Essays on exchange rate economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. ^ Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. ^ Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. ^ Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption. ^

Essays on Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.

High energy three -body breakup of three -nucleon systems

The main goal of this dissertation was to study two- and three-nucleon Short Range Correlations (SRCs) in high energy three-body breakup of 3He nucleus in 3He(e, e'NN) N reaction. SRCs are characterized by quantum fluctuations in nuclei during which constituent nucleons partially overlap with each other. ^ A theoretical framework is developed within the Generalized Eikonal Approximation (GEA) which upgrades existing medium-energy methods that are inapplicable for high momentum and energy transfer reactions. High momentum and energy transfer is required to provide sufficient resolution for probing SRCs. GEA is a covariant theory which is formulated through the effective Feynman diagrammatic rules. It allows self-consistent calculation of single and double re-scatterings amplitudes which are present in three-body breakup processes. The calculations were carried out in detail and the analytical result for the differential cross section of 3He(e, e'NN)N reaction was derived in a form applicable for programming and numerical calculations. The corresponding computer code has been developed and the results of computation were compared to the published experimental data, showing satisfactory agreement for a wide range of values of missing momenta. ^ In addition to the high energy approximation this study exploited the exclusive nature of the process under investigation to gain more information about the SRCs. The description of the exclusive 3He( e, e'NN)N reaction has been done using the formalism of the nuclear decay function, which is a practically unexplored quantity and is related to the conventional spectral function through the integration of the phase space of the recoil nucleons. Detailed investigation showed that the decay function clearly exhibits the main features of two- and three-nucleon correlations. Four highly practical types of SRCs in 3He nucleus were discussed in great detail for different orders of the final state re-interactions using the decay function as an unique identifying tool. ^ The overall conclusion in this dissertation suggests that the investigation of the decay function opens up a completely new venue in studies of short range nuclear properties. ^

High energy three-body breakup of three-nucleon systems

The main goal of this dissertation was to study two- and three-nucleon Short Range Correlations (SRCs) in high energy three-body breakup of 3He nucleus in 3He(e, e'NN)N reaction. SRCs are characterized by quantum fluctuations in nuclei during which constituent nucleons partially overlap with each other. A theoretical framework is developed within the Generalized Eikonal Approximation (GEA) which upgrades existing medium-energy methods that are inapplicable for high momentum and energy transfer reactions. High momentum and energy transfer is required to provide sufficient resolution for probing SRCs. GEA is a covariant theory which is formulated through the effective Feynman diagrammatic rules. It allows self-consistent calculation of single and double re-scatterings amplitudes which are present in three-body breakup processes. The calculations were carried out in detail and the analytical result for the differential cross section of 3He(e, e'NN)Nreaction was derived in a form applicable for programming and numerical calculations. The corresponding computer code has been developed and the results of computation were compared to the published experimental data, showing satisfactory agreement for a wide range of values of missing momenta. In addition to the high energy approximation this study exploited the exclusive nature of the process under investigation to gain more information about the SRCs. The description of the exclusive 3He(e, e'NN)N reaction has been done using the formalism of the nuclear decay function, which is a practically unexplored quantity and is related to the conventional spectral function through the integration of the phase space of the recoil nucleons. Detailed investigation showed that the decay function clearly exhibits the main features of two- and three-nucleon correlations. Four highly practical types of SRCs in 3He nucleus were discussed in great detail for different orders of the final state re-interactions using the decay function as an unique identifying tool. The overall conclusion in this dissertation suggests that the investigation of the decay function opens up a completely new venue in studies of short range nuclear properties.

Correlates of Vitamin D Status in Healthy Older Adults Living in Miami-Dade and its Association with Non-Skeletal Outcomes: A Cross-Sectional Study

Examining factors that affect vitamin D status in the fast-growing elderly population of Miami-Dade, Florida, is needed. Vitamin D deficiency in older adults has been linked to correlates of disability, including falls and fractures, and cardiovascular disease. The purpose of this study was to determine the proportion of vitamin D insufficient individuals and their relationship with vitamin D insufficiency in older adults (n=97) living in Miami-Dade. We evaluated the association between vitamin D status and 1) dual task physical performance to understand the link between vitamin D and cognition in the context of mobility; and 2) cardiometabolic risk, measured by galvanic skin response, pulse oximetry, and blood pressure to create a composite score based on autonomic nervous system and endothelial function. Participants completed baseline assessments that included serum levels of vitamin D, anthropometrics, body composition, dual task physical performance and cardiometabolic risk. Surveys to evaluate vitamin D intake, sun exposure, physical activity, and depressive symptoms were completed. Spearman’s correlations, independent t-tests, paired t-tests, repeated measures ANOVAs, and multiple logistic and linear regressions were used to examine the relationship of vitamin D insufficiency (25(OH)D /ml) and sufficiency (25(OH)D ≥30 ng/ml) with determinants of vitamin D status, dual task physical performance variables and cardiometabolic risk scores. Although the proportion of vitamin D insufficient individuals was lower when compared to the prevalance of the general United States elderly population, it was still common in healthy community-dwelling older adults living in Miami-Dade County, especially among Hispanics. Factors that affected skin synthesis (ethnicity, and sun exposure), and bioavailability/metabolism (obesity) were significant predictors of vitamin D status. Vitamin D insufficiency was not significantly correlated with worse dual task physical performance; however, cognitive performance was worse in the vitamin D insufficient group. Our results suggest a relationship of vitamin D insufficiency with executive dysfunction, and support an association with cardiometabolic risk using an innovative electro-sensor complex, possibly by modulating autonomic nervous system activity and vascular function, thus affecting cardiac performance.