Development of local homeland security networks in the state of Florida: A social network analysis approach

How do local homeland security organizations respond to catastrophic events such as hurricanes and acts of terrorism? Among the most important aspects of this response are these organizations ability to adapt to the uncertain nature of these "focusing events" (Birkland 1997). They are often behind the curve, seeing response as a linear process, when in fact it is a complex, multifaceted process that requires understanding the interactions between the fiscal pressures facing local governments, the institutional pressures of working within a new regulatory framework and the political pressures of bringing together different levels of government with different perspectives and agendas. ^ This dissertation has focused on tracing the factors affecting the individuals and institutions planning, preparing, responding and recovering from natural and man-made disasters. Using social network analysis, my study analyzes the interactions between the individuals and institutions that respond to these "focusing events." In practice, it is the combination of budgetary, institutional, and political pressures or constraints interacting with each other which resembles a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). ^ To investigate this system, my study evaluates the evolution of two separate sets of organizations composed of first responders (Fire Chiefs, Emergency Management Coordinators) and community volunteers organized in the state of Florida over the last fifteen years. Using a social network analysis approach, my dissertation analyzes the interactions between Citizen Corps Councils (CCCs) and Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) in the state of Florida from 1996–2011. It is the pattern of interconnections that occur over time that are the focus of this study. ^ The social network analysis revealed an increase in the amount and density of connections between these organizations over the last fifteen years. The analysis also exposed the underlying patterns in these connections; that as the networks became more complex they also became more decentralized though not in any uniform manner. The present study brings to light a story of how communities have adapted to the ever changing circumstances that are sine qua non of natural and man-made disasters.^

GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

ALBA: A Political Tool for Venezuela’s Foreign Policy

Despite its founding by Hugo Chávez on the heels of the failed Free Trade Area for the Americas (FTAA) negotiations which took place November 2003, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA, as it is known for its Spanish acronym) has evolved into a political tool that uses “social power” to facilitate Venezuela‟s positioning as the leader of the anti-U.S. agenda in the region. Fostering political favors and goodwill through the financing of social development projects, ALBA has created a political environment whereby countries on the take and their respective leaders seem deterred from taking public opposing viewpoints to Chávez. To that end, it has provided billions in economic aid to several nations in Latin American and the Caribbean, winning their favor and support for its policies. To date, ALBA counts on eight member nations. Besides Venezuela, it includes Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. It also has several observer nations, among them, Grenada, Haiti, Paraguay, Uruguay, and a non-Latin American country, Syria. Throughout its recent history Venezuela has used its oil wealth to pursue political capital. Under the Chávez government it is doing so as part of a strategic effort countering the U.S. Following Cuba‟s demise in the region as the anti-American socialist camp leader, Chávez is attempting to step into Cuba‟s shoes, picking up where Cuba left off over a decade ago and has used the ALBA as a mechanism to help promote his foreign policy. Relying on its own resources, not those of the Soviet Union as Cuba once did, Venezuela has already shown its influence in the international arena, challenging U.S. positions at the Organization of American States (OAS), the United Nations, and even in matters having little if nothing to do with the region, such as Iran‟s nuclear proliferation. Taking advantage of Venezuela‟s oil prices bonanza, Chávez has been spreading economic aid throughout the region, funding several development projects. From stepping in to buy Bolivia‟s soy beans when the U.S. ceased doing so, to helping finance and construct an airport in Dominica, Venezuela‟s ALBA has provided assistance to many states in the region. As in the past, Venezuela has invested significantly both in time and money in the Caribbean, providing development assistance and oil at a discount to Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the Dominican Republic, although the latter two are neither member nor observer states of ALBA. The aid Chávez has been spreading around may be coming at a cost. It seems it has begun to cause cracks within the CARICOM community, where ALBA already counts on six of its 15 members, leading experts and leaders in the region to question traditional alliances to each other and the U.S. Yet, ALBA‟s ability to influence through aid is dependent on the Venezuelan economy. Its success hinges on continued Venezuelan oil sales at stable prices and the ability of Chávez to remain in power.

The New Transatlantic Bonanza: Cocaine on Highway 10.

The 10th Parallel marine and aerial routes linking South America and West Africa harbor a long history of trade between the two continents. More recently, these routes have become one of the preferred routes used by Latin American traffickers for shipping multi-tons of cocaine destined for the growing European market. The Parallel’s growing importance in cocaine trafficking has made it known as cocaine “Highway 10” among law enforcement. Latin American cocaine trafficking organizations, particularly the Colombian ones, have established stable bases in West Africa, controlling and developing the route. West African facilitators, Nigerians as well as an increasing number of nationals from all countries where shipments are stocked, have developed a stronger capacity for taking over more ambitious and lucrative role in the business as transporters, partners, and final buyers. In one case (Guinea), the West African partner had already started developing his own trafficking and manufacturing capacity, reproducing the patterns that made Colombia the business model of the drug industry. In this reshaped context, of particular concern is the role played by the Colombian FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) as provider of cocaine shipments to West African cocaine entrepreneurs, as well as the impact of drug trafficking money on the financing of terrorist and rebel groups operating in the Sahel-Saharan belt.

Islamist Cyber Networks in Spanish-Speaking Latin America

Despite significant concern among policy, law enforcement and intelligence communities in the United States (U.S.) over the possible spread of radical Islamist thought throughout the world as part of a global jihad movement, there has been little investigation into the growing cyber networks in Latin America that promote strong anti-Semitic and anti-U.S. messages. This paper offers an overview of that network, focusing on the structure of Shi’ite websites that promote not only religious conversion but are also supportive of Iran -- a designated State-sponsor of terrorism – its nuclear program. Hezbollah, and the “Bolivarian revolution” led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. There is also a smaller group of Sunni Muslim websites, mostly tied to the legacy organizations of the Muslim Brotherhood. Many of the Shi’ite websites are linked to each other consistently portray Israel as a Nazi State, and the United States as an imperialist war monger. The Palestinian issue is frequently juxtaposed with the anti-imperialist struggle that those states supporting Chávez’ Bolivarian revolution claim to wage against the United States. Some of the Islamist websites claim thousands of new convert, but such claims are difficult to verify. Most of the websites visited touted the conversion of one or two individuals as significant victories and signs of progress, implying that there are few, if any, mass conversions. While conducting this research, no websites directly claiming to be linked to Hezbollah were found, although there numerous sites hosted by that group that were active until around 2006. Several of the inactive links are supportive of Hezbollah as a political party. No websites linked to al Qaeda were found. Yet a substantial Internet network remains operational. Much of the outreach for Shi’ite Muslims, closely tied to Iran, is sponsored on numerous websites across the region, including El Salvador, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico and Bolivia. Numerous Facebook forums for discussion are also hosted around Latin America. These links must be viewed in the context of the rapidly expanding diplomatic, intelligence, political and economic ties of Iran in recent years with the self-proclaimed Bolivarian states. Given the sparse literature available and the rich vein of un-mined information on the sites cited as well as others that one could find with additional research, the cyber network of Islamist groups remains one of the least understood or studied facets of their presence in Latin America and the Caribbean. It merits significantly more investigation.

Lender Liability: The Legal and Management Effects on the Hospitality Industry

With the savings and loan crisis and the tail end of a recession at hand, the '90s are bound to be a difficult decade for the financing of hospitality operations through borrowing from commercial lenders. The authors discuss one of the least known dangers associated with borrowing, lender liability. The issue is discussed from both a legal and managerial perspective.

Predicting Financial Sources for the Lodging Industry

Given the various changes that have occurred in the financing of the lodging industry, investors and developers interested in the industry are concerned about future sources of capital and the terms at which they will be available. This article presents results of a Delphi study which illustrates the extent to which individual financial institutions are expected to provide capital to the lodging industry and looks at terms and criteria used to make loans.

Drivers of Innovation In Financing Transportation Infrastructure: A Systemic Investigation

Traditional methods of financing infrastructure, which include gas taxation, tax-exempt bonds, and reserve funds, have not been able to meet the growing demand for infrastructure. Innovative financing systems have emerged to close the gap that exists between the available and needed financing sources. The objective of the study presented in this paper is to assess determinants of innovative financing in the U.S. transportation infrastructure using a systemic approach. Innovation System of Systems approach is adopted for systemic assessment and a case-based research approach is utilized to explore the constituents of innovative financing for U.S. transportation infrastructure. The findings, which include constructs regarding the players, practices, and activities are used to create a model to enable understanding the dynamics of the drivers and inhibitors of innovation and, thus, to derive implications for practice. The model along with the constructs provides an analytical tool for practitioners in the U.S. transportation infrastructure.

Assessment of policies for innovative financing in infrastructure systems

Infrastructure systems are drivers of the economy in the nation. A dollar spent on infrastructure development yields roughly double the initial spending in ultimate economic output in the short term; and over a twenty-year period, and generalized ‘public investment’ produces an aggregated $3.21 of economic activity per $1.00 spent [1]. Thus, formulation of policies pertaining to infrastructure investment and development is of significance affecting the social and economic wellbeing of the nation. The aim of this policy brief is to evaluate innovative financing in infrastructure systems from two different perspectives: (1) through consideration of the current condition of infrastructure in the U.S., the current trends in public spending, and the emerging innovative financing tools; (2) through evaluation of the roles and interactions of different agencies in the creation and the diffusion of innovative financing tools. Then using the example of transportation financing, the policy brief provides an assessment of policy landscapes which could lead to the closure of infrastructure financing gap in the U.S and proposes strategies for citizen involvement to gain public support of innovative financing.