Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

Potential for Cell-Transplant Therapy with Human Neuronal Precursors to Treat Neuropathic Pain in Models of PNS and CNS Injury: Comparison of hNT2.17 and hNT2.19 Cell Lines

Effective treatment of sensory neuropathies in peripheral neuropathies and spinal cord injury (SCI) is one of the most difficult problems in modern clinical practice. Cell therapy to release antinociceptive agents near the injured spinal cord is a logical next step in the development of treatment modalities. But few clinical trials, especially for chronic pain, have tested the potential of transplant of cells to treat chronic pain. Cell lines derived from the human neuronal NT2 cell line parentage, the hNT2.17 and hNT2.19 lines, which synthesize and release the neurotransmitters gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) and serotonin (5HT), respectively, have been used to evaluate the potential of cell-based release of antinociceptive agents near the lumbar dorsal (horn) spinal sensory cell centers to relieve neuropathic pain after PNS (partial nerve and diabetes-related injury) and CNS (spinal cord injury) damage in rat models. Both cell lines transplants potently and permanently reverse behavioral hypersensitivity without inducing tumors or other complications after grafting. Functioning as cellular minipumps for antinociception, human neuronal precursors, like these NT2-derived cell lines, would likely provide a useful adjuvant or replacement for current pharmacological treatments for neuropathic pain.

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-fortime substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Engineering Analysis in Imprecise Geometric Models

Engineering analysis in geometric models has been the main if not the only credible/reasonable tool used by engineers and scientists to resolve physical boundaries problems. New high speed computers have facilitated the accuracy and validation of the expected results. In practice, an engineering analysis is composed of two parts; the design of the model and the analysis of the geometry with the boundary conditions and constraints imposed on it. Numerical methods are used to resolve a large number of physical boundary problems independent of the model geometry. The time expended due to the computational process are related to the imposed boundary conditions and the well conformed geometry. Any geometric model that contains gaps or open lines is considered an imperfect geometry model and major commercial solver packages are incapable of handling such inputs. Others packages apply different kinds of methods to resolve this problems like patching or zippering; but the final resolved geometry may be different from the original geometry, and the changes may be unacceptable. The study proposed in this dissertation is based on a new technique to process models with geometrical imperfection without the necessity to repair or change the original geometry. An algorithm is presented that is able to analyze the imperfect geometric model with the imposed boundary conditions using a meshfree method and a distance field approximation to the boundaries. Experiments are proposed to analyze the convergence of the algorithm in imperfect models geometries and will be compared with the same models but with perfect geometries. Plotting results will be presented for further analysis and conclusions of the algorithm convergence