Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Florida Bay, South Florida, using benthic foraminifera

Efforts that are underway to rehabilitate the Florida Bay ecosystem to a more natural state are best guided by a comprehensive understanding of the natural versus human-induced variability that has existed within the ecosystem. Benthic foraminifera, which are well-known paleoenvironmental indicators, were identified in 203 sediment samples from six sediment cores taken from Florida Bay, and analyzed to understand the environmental variability through anthropogenically unaltered and altered periods. In this research, taxa serving as indicators of (1) seagrass abundance (which is correlated with water quality), (2) salinity, and (3) general habitat change, were studied in detail over the past 120 years, and more generally over the past ~4000 years. Historical seagrass abundance was reconstructed with the proportions of species that prefer living attached to seagrass blades over other substrates. Historical salinity trends were determined by analyzing brackish versus marine faunas, which were defined based on species’ salinity preferences. Statistical methods including cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, analysis of variance and Fisher’s α were used to analyze trends in the data. The changes in seagrass abundance and salinity over the last ~120 years are attributed to anthropogenic activities such as construction of the Flagler Railroad from the mainland to the Florida Keys, the Tamiami Trail that stretches from the east to west coast, and canals and levees in south Florida, as well as natural events such as droughts and increased rainfall from hurricanes. Longer term changes (over ~4000 years) in seagrass abundance and salinity are mostly related to sea level changes. Since seawater entered the Florida Bay area around ~4000 years ago, only one probable sea level drop occurring around ~3000 years was identified.

Ecological indicators for assessing and communicating seagrass status and trends in Florida Bay

A suite of seagrass indicator metrics is developed to evaluate four essential measures of seagrass community status for Florida Bay. The measures are based on several years of monitoring data using the Braun-Blanquet Cover Abundance (BBCA) scale to derive information about seagrass spatial extent, abundance, species diversity and presence of target species. As ecosystem restoration proceeds in south Florida, additional freshwater will be discharged to Florida Bay as a means to restore the bay's hydrology and salinity regime. Primary hypotheses about restoring ecological function of the keystone seagrass community are based on the premise that hydrologic restoration will increase environmental variability and reduce hypersalinity. This will create greater niche space and permit multiple seagrass species to co-exist while maintaining good environmental conditions for Thalassia testudinum, the dominant climax seagrass species. Greater species diversity is considered beneficial to habitat for desired higher trophic level species such as forage fish and shrimp. It is also important to maintenance of a viable seagrass community that will avoid die-off events observed in the past. Indicator metrics are assigned values at the basin spatial scale and are aggregated to five larger zones. Three index metrics are derived by combining the four indicators through logic gates at the zone spatial scale and aggregated to derive a single bay-wide system status score standardized on the System-wide Indicator protocol. The indicators will provide a way to assess progress toward restoration goals or reveal areas of concern. Reporting for each indicator, index and overall system status score is presented in a red–yellow–green format that summarizes information in a readily accessible form for mangers, policy-makers and stakeholders in planning and implementing an adaptive management strategy.

Effects of an extreme temperature event on the behavior and age structure of an estuarine top predator, Carcharhinus leucas

The frequency of extreme environmental events is predicted to increase in the future. Understanding the short- and long-term impacts of these extreme events on large-bodied predators will provide insight into the spatial and temporal scales at which acute environmental disturbances in top-down processes may persist within and across ecosystems. Here, we use long-term studies of movements and age structure of an estuarine top predator—juvenile bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas—to identify the effects of an extreme ‘cold snap’ from 2 to 13 January 2010 over short (weeks) to intermediate (months) time scales. Juvenile bull sharks are typically year-round residents of the Shark River Estuary until they reach 3 to 5 yr of age. However, acoustic telemetry revealed that almost all sharks either permanently left the system or died during the cold snap. For 116 d after the cold snap, no sharks were detected in the system with telemetry or captured during longline sampling. Once sharks returned, both the size structure and abundance of the individuals present in the nursery had changed considerably. During 2010, individual longlines were 70% less likely to capture any sharks, and catch rates on successful longlines were 40% lower than during 2006−2009. Also, all sharks caught after the cold snap were young-of-the-year or neonates, suggesting that the majority of sharks in the estuary were new recruits and several cohorts had been largely lost from the nursery. The longer-term impacts of this change in bull shark abundance to the trophic dynamics of the estuary and the importance of episodic disturbances to bull shark population dynamics will require continued monitoring, but are of considerable interest because of the ecological roles of bull sharks within coastal estuaries and oceans.

Coral disease dynamics and environmental drivers in the northern Florida Keys and Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas

Coral reefs are experiencing declines worldwide and recently coral diseases have been identified as significant contributors to coral mortality. However, little is known regarding the factors that drive coral disease distributions and dynamics. Current knowledge of the organisms that cause coral diseases is also limited, with pathogens having been identified for only 5 of the 21 described coral diseases. The study presented here describes coral disease dynamics in terms of occurrence, prevalence, spatial distribution, and host species susceptibility from 2002--2004 on reefs of the Northern Florida Keys (NFK) and Lee Stocking Island (LSI) in the Bahamas' Exuma chain. In addition, this research investigated the influence of temperature, sediment, and nutrient availability on coral disease prevalence and severity. Finally, microbial communities associated with a polymicrobial disease, black band, were examined to address spatial and temporal variability. ^ Four scleractinian diseases were observed in repeated surveys conducted during June-August of each year: black band disease (BBD), white plague type 2 (WP), dark spots syndrome (DSS), and yellow band disease-(YBD). Coral disease prevalence was generally low in both the NFK and LSI as compared to epizootic levels reported previously in the NFK and other regions of the Caribbean. Disease prevalence and species susceptibility varied spatially and temporally. Massive framework species, including Siderastrea siderea, Colpophyllia natans, and Montastraea annularis, along with relatively smaller colonies of Meandrina meandrites and Dichocoenia stokesi, were most susceptible to disease. Temperature, sedimentation, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen were positively correlated with BBD infections. Furthermore, experimental nutrient enrichment exacerbated coral tissue loss to BBD both in situ and in vivo. Profiling of BBD microbial communities using length heterogeneity PCR revealed variation over space and time, with significantly distinct bacterial assemblages in the NFK, LSI, and US Virgin Islands. ^ This study contributes to knowledge of the relationship between coral diseases and the environment, and facilitates predictions regarding potential changes in coral reef communities under differing environmental conditions. Additionally, this research provides further understanding of coral disease dynamics at both the host and microbial pathogen levels.^

Carbon (d13c) and Nitrogen (d15n) Isotopic Discrimination in Mangroves in Florida Coastal Everglades as a Function of Environmental Stress

Isotope signatures of mangrove leaves can vary depending on discrimination associated with plant response to environmental stressors defined by gra­dients of resources (such as water and nutrient limitation) and regulators (such as salinity and sul­fide toxicity). We tested the variability of man­grove isotopic signatures (d13C and d15N) across a stress gradient in south Florida, using green leaves from four mangrove species collected at six sites. Mangroves across the landscape studied are stressed by resource and regulator gradients repre­sented by limited phosphorus concentrations com­bined with high sulfide concentrations, respec­tively. Foliar d13C ratios exhibited a range from ­ 24.6 to –32.7‰, and multiple regression analysis showed that 46% of the variability in mangrove d13C composition could be explained by the differ­ences in dissolved inorganic nitrogen, soluble reac­tive phosphorus, and sulfide porewater concentra­tions. 15N discrimination in mangrove species ranged from –0.1 to 7.7‰, and porewater N, salin­ity, and leaf N:Pa ratios accounted for 41% of this variability in mangrove leaves. The increase in soil P availability reduced 15N discrimination due to higher N demand. Scrub mangroves (<1.5 m tall) are more water-use efficient, as indicated by higher d13C; and have greater nutrient use efficiency ratios of P than do tall mangroves (5 to 10 m tall) existing in sites with greater soil P concentrations. The high variability of mangrove d13C and d15N across these resource and regulator gradients could be a con­founding factor obscuring the linkages between mangrove wetlands and estuarine food webs. These results support the hypothesis that landscape fac­tors may control mangrove structure and function, so that nutrient biogeochemistry and mangrove-based food webs in adjacent estuaries should ac­count for watershed-specific organic inputs.

Impact of Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence from diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Correspondence of historic salinity fluctuations in Florida Bay, USA, to atmospheric variability and anthropogenic changes

Florida Bay is a highly dynamic estuary that exhibits wide natural fluctuations in salinity due to changes in the balance of precipitation, evaporation and freshwater runoff from the mainland. Rapid and large-scale modification of freshwater flow and construction of transportation conduits throughout the Florida Keys during the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries reshaped water circulation and salinity patterns across the ecosystem. In order to determine long-term patterns in salinity variation across the Florida Bay estuary, we used a diatom-based salinity transfer function to infer salinity within 3.27 ppt root mean square error of prediction from diatom assemblages from four ~130 year old sediment records. Sites were distributed along a gradient of exposure to anthropogenic shifts in the watershed and salinity. Precipitation was found to be the primary driver influencing salinity fluctuations over the entire record, but watershed modifications on the mainland and in the Florida Keys during the late-1800s and 1900s were the most likely cause of significant shifts in baseline salinity. The timing of these shifts in the salinity baseline varies across the Bay: that of the northeastern coring location coincides with the construction of the Florida Overseas Railway (AD 1906–1916), while that of the east-central coring location coincides with the drainage of Lake Okeechobee (AD 1881–1894). Subsequent decreases occurring after the 1960s (east-central region) and early 1980s (southwestern region) correspond to increases in freshwater delivered through water control structures in the 1950s–1970s and again in the 1980s. Concomitant increases in salinity in the northeastern and south-central regions of the Bay in the mid-1960s correspond to an extensive drought period and the occurrence of three major hurricanes, while the drop in the early 1970s could not be related to any natural event. This paper provides information about major factors influencing salinity conditions in Florida Bay in the past and quantitative estimates of the pre- and post-South Florida watershed modification salinity levels in different regions of the Bay. This information should be useful for environmental managers in setting restoration goals for the marine ecosystems in South Florida, especially for Florida Bay.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Dissolved Organic Matter Quantity and Composition in an Oilgotrophic Subtropical Coastal Wetland

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an essential component of the carbon cycle and a critical driver in controlling variety of biogeochemical and ecological processes in wetlands. The quality of this DOM as it relates to composition and reactivity is directly related to its sources and may vary on temporal and spatial scales. However, large scale, long-term studies of DOM dynamics in wetlands are still scarce in the literature. Here we present a multi-year DOM characterization study for monthly surface water samples collected at 14 sampling stations along two transects within the greater Everglades, a subtropical, oligotrophic, coastal freshwater wetland-mangrove-estuarine ecosystem. In an attempt to assess quantitative and qualitative variations of DOM on both spatial and temporal scales, we determined dissolved organic carbon (DOC) values and DOM optical properties, respectively. DOM quality was assessed using, excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence coupled with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). Variations of the PARAFAC components abundance and composition were clearly observed on spatial and seasonal scales. Dry versus wet season DOC concentrations were affected by dry-down and re-wetting processes in the freshwater marshes, while DOM compositional features were controlled by soil and higher plant versus periphyton sources respectively. Peat-soil based freshwater marsh sites could be clearly differentiated from marl-soil based sites based on EEM–PARAFAC data. Freshwater marsh DOM was enriched in higher plant and soil-derived humic-like compounds, compared to estuarine sites which were more controlled by algae- and microbial-derived inputs. DOM from fringe mangrove sites could be differentiated between tidally influenced sites and sites exposed to long inundation periods. As such coastal estuarine sites were significantly controlled by hydrology, while DOM dynamics in Florida Bay were seasonally driven by both primary productivity and hydrology. This study exemplifies the application of long term optical properties monitoring as an effective technique to investigate DOM dynamics in aquatic ecosystems. The work presented here also serves as a pre-restoration condition dataset for DOM in the context of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP).

Multi-Tissue Stable Isotope Analysis and Acoustic Telemetry Reveal Seasonal Variability in the Trophic Interactions of Juvenile Bull Sharks in a Coastal Estuary

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic drivers affect extant food webs is critical to predicting the impacts of climate change and habitat alterations on ecosystem dynamics. In the Florida Everglades, seasonal reductions in freshwater flow and precipitation lead to annual migrations of aquatic taxa from marsh habitats to deep-water refugia in estuaries. The timing and intensity of freshwater reductions, however, will be modified by ongoing ecosystem restoration and predicted climate change. Understanding the importance of seasonally pulsed resources to predators is critical to predicting the impacts of management and climate change on their populations. As with many large predators, however, it is difficult to determine to what extent predators like bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) in the coastal Everglades make use of prey pulses currently. We used passive acoustic telemetry to determine whether shark movements responded to the pulse of marsh prey. To investigate the possibility that sharks fed on marsh prey, we modelled the predicted dynamics of stable isotope values in bull shark blood and plasma under different assumptions of temporal variability in shark diets and physiological dynamics of tissue turnover and isotopic discrimination. Bull sharks increased their use of upstream channels during the late dry season, and although our previous work shows long-term specialization in the diets of sharks, stable isotope values suggested that some individuals adjusted their diets to take advantage of prey entering the system from the marsh, and as such this may be an important resource for the nursery. Restoration efforts are predicted to increase hydroperiods and marsh water levels, likely shifting the timing, duration and intensity of prey pulses, which could have negative consequences for the bull shark population and/or induce shifts in behaviour. Understanding the factors influencing the propensity to specialize or adopt more flexible trophic interactions will be an important step in fully understanding the ecological role of predators and how ecological roles may vary with environmental and anthropogenic changes.

Impact of Late Holocene Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence From Diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Rainfall variability in the upper Napo River Basin, Ecuadorian Amazon

The purpose of this research was to investigate the influence of elevation and other terrain characteristics over the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. A comparative analysis was conducted between several methods of spatial interpolations using mean monthly precipitation values in order to select the best. Following those previous results it was possible to fit an Artificial Neural Network model for interpolation of monthly precipitation values for a period of 20 years, with input values such as longitude, latitude, elevation, four geomorphologic characteristics and anchored by seven weather stations, it reached a high correlation coefficient (r=0.85). This research demonstrated a strong influence of elevation and other geomorphologic variables over the spatial distribution of precipitation and the agreement that there are nonlinear relationships. This model will be used to fill gaps in time-series of monthly precipitation, and to generate maps of spatial distribution of monthly precipitation at a resolution of 1km2.

Evidence of climate variability and tropical cyclone activity from diatom assemblage dynamics in coastal southwest Florida

Estuaries are dynamic on many spatial and temporal scales. Distinguishing effects of unpredictable events from cyclical patterns can be challenging but important to predict the influence of press and pulse drivers in the face of climate change. Diatom assemblages respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions and characterize change on multiple time scales. The goals of this research were to 1) characterize diatom assemblages in the Charlotte Harbor watershed, their relationships with water quality parameters, and how they change in response to climate; and 2) use assemblages in sediment cores to interpret past climate changes and tropical cyclone activity. ^ Diatom assemblages had strong relationships with salinity and nutrient concentrations, and a quantitative tool was developed to reconstruct past values of these parameters. Assemblages were stable between the wet and dry seasons, and were more similar to each other than to assemblages found following a tropical cyclone. Diatom assemblages following the storm showed a decrease in dispersion among sites, a pattern that was consistent on different spatial scales but may depend on hydrological management regimes. ^ Analysis of sediment cores from two southwest Florida estuaries showed that locally-developed diatom inference models can be applied with caution on regional scales. Large-scale climate changes were suggested by environmental reconstructions in both estuaries, but with slightly different temporal pacing. Estimates of salinity and nutrient concentrations suggested that major hydrological patterns changed at approximately 5.5 and 3 kyrs BP. A highly temporally-resolved sediment core from Charlotte Harbor provided evidence for past changes that correspond with known climate records. Diatom assemblages had significant relationships with the three-year average index values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Assemblages that predicted low salinity and high total phosphorus also had the lowest dispersion and corresponded with some major storms in the known record, which together may provide a proxy for evidence of severe storms in the paleoecological record. ^

Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.