use of compensation packages and programs as proactive, value-adding competitive methods in retaining good quality managers it casual theme restaurants.

How Do Tourist Guides Add Value to An Ecotour? Interpreting Interpretation in the State of Amazonas, Brazil

In Ecotourism, interpretation by a guide creates or shapes the experience for the tourist, differentiating one episode from another. As such, the guide S interpretation adds value to the tourism product and contributes to the visitor S experience. This paper discussed the role of interpretation by guides in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, finding in them patterns from which lessons may be drawn. Given the intangibility of the Ecotourism product, this paper argues that it is the guide who defines the quality of the product. The guide may draw the tourist toward or away from sustainable practices, and significantly contributes to the success or failure of the escotouristic venture. The State of Amazonas in Brazil already has guides, but this study questions their education and training in interpretive skills as well as their professional organization and working conditions

Assessing an automated, information -sharing technology in the post "9 -11" era: Do local law enforcement officers think it meets their needs?

In the wake of the “9-11” terrorists' attacks, the U.S. Government has turned to information technology (IT) to address a lack of information sharing among law enforcement agencies. This research determined if and how information-sharing technology helps law enforcement by examining the differences in perception of the value of IT between law enforcement officers who have access to automated regional information sharing and those who do not. It also examined the effect of potential intervening variables such as user characteristics, training, and experience, on the officers' evaluation of IT. The sample was limited to 588 officers from two sheriff's offices; one of them (the study group) uses information sharing technology, the other (the comparison group) does not. Triangulated methodologies included surveys, interviews, direct observation, and a review of agency records. Data analysis involved the following statistical methods: descriptive statistics, Chi-Square, factor analysis, principal component analysis, Cronbach's Alpha, Mann-Whitney tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Scheffe' post hoc analysis. ^ Results indicated a significant difference between groups: the study group perceived information sharing technology as being a greater factor in solving crime and in increasing officer productivity. The study group was more satisfied with the data available to it. As to the number of arrests made, information sharing technology did not make a difference. Analysis of the potential intervening variables revealed several remarkable results. The presence of a strong performance management imperative (in the comparison sheriff's office) appeared to be a factor in case clearances and arrests, technology notwithstanding. As to the influence of user characteristics, level of education did not influence a user's satisfaction with technology, but user-satisfaction scores differed significantly among years of experience as a law enforcement officer and the amount of computer training, suggesting a significant but weak relationship. ^ Therefore, this study finds that information sharing technology assists law enforcement officers in doing their jobs. It also suggests that other variables such as computer training, experience, and management climate should be accounted for when assessing the impact of information technology. ^

Workplace Discrimination Climate and Team Effectiveness: The Mediating Role of Collective Value Congruence, Team Cohesion, and Collective Affective Commitment

This study explored the relationship between workplace discrimination climate on team effectiveness through three serial mediators: collective value congruence, team cohesion, and collective affective commitment. As more individuals of marginalized groups diversify the workforce and as more organizations move toward team-based work (Cannon-Bowers & Bowers, 2010), it is imperative to understand how employees perceive their organization’s discriminatory climate as well as its effect on teams. An archival dataset consisting of 6,824 respondents was used, resulting in 332 work teams with five or more members in each. The data were collected as part of an employee climate survey administered in 2011 throughout the United States’ Department of Defense. The results revealed that the indirect effect through M1 (collective value congruence) and M2 (team cohesion) best accounted for the relationship between workplace discrimination climate (X) and team effectiveness (Y). Meaning, on average, teams that reported a greater climate for workplace discrimination also reported less collective value congruence with their organization (a1 = -1.07, p < .001). With less shared perceptions of value congruence, there is less team cohesion (d21 = .45, p < .001), and with less team cohesion there is less team effectiveness (b2 = .57, p < .001). In addition, because of theoretical overlap, this study makes the case for studying workplace discrimination under the broader construct of workplace aggression within the I/O psychology literature. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis found that workplace discrimination based on five types of marginalized groups: race/ethnicity, gender, religion, age, and disability was best explained by a three-factor model, including: career obstruction based on age and disability bias (CO), verbal aggression based on multiple types of bias (VA), and differential treatment based on racial/ethnic bias (DT). There was initial support to claim that workplace discrimination items covary not only based on type, but also based on form (i.e., nonviolent aggressive behaviors). Therefore, the form of workplace discrimination is just as important as the type when studying climate perceptions and team-level effects. Theoretical and organizational implications are also discussed.