Benthic Exchange of C, N, and P Along the Estuarine Ecotone of Lower Taylor Slough, Florida (USA): Effect of Seasonal Flows and Phosphorus Availability

The southern Everglades and Florida Bay have experienced a nearly 50 % reduction in freshwater flow resulting in increased salinity and landward expansion of mangrove forest. Given the marine end-member is a natural source of P to this region, it is necessary to understand the interactions between inflows and P availability in controlling the exchange of materials across the mangrove ecotone. From 2007 to 2008, we used sediment core incubations to quantify fluxes of dissolved inorganic N and P and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in three ecotone areas (dwarf mangrove, pond, and bay). Experiments were repeated seasonally over 2 years involving P-enriched surface water as a factor. We saw consistent uptake of soluble reactive P (SRP), DOC, and nitrate + nitrite (N+N) by the soils/sediments and release of ammonium (NH4 +) from soils/sediments to the water column across all sites and seasons. P enrichment had no discernible effect on DIN or DOC flux, suggesting that rapid P uptake may have been more geochemically mediated. However, uptake of added P occurred across all sites and seasons, reflecting high uptake capacity in this carbonate system and the potential of the mangrove ecotone to sequester P as it becomes more available.

The political economy of inequality and growth: Essays on sovereign debt, democracy and saving

This dissertation addresses three issues in the political economy of growth literature. The first study empirically tests the hypothesis that income inequality influences the size of a country's sovereign debt for a sample of developing countries for the period 1970–1990. The argument examined is that governments tend to yield to popular pressures to engage in redistributive policies, partially financed by foreign borrowing. Facing increased risk of default, international creditors limit the credit they extend, with the result that borrowing countries invest less and grow at a slower pace. The findings do not seem to support the negative relationship between inequality and sovereign debt, as there is evidence of increases in multilateral, countercyclical flows until the mid 1980s in Latin America. The hypothesis would hold for the period 1983–1990. Debt flows and levels seem to be positively correlated with growth as expected. ^ The second study empirically investigates the hypothesis that pronounced levels of inequality lead to unconsolidated democracies. We test the existence of a nonmonotonic relationship between inequality and democracy for a sample of Latin American countries for the period 1970–2000, where democracy appears to consolidate at some intermediate level of inequality. We find that the nonmonotonic relationship holds using instrumental variables methods. Bolivia seems to be a case of unconsolidated democracy. The positive relationship between per capita income and democracy disappears once fixed effects are introduced. ^ The third study explores the nonlinear relationship between per capita income and private saving levels in Latin America. Several estimation methods are presented; however, only the estimation of a dynamic specification through a state-of-the-art general method of moments estimator yields consistent estimates with increased efficiency. Results support the hypothesis that income positively affects private saving, while system GMM reveals nonlinear effects at income levels that exceed the ones included in this sample for the period 1960–1994. We also find that growth, government dissaving, and tightening of credit constraints have a highly significant and positive effect on private saving. ^

Development of an integrated surface and subsurface model of Everglades National Park

An integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model of Everglades National Park (ENP) was developed using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 modeling software. The model has a resolution of 400 meters, covers approximately 1050 square miles of ENP, includes 110 miles of drainage canals with a variety of hydraulic structures, and processes hydrological information, such as evapotranspiration, precipitation, groundwater levels, canal discharges and levels, and operational schedules. Calibration was based on time series and probability of exceedance for water levels and discharges in the years 1987 through 1997. Model verification was then completed for the period of 1998 through 2005. Parameter sensitivity in uncertainty analysis showed that the model was most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity of the regional Surficial Aquifer System, the Manning's roughness coefficient, and the leakage coefficient, which defines the canal-subsurface interaction. The model offers an enhanced predictive capability, compared to other models currently available, to simulate the flow regime in ENP and to forecast the impact of topography, water flows, and modifying operation schedules.

Smoke on the water: the interplay of fire and water flow on Everglades restoration

Recent research makes clear that much of the Everglade’s flora and fauna have evolved to tolerate or require frequent fires. Nevertheless, restoration of the Everglades has thus far been conceptualized as primarily a water reallocation project. These two forces are directly linked by the influence of water flows on fire fuel moisture content, and are indirectly linked through a series of complex feedback loops. This interaction is made more complex by the alteration and compartmentalization of current water flows and fire regimes, the lack of communication between water and fire management agencies, and the already imperiled state of many local species. It is unlikely, therefore, that restoring water flows will automatically restore the appropriate fire regimes, leaving the prospect of successful restoration in some doubt. The decline of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow, and its potential for recovery, illustrates the complexity of the situation.

Evidence of Recent Phosphorus Enrichment in Surface Soils of Taylor Slough and Northeast Everglades National Park

Everglades National Park (ENP) is the last hydrologic unit in the series of impounded marsh units that make up the present-day Everglades. The ENP receives water from upstream Water Conservation Areas via canals and water control structures that are highly regulated for flood control, water supply, wildlife management, concerns about poor water quality and the potential for downstream ecosystem degradation. Recent surveys of surface soils in ENP, designed for random sampling for spatial analysis of soil nutrients, did not sample proximate to inflow structures and thus did not detect increased soil phosphorus associated with these water conveyances. This study specifically addressed these areas in a focused sampling effort at three key inflow points in northeast ENP which revealed elevated soil TP proximate to inflows. Two transects extending down Shark River Slough and one down Taylor Slough (a natural watershed of particular ecological value) were found to have soil TP levels in excess of 500 mg kg−1—a threshold above which P enrichment is indicated. These findings suggest the negative impact of elevated water (P) from surface flows and support the assertion that significant soil TP enrichment is occurring in Taylor Slough and other areas of northeastern ENP.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Eulerian-Lagrangian two phase debris flow model

The main objective of this work is to develop a quasi three-dimensional numerical model to simulate stony debris flows, considering a continuum fluid phase, composed by water and fine sediments, and a non-continuum phase including large particles, such as pebbles and boulders. Large particles are treated in a Lagrangian frame of reference using the Discrete Element Method, the fluid phase is based on the Eulerian approach, using the Finite Element Method to solve the depth-averaged Navier-Stokes equations in two horizontal dimensions. The particle’s equations of motion are in three dimensions. The model simulates particle-particle collisions and wall-particle collisions, taking into account that particles are immersed in a fluid. Bingham and Cross rheological models are used for the continuum phase. Both formulations provide very stable results, even in the range of very low shear rates. Bingham formulation is better able to simulate the stopping stage of the fluid when applied shear stresses are low. Results of numerical simulations have been compared with data from laboratory experiments on a flume-fan prototype. Results show that the model is capable of simulating the motion of big particles moving in the fluid flow, handling dense particulate flows and avoiding overlap among particles. An application to simulate debris flow events that occurred in Northern Venezuela in 1999 shows that the model could replicate the main boulder accumulation areas that were surveyed by the USGS. Uniqueness of this research is the integration of mud flow and stony debris movement in a single modeling tool that can be used for planning and management of debris flow prone areas.

A conceptual model of ecological interactions in the mangrove estuaries of the Florida Everglades

A brackish water ecotone of coastal bays and lakes, mangrove forests, salt marshes, tidal creeks, and upland hammocks separates Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico from the freshwater Everglades. The Everglades mangrove estuaries are characterized by salinity gradients that vary spatially with topography and vary seasonally and inter-annually with rainfall, tide, and freshwater flow from the Everglades. Because of their location at the lower end of the Everglades drainage basin, Everglades mangrove estuaries have been affected by upstream water management practices that have altered the freshwater heads and flows and that affect salinity gradients. Additionally, interannual variation in precipitation patterns, particularly those caused to El Nin˜o events, control freshwater inputs and salinity dynamics in these estuaries. Two major external drivers on this system are water management activities and global climate change. These drivers lead to two major ecosystem stressors: reduced freshwater flow volume and duration, and sea-level rise. Major ecological attributes include mangrove forest production, soil accretion, and resilience; coastal lake submerged aquatic vegetation; resident mangrove fish populations; wood stork (Mycteria americana) and roseate spoonbill (Platelea ajaja) nesting colonies; and estuarine crocodilian populations. Causal linkages between stressors and attributes include coastal transgression, hydroperiods, salinity gradients, and the ‘‘white zone’’ freshwater/estuarine interface. The functional estuary and its ecological attributes, as influenced by sea level and freshwater flow, must be viewed as spatially dynamic, with a possible near-term balancing of transgression but ultimately a long-term continuation of inland movement. Regardless of the spatio-temporal timing of this transgression, a salinity gradient supportive of ecologically functional Everglades mangrove estuaries will be required to maintain the integrity of the South Florida ecosystem.

Bankruptcy Situation Model in Small Business: The Case of Restaurant Firms

The purpose of this paper is to describe and discuss the current bankruptcy prediction models. This is done in the context of pros and cons of proposed models to determine the appropriate factors of failure phenomenon in cases involving restaurants that have filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11. A sample of 11 restaurant companies that filed for bankruptcy between 1993 and 2003 were identified from the Form 8-K reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). By applying financial ratios retrieved from the annual reports which contain, income statements, balance sheets, statements of cash flows, and statements of stockholders’ equity (or deficit) to the Atlman’s mode, Springate model, and Fulmer’s model. The study found that Atlman’s model for the non-manufacturing industry provided the most accurate bankruptcy predictions.

Summertime Influences of Tidal Energy Advection on the Surface Energy Balance in a Mangrove Forest

Mangrove forests are ecosystems susceptible to changing water levels and temperatures due to climate change as well as perturbations resulting from tropical storms. Numerical models can be used to project mangrove forest responses to regional and global environmental changes, and the reliability of these models depends on surface energy balance closure. However, for tidal ecosystems, the surface energy balance is complex because the energy transport associated with tidal activity remains poorly understood. This study aimed to quantify impacts of tidal flows on energy dynamics within a mangrove ecosystem. To address the research objective, an intensive 10-day study was conducted in a mangrove forest located along the Shark River in the Everglades National Park, FL, USA. Forest–atmosphere turbulent exchanges of energy were quantified with an eddy covariance system installed on a 30-m-tall flux tower. Energy transport associated with tidal activity was calculated based on a coupled mass and energy balance approach. The mass balance included tidal flows and accumulation of water on the forest floor. The energy balance included temporal changes in enthalpy, resulting from tidal flows and temperature changes in the water column. By serving as a net sink or a source of available energy, flood waters reduced the impact of high radiational loads on the mangrove forest. Also, the regression slope of available energy versus sink terms increased from 0.730 to 0.754 and from 0.798 to 0.857, including total enthalpy change in the water column in the surface energy balance for 30-min periods and daily daytime sums, respectively. Results indicated that tidal inundation provides an important mechanism for heat removal and that tidal exchange should be considered in surface energy budgets of coastal ecosystems. Results also demonstrated the importance of including tidal energy advection in mangrove biophysical models that are used for predicting ecosystem response to changing climate and regional freshwater management practices.

Eulerian-Lagrangian Two Phase Debris Flow Model

The main objective of this work is to develop a quasi three-dimensional numerical model to simulate stony debris flows, considering a continuum fluid phase, composed by water and fine sediments, and a non-continuum phase including large particles, such as pebbles and boulders. Large particles are treated in a Lagrangian frame of reference using the Discrete Element Method, the fluid phase is based on the Eulerian approach, using the Finite Element Method to solve the depth-averaged Navier–Stokes equations in two horizontal dimensions. The particle’s equations of motion are in three dimensions. The model simulates particle-particle collisions and wall-particle collisions, taking into account that particles are immersed in a fluid. Bingham and Cross rheological models are used for the continuum phase. Both formulations provide very stable results, even in the range of very low shear rates. Bingham formulation is better able to simulate the stopping stage of the fluid when applied shear stresses are low. Results of numerical simulations have been compared with data from laboratory experiments on a flume-fan prototype. Results show that the model is capable of simulating the motion of big particles moving in the fluid flow, handling dense particulate flows and avoiding overlap among particles. An application to simulate debris flow events that occurred in Northern Venezuela in 1999 shows that the model could replicate the main boulder accumulation areas that were surveyed by the USGS. Uniqueness of this research is the integration of mud flow and stony debris movement in a single modeling tool that can be used for planning and management of debris flow prone areas.

Characteristics of surface-water flows in the ridge and slough landscape of Everglades National Park: implications for particulate transport

Over the last one hundred years, compartmentalization and water management activities have reduced water flow to the ridge and slough landscape of the Everglades. As a result, the once corrugated landscape has become topographically and vegetationally uniform. The focus of this study was to quantify variation in surface flow in the ridge and slough landscape and to relate flow conditions to particulate transport and deposition. Over the 2002–2003 and 2003–2004 wet seasons, surface velocities and particulate accumulation were measured in upper Shark River Slough in Everglades National Park. Landscape characteristics such as elevation, plant density and biomass also were examined to determine their impact on flow characteristics and material transport. The results of this study demonstrate that the release of water during the wet season not only increases water levels, but also increased flow speeds and particulate transport and availability. Further, flow speeds were positively and significantly correlated with water level thereby enhancing particulate transport in sloughs relative to ridges especially during peak flow periods. Our results also indicate that the distribution of biomass in the water column, including floating plants and periphyton, affects velocity magnitude and shape of vertical profiles, especially in the sloughs where Utricularia spp. and periphyton mats are more abundant. Plot clearing experiments suggest that the presence of surface periphyton and Utricularia exert greater control over flow characteristics than the identity (i.e., sawgrass or spike rush) or density of emergent macrophytes, two parameters frequently incorporated into models describing flow through vegetated canopies. Based on these results, we suggest that future modeling efforts must take the presence of floating biomass, such as Utricularia, and presence of periphyton into consideration when describing particulate transport.