Genetic algorithms and investment strategies: A global perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: (1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, (2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, (3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and (4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies: A Global Perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: 1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, 2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, 3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and 4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

Optimizing the radiation pattern of smart antennas using genetic algorithms

This work is directed towards optimizing the radiation pattern of smart antennas using genetic algorithms. The structure of the smart antennas based on Space Division Multiple Access (SDMA) is proposed. It is composed of adaptive antennas, each of which has adjustable weight elements for amplitudes and phases of signals. The corresponding radiation pattern formula available for the utilization of numerical optimization techniques is deduced. Genetic algorithms are applied to search the best phase-amplitude weights or phase-only weights with which the optimal radiation pattern can be achieved. ^ One highlight of this work is the proposed optimal radiation pattern concept and its implementation by genetic algorithms. The results show that genetic algorithms are effective for the true Signal-Interference-Ratio (SIR) design of smart antennas. This means that not only nulls can be put in the directions of the interfering signals but also simultaneously main lobes can be formed in the directions of the desired signals. The optimal radiation pattern of a smart antenna possessing SDMA ability has been achieved. ^ The second highlight is on the weight search by genetic algorithms for the optimal radiation pattern design of antennas having more than one interfering signal. The regular criterion for determining which chromosome should be kept for the next step iteration is modified so as to improve the performance of the genetic algorithm iteration. The results show that the modified criterion can speed up and guarantee the iteration to be convergent. ^ In addition, the comparison between phase-amplitude perturbations and phase-only perturbations for the radiation pattern design of smart antennas are carried out. The effects of parameters used by the genetic algorithm on the optimal radiation pattern design are investigated. Valuable results are obtained. ^

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal control with transit signal priority at isolated intersections using parallel genetic algorithms

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal timing is one of the most complex problems in traffic control systems. This dissertation presents a new method that applies the parallel genetic algorithm (PGA) to optimize adaptive traffic signal control in the presence of transit signal priority (TSP). The method can optimize the phase plan, cycle length, and green splits at isolated intersections with consideration for the performance of both the transit and the general vehicles. Unlike the simple genetic algorithm (GA), PGA can provide better and faster solutions needed for real-time optimization of adaptive traffic signal control. ^ An important component in the proposed method involves the development of a microscopic delay estimation model that was designed specifically to optimize adaptive traffic signal with TSP. Macroscopic delay models such as the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) delay model are unable to accurately consider the effect of phase combination and phase sequence in delay calculations. In addition, because the number of phases and the phase sequence of adaptive traffic signal may vary from cycle to cycle, the phase splits cannot be optimized when the phase sequence is also a decision variable. A "flex-phase" concept was introduced in the proposed microscopic delay estimation model to overcome these limitations. ^ The performance of PGA was first evaluated against the simple GA. The results show that PGA achieved both faster convergence and lower delay for both under- or over-saturated traffic conditions. A VISSIM simulation testbed was then developed to evaluate the performance of the proposed PGA-based adaptive traffic signal control with TSP. The simulation results show that the PGA-based optimizer for adaptive TSP outperformed the fully actuated NEMA control in all test cases. The results also show that the PGA-based optimizer was able to produce TSP timing plans that benefit the transit vehicles while minimizing the impact of TSP on the general vehicles. The VISSIM testbed developed in this research provides a powerful tool to design and evaluate different TSP strategies under both actuated and adaptive signal control. ^

A multi-scale assessment of physiological processes in arctic tundra plants under natural and simulated climate change scenarios

Climate warming is predicted to cause an increase in the growing season by as much as 30% for regions of the arctic tundra. This will have a significant effect on the physiological activity of the vascular plant species and the ecosystem as a whole. The need to understand the possible physiological change within this ecosystem is confounded by the fact that research in this extreme environment has been limited to periods when conditions are most favorable, mid June–mid August. This study attempted to develop the most comprehensive understanding to date of the physiological activity of seven tundra plant species in the Alaskan Arctic under natural and lengthened growing season conditions. Four interrelated lines of research, scaling from cellular signals to ecosystem processes, set the foundation for this study. ^ I established an experiment looking at the physiological response of arctic sedges to soil temperature stress with emphasis on the role of the hormone abscisic acid (ABA). A manipulation was also developed where the growing season was lengthened and soils were warmed in an attempt to determine the maximum physiological capacity of these seven vascular species. Additionally, the physiological capacities of four evergreens were tested in the subnivean environment along with the potential role anthocyanins play in their activity. The measurements were scaled up to determine the physiological role of these evergreens in maintaining ecosystem carbon fluxes. ^ These studies determined that soil temperature differentials significantly affect vascular plant physiology. ABA appears to be a physiological modifier that limits stomatal processes when root temperatures are low. Photosynthetic capacity was limited by internal plant physiological mechanisms in the face of a lengthened growing season. Therefore shifts in ecosystem carbon dynamics are driven by changes in species composition and biomass production on a per/unit area basis. These studies also found that changes in soil temperatures will have a greater effect of physiological processes than would the same magnitude of change in air temperature. The subnivean environment exhibits conditions that are favorable for photosynthetic activity in evergreen species. These measurements when scaled to the ecosystem have a significant role in limiting the system's carbon source capacity. ^

Customization of the design of antenna using genetic algorithm and finite-difference time-domain technique

Antenna design is an iterative process in which structures are analyzed and changed to comply with certain performance parameters required. The classic approach starts with analyzing a "known" structure, obtaining the value of its performance parameter and changing this structure until the "target" value is achieved. This process relies on having an initial structure, which follows some known or "intuitive" patterns already familiar to the designer. The purpose of this research was to develop a method of designing UWB antennas. What is new in this proposal is that the design process is reversed: the designer will start with the target performance parameter and obtain a structure as the result of the design process. This method provided a new way to replicate and optimize existing performance parameters. The base of the method was the use of a Genetic Algorithm (GA) adapted to the format of the chromosome that will be evaluated by the Electromagnetic (EM) solver. For the electromagnetic study we used XFDTD™ program, based in the Finite-Difference Time-Domain technique. The programming portion of the method was created under the MatLab environment, which serves as the interface for converting chromosomes, file formats and transferring of data between the XFDTD™ and GA. A high level of customization had to be written into the code to work with the specific files generated by the XFDTD™ program. Two types of cost functions were evaluated; the first one seeking broadband performance within the UWB band, and the second one searching for curve replication of a reference geometry. The performance of the method was evaluated considering the speed provided by the computer resources used. Balance between accuracy, data file size and speed of execution was achieved by defining parameters in the GA code as well as changing the internal parameters of the XFDTD™ projects. The results showed that the GA produced geometries that were analyzed by the XFDTD™ program and changed following the search criteria until reaching the target value of the cost function. Results also showed how the parameters can change the search criteria and influence the running of the code to provide a variety of geometries.

Makespan minimization in a job shop with a batch processing machine

A job shop with one batch processing and several discrete machines is analyzed. Given a set of jobs, their process routes, processing requirements, and size, the objective is to schedule the jobs such that the makespan is minimized. The batch processing machine can process a batch of jobs as long as the machine capacity is not violated. The batch processing time is equal to the longest processing job in the batch. The problem under study can be represented as Jm:batch:Cmax. If no batches were formed, the scheduling problem under study reduces to the classical job shop scheduling problem (i.e. Jm:: Cmax), which is known to be NP-hard. This research extends the scheduling literature by combining Jm::Cmax with batch processing. The primary contributions are the mathematical formulation, a new network representation and several solution approaches. The problem under study is observed widely in metal working and other industries, but received limited or no attention due to its complexity. A novel network representation of the problem using disjunctive and conjunctive arcs, and a mathematical formulation are proposed to minimize the makespan. Besides that, several algorithms, like batch forming heuristics, dispatching rules, Modified Shifting Bottleneck, Tabu Search (TS) and Simulated Annealing (SA), were developed and implemented. An experimental study was conducted to evaluate the proposed heuristics, and the results were compared to those from a commercial solver (i.e., CPLEX). TS and SA, with the combination of MWKR-FF as the initial solution, gave the best solutions among all the heuristics proposed. Their results were close to CPLEX; and for some larger instances, with total operations greater than 225, they were competitive in terms of solution quality and runtime. For some larger problem instances, CPLEX was unable to report a feasible solution even after running for several hours. Between SA and the experimental study indicated that SA produced a better average Cmax for all instances. The solution approaches proposed will benefit practitioners to schedule a job shop (with both discrete and batch processing machines) more efficiently. The proposed solution approaches are easier to implement and requires short run times to solve large problem instances.

The effects of fertilization and simulated grazing on the community structure of a seagrass bed in South Florida

The importance of resource supply and herbivory in driving competitive interactions among species has been an important but contentious issue within ecology. These variables exhibit different effects on species competition when manipulated in isolation but interact when manipulated together. I tested the direct and interactive effects of nutrient addition and simulated grazing (clipping) on the competitive performance of primary producers and community structure of a seagrass bed in South Florida. One square meter experimental plots were established in a mixed seagrass meadow from August 2007 to July 2009. The experiment was a 3 x 3 factorial experiment: 3 fertility treatments: control, medium (2.4 mg N d−1 and 80 µg P day −1) and high (4.8 mg N d−1 and 160 µg P day−1) x 3 clipping intensities (0, 25% and 50 % biomass removal (G)) x 5 replicates for each treatment = 45 plots). Nutrient additions and simulated grazing were done every two months. Fertilization and simulated grazing decreased sexual reproduction in S. filiforme. Fertilization increased competitive dominance within the primary producers while simulated grazing counteracted this effect by removal of the dominant species. Fertilization ameliorated the negative impacts of simulated grazing while simulated grazing prevented competitive exclusion in the fertilized plots. Nutrient addition and simulated grazing both exerted strong control on plant performance and community structure. Neither bottom up nor top down influences was eliminated in treatments where both factors where present. The effects of fertilization on plant performance were marked under all clipping intensities indicating that the system is regulated by nutrient availability both in the presence or absence of grazers. Clipping effects were strong under both fertilized and unfertilized conditions indicating that the seagrass bed can be simultaneously under top-down control by grazers.

Next generation of recommender systems: Algorithms and applications

Personalized recommender systems aim to assist users in retrieving and accessing interesting items by automatically acquiring user preferences from the historical data and matching items with the preferences. In the last decade, recommendation services have gained great attention due to the problem of information overload. However, despite recent advances of personalization techniques, several critical issues in modern recommender systems have not been well studied. These issues include: (1) understanding the accessing patterns of users (i.e., how to effectively model users' accessing behaviors); (2) understanding the relations between users and other objects (i.e., how to comprehensively assess the complex correlations between users and entities in recommender systems); and (3) understanding the interest change of users (i.e., how to adaptively capture users' preference drift over time). To meet the needs of users in modern recommender systems, it is imperative to provide solutions to address the aforementioned issues and apply the solutions to real-world applications. ^ The major goal of this dissertation is to provide integrated recommendation approaches to tackle the challenges of the current generation of recommender systems. In particular, three user-oriented aspects of recommendation techniques were studied, including understanding accessing patterns, understanding complex relations and understanding temporal dynamics. To this end, we made three research contributions. First, we presented various personalized user profiling algorithms to capture click behaviors of users from both coarse- and fine-grained granularities; second, we proposed graph-based recommendation models to describe the complex correlations in a recommender system; third, we studied temporal recommendation approaches in order to capture the preference changes of users, by considering both long-term and short-term user profiles. In addition, a versatile recommendation framework was proposed, in which the proposed recommendation techniques were seamlessly integrated. Different evaluation criteria were implemented in this framework for evaluating recommendation techniques in real-world recommendation applications. ^ In summary, the frequent changes of user interests and item repository lead to a series of user-centric challenges that are not well addressed in the current generation of recommender systems. My work proposed reasonable solutions to these challenges and provided insights on how to address these challenges using a simple yet effective recommendation framework.^

Genetic Diversity and Conservation of Pseudophoenix (Arecaceae) in Hispaniola

The Caribbean genus Pseudophoenix (Arecaceae) has its center of taxonomic diversity in Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic). Three species (P. ekmanii, P. lediniana, and P. vinifera) are restricted to this island. In this thesis I investigated the population genetic diversity and structure of Pseudophoenix using ten microsatellite loci. Results showed homozygote excess and high inbreeding coefficients in all populations across all polymorphic loci. Overall, there was high differentiation among populations. Results from the Bayesian and Neighbor Joining cluster analyses identified groups that were consistence with currently accepted species delimitation. We included the only known population of an undescribed morph from the Dominican Republic that has been suggested to represent a new species. Results from the cluster analyses suggested that this putative species is closely related to P. sargentii from Turk and Caicos. Our study provided insights pertinent to the conservation genetics and management of this genus in Hispaniola.

Algorithms for scheduling parallel batch processing machines with non-identical job ready times

This research is motivated by a practical application observed at a printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing facility. After assembly, the PCBs (or jobs) are tested in environmental stress screening (ESS) chambers (or batch processing machines) to detect early failures. Several PCBs can be simultaneously tested as long as the total size of all the PCBs in the batch does not violate the chamber capacity. PCBs from different production lines arrive dynamically to a queue in front of a set of identical ESS chambers, where they are grouped into batches for testing. Each line delivers PCBs that vary in size and require different testing (or processing) times. Once a batch is formed, its processing time is the longest processing time among the PCBs in the batch, and its ready time is given by the PCB arriving last to the batch. ESS chambers are expensive and a bottleneck. Consequently, its makespan has to be minimized. ^ A mixed-integer formulation is proposed for the problem under study and compared to a formulation recently published. The proposed formulation is better in terms of the number of decision variables, linear constraints and run time. A procedure to compute the lower bound is proposed. For sparse problems (i.e. when job ready times are dispersed widely), the lower bounds are close to optimum. ^ The problem under study is NP-hard. Consequently, five heuristics, two metaheuristics (i.e. simulated annealing (SA) and greedy randomized adaptive search procedure (GRASP)), and a decomposition approach (i.e. column generation) are proposed—especially to solve problem instances which require prohibitively long run times when a commercial solver is used. Extensive experimental study was conducted to evaluate the different solution approaches based on the solution quality and run time. ^ The decomposition approach improved the lower bounds (or linear relaxation solution) of the mixed-integer formulation. At least one of the proposed heuristic outperforms the Modified Delay heuristic from the literature. For sparse problems, almost all the heuristics report a solution close to optimum. GRASP outperforms SA at a higher computational cost. The proposed approaches are viable to implement as the run time is very short. ^

Parameter optimization for noise and vibration reduction associated with position and speed sensorless control of permanent magnet machines at low speed

With the advantages and popularity of Permanent Magnet (PM) motors due to their high power density, there is an increasing incentive to use them in variety of applications including electric actuation. These applications have strict noise emission standards. The generation of audible noise and associated vibration modes are characteristics of all electric motors, it is especially problematic in low speed sensorless control rotary actuation applications using high frequency voltage injection technique. This dissertation is aimed at solving the problem of optimizing the sensorless control algorithm for low noise and vibration while achieving at least 12 bit absolute accuracy for speed and position control. The low speed sensorless algorithm is simulated using an improved Phase Variable Model, developed and implemented in a hardware-in-the-loop prototyping environment. Two experimental testbeds were developed and built to test and verify the algorithm in real time.^ A neural network based modeling approach was used to predict the audible noise due to the high frequency injected carrier signal. This model was created based on noise measurements in an especially built chamber. The developed noise model is then integrated into the high frequency based sensorless control scheme so that appropriate tradeoffs and mitigation techniques can be devised. This will improve the position estimation and control performance while keeping the noise below a certain level. Genetic algorithms were used for including the noise optimization parameters into the developed control algorithm.^ A novel wavelet based filtering approach was proposed in this dissertation for the sensorless control algorithm at low speed. This novel filter was capable of extracting the position information at low values of injection voltage where conventional filters fail. This filtering approach can be used in practice to reduce the injected voltage in sensorless control algorithm resulting in significant reduction of noise and vibration.^ Online optimization of sensorless position estimation algorithm was performed to reduce vibration and to improve the position estimation performance. The results obtained are important and represent original contributions that can be helpful in choosing optimal parameters for sensorless control algorithm in many practical applications.^

Positron emission tomography (PET) tumor segmentation and quantification: Development of new algorithms

Tumor functional volume (FV) and its mean activity concentration (mAC) are the quantities derived from positron emission tomography (PET). These quantities are used for estimating radiation dose for a therapy, evaluating the progression of a disease and also use it as a prognostic indicator for predicting outcome. PET images have low resolution, high noise and affected by partial volume effect (PVE). Manually segmenting each tumor is very cumbersome and very hard to reproduce. To solve the above problem I developed an algorithm, called iterative deconvolution thresholding segmentation (IDTS) algorithm; the algorithm segment the tumor, measures the FV, correct for the PVE and calculates mAC. The algorithm corrects for the PVE without the need to estimate camera's point spread function (PSF); also does not require optimizing for a specific camera. My algorithm was tested in physical phantom studies, where hollow spheres (0.5-16 ml) were used to represent tumors with a homogeneous activity distribution. It was also tested on irregular shaped tumors with a heterogeneous activity profile which were acquired using physical and simulated phantom. The physical phantom studies were performed with different signal to background ratios (SBR) and with different acquisition times (1-5 min). The algorithm was applied on ten clinical data where the results were compared with manual segmentation and fixed percentage thresholding method called T50 and T60 in which 50% and 60% of the maximum intensity respectively is used as threshold. The average error in FV and mAC calculation was 30% and -35% for 0.5 ml tumor. The average error FV and mAC calculation were ~5% for 16 ml tumor. The overall FV error was ∼10% for heterogeneous tumors in physical and simulated phantom data. The FV and mAC error for clinical image compared to manual segmentation was around -17% and 15% respectively. In summary my algorithm has potential to be applied on data acquired from different cameras as its not dependent on knowing the camera's PSF. The algorithm can also improve dose estimation and treatment planning.^

Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Tumor Segmentation and Quantification: Development of New Algorithms

Tumor functional volume (FV) and its mean activity concentration (mAC) are the quantities derived from positron emission tomography (PET). These quantities are used for estimating radiation dose for a therapy, evaluating the progression of a disease and also use it as a prognostic indicator for predicting outcome. PET images have low resolution, high noise and affected by partial volume effect (PVE). Manually segmenting each tumor is very cumbersome and very hard to reproduce. To solve the above problem I developed an algorithm, called iterative deconvolution thresholding segmentation (IDTS) algorithm; the algorithm segment the tumor, measures the FV, correct for the PVE and calculates mAC. The algorithm corrects for the PVE without the need to estimate camera’s point spread function (PSF); also does not require optimizing for a specific camera. My algorithm was tested in physical phantom studies, where hollow spheres (0.5-16 ml) were used to represent tumors with a homogeneous activity distribution. It was also tested on irregular shaped tumors with a heterogeneous activity profile which were acquired using physical and simulated phantom. The physical phantom studies were performed with different signal to background ratios (SBR) and with different acquisition times (1-5 min). The algorithm was applied on ten clinical data where the results were compared with manual segmentation and fixed percentage thresholding method called T50 and T60 in which 50% and 60% of the maximum intensity respectively is used as threshold. The average error in FV and mAC calculation was 30% and -35% for 0.5 ml tumor. The average error FV and mAC calculation were ~5% for 16 ml tumor. The overall FV error was ~10% for heterogeneous tumors in physical and simulated phantom data. The FV and mAC error for clinical image compared to manual segmentation was around -17% and 15% respectively. In summary my algorithm has potential to be applied on data acquired from different cameras as its not dependent on knowing the camera’s PSF. The algorithm can also improve dose estimation and treatment planning.