Temporal analysis of land use and transportation investments with geographic information system

Land use and transportation interaction has been a research topic for several decades. There have been efforts to identify impacts of transportation on land use from several different perspectives. One focus has been the role of transportation improvements in encouraging new land developments or relocation of activities due to improved accessibility. The impacts studied have included property values and increased development. Another focus has been on the changes in travel behavior due to better mobility and accessibility. Most studies to date have been conducted in metropolitan level, thus unable to account for interactions spatially and temporally at smaller geographic scales. ^ In this study, a framework for studying the temporal interactions between transportation and land use was proposed and applied to three selected corridor areas in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The framework consists of two parts: one is developing of temporal data and the other is applying time series analysis to this temporal data to identify their dynamic interactions. Temporal GIS databases were constructed and used to compile building permit data and transportation improvement projects. Two types of time series analysis approaches were utilized: univariate models and multivariate models. Time series analysis is designed to describe the dynamic consequences of time series by developing models and forecasting the future of the system based on historical trends. Model estimation results from the selected corridors were then compared. ^ It was found that the time series models predicted residential development better than commercial development. It was also found that results from three study corridors varied in terms of the magnitude of impacts, length of lags, significance of the variables, and the model structure. Long-run effect or cumulated impact of transportation improvement on land developments was also measured with time series techniques. The study offered evidence that congestion negatively impacted development and transportation investments encouraged land development. ^

Effects of Land Use on Sources and Ages of Inorganic and Organic Carbon in Temperate Headwater Streams

The amounts, sources and relative ages of inorganic and organic carbon pools were assessed in eight headwater streams draining watersheds dominated by either forest, pasture, cropland or urban development in the lower Chesapeake Bay region (Virginia, USA). Streams were sampled at baseflow conditions six different times over 1 year. The sources and ages of the carbon pools were characterized by isotopic (δ13C and ∆14C) analyses and excitation emission matrix fluorescence with parallel factor analysis (EEM–PARAFAC). The findings from this study showed that human land use may alter aquatic carbon cycling in three primary ways. First, human land use affects the sources and ages of DIC by controlling different rates of weathering and erosion. Relative to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in forested streams which originated primarily from respiration of young, 14C-enriched organic matter (OM; δ13C = −22.2 ± 3 ‰; ∆14C = 69 ± 14 ‰), DIC in urbanized streams was influenced more by sedimentary carbonate weathering (δ13C = −12.4 ± 1 ‰; ∆14C = −270 ± 37 ‰) and one of pasture streams showed a greater influence from young soil carbonates (δ13C = −5.7 ± 2.5 ‰; ∆14C = 69 ‰). Second, human land use alters the proportions of terrestrial versus autochthonous/microbial sources of stream water OM. Fluorescence properties of dissolved OM (DOM) and the C:N of particulate OM (POM) suggested that streams draining human-altered watersheds contained greater relative contributions of DOM and POM from autochthonous/microbial sources than forested streams. Third, human land uses can mobilize geologically aged inorganic carbon and enable its participation in contemporary carbon cycling. Aged DOM (∆14C = −248 to −202 ‰, equivalent14C ages of 1,811–2,284 years BP) and POM (∆14C = −90 to −88 ‰, 14C ages of 669–887 years BP) were observed exclusively in urbanized streams, presumably a result of autotrophic fixation of aged DIC (−297 to −244 ‰, 14C age = 2,251–2,833 years BP) from sedimentary shell dissolution and perhaps also watershed export of fossil fuel carbon. This study demonstrates that human land use may have significant impacts on the amounts, sources, ages and cycling of carbon in headwater streams and their associated watersheds.

A Cultural Historical Study of Land Use in Dade County, Florida

Humans have used the land within the area currently defined as Dade County, Florida since around 11,000 B.P., but did not significantly alter the local environment until less than one hundred years ago. These recent changes greatly affected many critical ecological factors, thereby reducing the sustainability of many types of life, including humans. This study explains how land use evolved from earlier sustainable systems for satisfying human needs into the current menacing patterns. This is done by examining the environmental, technological, social, and cognitive contexts of land use through time. Changes in all these areas have followed a general trend leading to increasing intensity of land use and environmental change driven by population growth and technological innovation.

Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.

Analysis of Land Use Change as a Method of Predicting Water Demands in an Urbanizing Environment: Redland, Miami-Dade County, Florida

The fluctuation in water demand in the Redland community of Miami-Dade County was examined using land use data from 2001 and 2011 and water estimation techniques provided by local and state agencies. The data was converted to 30 m mosaicked raster grids that indicated land use change, and associated water demand measured in gallons per day per acre. The results indicate that, first, despite an increase in population, water demand decreased overall in Redland from 2001 to 2011. Second, conversion of agricultural lands to residential lands actually caused a decrease in water demand in most cases while acquisition of farmland by public agencies also caused a sharp decline. Third, conversion of row crops and groves to nurseries was substantial and resulted in a significant increase in water demand in all such areas converted. Finally, estimating water demand based on land use, rather than population, is a more accurate approach.

Use of conjoint analysis to examine beliefs related to the practice of early literacy instruction

The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship between teacher beliefs and actual classroom practice in early literacy instruction. Conjoint analysis was used to measure teachers' beliefs on four early literacy factors—phonological awareness, print awareness, graphophonic awareness, and structural awareness. A collective case study format was then used to measure the correspondence of teachers' beliefs with their actual classroom practice. ^ Ninety Project READS participants were given twelve cards in an orthogonal experimental design describing students that either met or did not meet criteria on the four early literacy factors. Conjoint measurements of whether the student is an efficient reader were taken. These measurements provided relative importance scores for each respondent. Based on the relative important scores, four teachers were chosen to participate in a collective case study. ^ The conjoint results enabled the clustering of teachers into four distinct groups, each aligned with one of the four early literacy factors. K-means cluster analysis of the relative importance measurements showed commonalities among the ninety respondents' beliefs. The collective case study results were mixed. Implications for researchers and practitioners include the use of conjoint analysis in measuring teacher beliefs on the four early literacy factors. Further, the understanding of teacher preferences on these beliefs may assist in the development of curriculum design and therefore increase educational effectiveness. Finally, comparisons between teachers' beliefs on the four early literacy factors and actual instructional practices may facilitate teacher self-reflection thus encouraging positive teacher change. ^

Demographic effects of thatch harvest and implications for sustainable use of irapai palm (Lepidocaryum tenue, Mart.), by riverine communities in the Peruvian Amazon

Lepidocaryum tenue Mart. (Arecaceae) is a small, understory palm of terra firme forests of the western and central Amazon basin. Known as irapai, it is used for roof thatch by Amazonian peoples who collect its leaves from the wild and generate income from its fronds and articles fabricated from them. Increasing demand has caused local concern that populations are declining. Cultivation attempts have been unsuccessful. The purpose of this study was to investigate market conditions and quantify population dynamics and demographic responses of harvested and unharvested irapai growing near Iquitos, Peru. ^ Ethnobotanical research included participant surveys to determine movement of thatch tiles, called crisnejas, through Moronacocha Port. I also conducted a seed germination trial, and for four years studied five populations growing in communities with similar topography and soils but different land tenure and management strategies. Stage, survival, leaf production, and reproductive transitions were used to calculate ramet demographic rates and develop population projection matrices. ^ Weavers made an average of 20–30 crisnejas per day (90–130 leaves each), and earned US$0.09 to 0.70 each (US$1.80 to 21.00 per day). Average crisnejas per month sold per vendor was 2,955 with a profit range of US$0.05 to 0.32 per crisneja. Wholesalers worked with capital outlay from US$100 to 400, and an estimated ten to twenty vendors could be found at a given time. Consumers paid between US$0.23 to 1.20 per crisneja. Although differences in demographic rates by location existed, most were not significant enough to attribute to management. ^ After 60 months, mean seed germination rate was 19.5% in all media (37.9% in peat). Seedling survival was less than two percent after twelve months. Annual palm mortality was three percent, and occurred disproportionately in small (<50 cm) palms. Small palms grew more in height. Unharvested palms grew less than harvested palms. Large palms (≥50 cm) produced more leaves, were more likely to reproduce, and collectors harvested them more frequently. Reproductive potentials (sexual and asexual) were low. Population growth rates were greater than or not significantly different from 1.0, indicating populations maintained or increased in size. Current levels of irapai harvest appear sustainable. DNA analysis of stems and recruits is recommended to understand population composition and stage-specific asexual fecundity. ^

A tapestry of land uses and land covers typify our study site. Here, a commercial farm surrounds a new residential development.

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

The use of computer technology to compare and analyze community college dissertations

A purpose of this research study was to demonstrate the practical linguistic study and evaluation of dissertations by using two examples of the latest technology, the microcomputer and optical scanner. That involved developing efficient methods for data entry plus creating computer algorithms appropriate for personal, linguistic studies. The goal was to develop a prototype investigation which demonstrated practical solutions for maximizing the linguistic potential of the dissertation data base. The mode of text entry was from a Dest PC Scan 1000 Optical Scanner. The function of the optical scanner was to copy the complete stack of educational dissertations from the Florida Atlantic University Library into an I.B.M. XT microcomputer. The optical scanner demonstrated its practical value by copying 15,900 pages of dissertation text directly into the microcomputer. A total of 199 dissertations or 72% of the entire stack of education dissertations (277) were successfully copied into the microcomputer's word processor where each dissertation was analyzed for a variety of syntax frequencies. The results of the study demonstrated the practical use of the optical scanner for data entry, the microcomputer for data and statistical analysis, and the availability of the college library as a natural setting for text studies. A supplemental benefit was the establishment of a computerized dissertation corpus which could be used for future research and study. The final step was to build a linguistic model of the differences in dissertation writing styles by creating 7 factors from 55 dependent variables through principal components factor analysis. The 7 factors (textual components) were then named and described on a hypothetical construct defined as a continuum from a conversational, interactional style to a formal, academic writing style. The 7 factors were then grouped through discriminant analysis to create discriminant functions for each of the 7 independent variables. The results indicated that a conversational, interactional writing style was associated with more recent dissertations (1972-1987), an increase in author's age, females, and the department of Curriculum and Instruction. A formal, academic writing style was associated with older dissertations (1972-1987), younger authors, males, and the department of Administration and Supervision. It was concluded that there were no significant differences in writing style due to subject matter (community college studies) compared to other subject matter. It was also concluded that there were no significant differences in writing style due to the location of dissertation origin (Florida Atlantic University, University of Central Florida, Florida International University).