Guatemala: A Failing State?

 Guatemala is not a failed state and is unlikely to become one in the near future. Although the state currently fails to provide adequate security to its citizens or an appropriate range of effective social programs, it does supply a functioning electoral democracy, sound economic management, and a promising new antipoverty program, My Family Progresses (MIFAPRO).  Guatemala is a weak state. The principal security threats represented by expanding Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), criminal parallel powers, and urban gangs have overwhelmed the resources of the under-resourced and compromised criminal justice system. The UN-sponsored International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), however, has demonstrated that progress against organized crime is possible.  The principal obstacles to strengthening the Guatemalan state lie in the traditional economic elite’s resistance to taxation and the venal political class’ narrow focus on short-term interests. Guatemala lacks a strong, policyoriented, mass-based political party that could develop a coherent national reform program and mobilize public support around it.  The United States should strengthen the Guatemalan state by expanding the Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI) and by strongly supporting CICIG, MIFAPRO, and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

Civilizing the tropics: The highlanders' failed attempt to transform the Colombian Amazon, 1850--1930

The subject of this dissertation is the nature of the environmental transformations, both symbolic and physical, that took place in Colombia between 1850 and 1930. This period begins with the attempt by the Colombian elite to leave behind colonial ties, overcome economic disorganization, and link Colombia to the international market. These efforts were part of a general project to “civilize” this tropical country. The period closes with the transition toward an industrialization and urbanization process led by the Colombian state during the 1930s. ^ Frequently, environmental studies as an academic field are dominated by biological concerns. However, most environmental thinking accepts their interdisciplinary nature. Under this framework not only spatial but also symbolic concerns are key elements in understanding environmental transformations. ^ This study finds that despite several attempts to transform the Colombian landscape physically, most of the substantive changes were localized and circumscribed to the Andean region. Other changes were mainly symbolic. This dissertation thus uses the Amazon as one of several regions that did not experience significant changes in the forest canopy. While highlanders originally dreamed of the Amazon as an untapped El Dorado, their failed attempts to exploit the region caused them to imagine it as a nightmarish “green hell”. ^ This dissertation concentrates on three pairs of concepts: tropicality/civilization, landscape/territory, and symbolic/material changes. It presents both a general vision of Colombia and case studies of three regions: Cundinamarca, and Cauca Valley are used to compare with the Amazon region that is developed at length. Whereas mainstream Colombian histories have either fixated on the Andean highlands or, in a relegated second place, on the Caribbean region, this dissertation attempts to significantly contribute to the historiography of Colombia by focusing on the largely neglected Amazonian region. ^ To understand imageries about Colombia's landscape, the dissertation relies on travel writings, chorographic descriptions and maps. It also makes uses legal documents and other published primary sources, including literary pieces and memoirs. ^

State collapse and politicized identity: Somalia and Sudan

Scholarship on how to rebuild failed or collapsed states provides scant theoretical guidance in the search for specific warning signs or mechanisms of collapsing states. This thesis argues that state collapse is a societal response to an identity crisis politicized by the state apparatus in response to a legitimation crisis. As regime legitimacy deteriorates, identity politics are deployed to build support for the regime, but typically at the cost of increasing other forces of internal conflict. Absent a mediating force to suppress internal conflict, the state collapses once the regime has been removed. Somalia and Sudan proceeded through this trajectory during their civil wars, though with different outcomes. Somalia fragmented into clan and subclan groups that continued their inimical relationship perpetuating the war following Siyad Barre's coup. Sudan maintained two core identity groups separated by the implementation of sharia that survived each state legitimation crisis, though the state's physical solidity endured.

The Current State of Argentina's Oil Industry

An oil wealthy country, Argentina has repeatedly tried and failed to capitalize on its potential. The unfortunate energy policies of subsequent Argentinean government and a lack of investment capital have been two of the main reasons that have significantly limited the production of export oil in the recent past. Yet, with recent discoveries and changes to the country’s hydrocarbon laws, there may be a new dawn for Argentina’s oil industry. Since 1999 when Argentina’s oil production peaked at approximately 800,000 barrels per day, there has been a 24 percent decrease in its oil output. The country’s oil reserves have also been in steady decline. Yet, the recently enacted reforms by Argentina’s government to incentivize foreign investment in the oil industry seem to be working, allowing investors to negotiate the terms of exploration directly with local governments. As a result, foreign investment is increasing, as well as new willingness to finance exploration of untapped reserves. Also, the discovery of shale oil in Argentina may provide the potential to become a key exporter in the region. Nonetheless, there are challenges that need to be overcome and it may be years before the various oil projects underway become profitable. The success of current oil projects, coupled with the potential of shale oil, new discoveries and the sustainability of the current energy policy reforms will likely determine if Argentina is finally able to fulfill its potential and exert itself as an oil exporter country in Latin America.

Natural Disasters and Comparative State-Formation and Nation-Building: Earthquakes in Argentina and Chile (1822-1939)

Natural disasters in Argentina and Chile played a significant role in the state-formation and nation-building process (1822-1939). This dissertation explores state and society responses to earthquakes by studying public and private relief efforts reconstruction plans, crime and disorder, religious interpretations of catastrophes, national and transnational cultures of disaster, science and technology, and popular politics. Although Argentina and Chile share a political border and geological boundary, the two countries provide contrasting examples of state formation. Most disaster relief and reconstruction efforts emanated from the centralized Chilean state in Santiago. In Argentina, provincial officials made the majority of decisions in a catastrophe’s aftermath. Patriotic citizens raised money and collected clothing for survivors that helped to weave divergent regions together into a nation. The shared experience of earthquakes in all regions of Chile created a national disaster culture. Similarly, common disaster experiences, reciprocal relief efforts, and aid commissions linked Chileans with Western Argentine societies and generated a transnational disaster culture. Political leaders viewed reconstruction as opportunities to implement their visions for the nation on the urban landscape. These rebuilding projects threatened existing social hierarchies and often failed to come to fruition. Rebuilding brought new technologies from Europe to the Southern Cone. New building materials and systems, however, had to be adapted to the South American economic and natural environment. In a catastrophe’s aftermath, newspapers projected images of disorder and the authorities feared lawlessness and social unrest. Judicial and criminal records, however, show that crime often decreased after a disaster. Finally, nineteenth-century earthquakes heightened antagonism and conflict between the Catholic Church and the state. Conservative clergy asserted that disasters were divine punishments for the state’s anti-clerical measures and later railed against scientific explanations of earthquakes.