Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^

Innovating from the War Economy: Formal, Informal, and Illicit Economic Activities of the Military in Colombia

Over the last decade, the Colombian military has successfully rolled back insurgent groups, cleared and secured conflict zones, and enabled the extraction of oil and other key commodity exports. As a result, official policies of both the Uribe and Santos governments have promoted the armed forces to participate to an unprecedented extent in economic activities intended to consolidate the gains of the 2000s. These include formal involvement in the economy, streamlined in a consortium of military enterprises and social foundations that are intended to put the Colombian defense sector “on the map” nationally and internationally, and informal involvement expanded mainly through new civic action development projects intended to consolidate the security gains of the 2000s. However, failure to roll back paramilitary groups other than through the voluntary amnesty program of 2005 has facilitated the persistence of illicit collusion by military forces with reconstituted “neoparamilitary” drug trafficking groups. It is therefore crucially important to enhance oversight mechanisms and create substantial penalties for collusion with illegal armed groups. This is particularly important if Colombia intends to continue its new practice of exporting its security model to other countries in the region. The Santos government has initiated several promising reforms to enhance state capacity, institutional transparence, and accountability of public officials to the rule of law, which are crucial to locking in security gains and revitalizing democratic politics. Efforts to diminish opportunities for illicit association between the armed forces and criminal groups should complement that agenda, including the following: Champion breaking existing ties between the military and paramilitary successor groups through creative policies involving a mixture of punishments and rewards directed at the military; Investigation and extradition proceedings of drug traffickers, probe all possible ties, including as a matter of course the possibility of Colombian military collaboration. Doing so rigorously may have an important effect deterring military collusion with criminal groups. Establish and enforce zero-tolerance policies at all military ranks regarding collusion with criminal groups; Reward military units that are effective and also avoid corruption and criminal ties by providing them with enhanced resources and recognition; Rely on the military for civic action and development assistance as minimally as possible in order to build long-term civilian public sector capacity and to reduce opportunities for routine exposure of military forces to criminal groups circulating in local populations.

The influence of neighbourhood formality status and socio-economic position on self-rated health among adult men and women: a multilevel, cross sectional, population study from Aleppo, Syria

Background There is substantial evidence from high income countries that neighbourhoods have an influence on health independent of individual characteristics. However, neighbourhood characteristics are rarely taken into account in the analysis of urban health studies from developing countries. Informal urban neighbourhoods are home to about half of the population in Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria (population>2.5 million). This study aimed to examine the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) and formality status on self-rated health (SRH) of adult men and women residing in formal and informal urban neighbourhoods in Aleppo. Methods The study used data from 2038 survey respondents to the Aleppo Household Survey, 2004 (age 18–65 years, 54.8% women, response rate 86%). Respondents were nested in 45 neighbourhoods. Five individual-level SES measures, namely education, employment, car ownership, item ownership and household density, were aggregated to the level of neighbourhood. Multilevel regression models were used to investigate associations. Results We did not find evidence of important SRH variation between neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood average of household item ownership was associated with a greater likelihood of reporting excellent SRH in women; odds ratio (OR) for an increase of one item on average was 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.4 (versus poor SRH)) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.5 (versus normal SRH)), adjusted for individual characteristics and neighbourhood formality. After controlling for individual and neighbourhood SES measures, women living in informal neighbourhoods were less likely to report poor SRH than women living in formal neighbourhoods (OR= 0.4; 95% CI (0.2- 0.8) (versus poor SRH) and OR=0.5; 95%; CI (0.3-0.9) (versus normal SRH). Conclusions Findings support evidence from high income countries that certain characteristic of neighbourhoods affect men and women in different ways. Further research from similar urban settings in developing countries is needed to understand the mechanisms by which informal neighbourhoods influence women’s health.

Syndemic health disparities and resilience processes related to HIV transmission risk among African American/Black men in south Florida

Rates of HIV infection continue to climb among minority populations and men who have sex with men (MSM), with African American/Black MSM being especially impacted. Numerous studies have found HIV transmission risk to be associated with many health and social disparities resulting from larger environmental and structural forces. Using anthropological and social environment-based theories of resilience that focus on individual agency and larger social and environmental structures, this dissertation employed a mixed methods design to investigate resilience processes among African American/Black MSM.^ Quantitative analyses compared African American/Black (N=108) and Caucasian/White (N=250) MSM who participated in a previously conducted randomized controlled trial (RCT) of sexual and substance use risk reduction interventions. At RCT study entry, using past 90 day recall periods, there were no differences in unprotected sex frequency, however African American/Black MSM reported higher frequencies of days high (P<0.000), and drugs and sex used in combination (P<0.000), and substance dependence (P<0.000) and lower levels of social support (P<0.024) compared to Caucasian/White MSM. At 12- month follow-up, multi-level statistical models found that African American/Black MSM reduced their frequencies of days high and unprotected sex at greater rates than Caucasian/White MSM (P<0.001).^ Qualitative data collected among a sub-sample of African American/Black MSM from the RCT (N=21) described the men's experiences of living with multiple health and social disparities and the importance of RCT study assessments in facilitating reductions in risk behaviors. A cross-case analysis showed different resilience processes undertaken by men who experienced low socioeconomic status, little family support, and homophobia (N=16) compared to those who did not (N=5).^ The dissertation concludes that resilience processes to HIV transmission risk and related health and social disparities among African American/Black MSM varies and are dependent on specific social environmental factors, including social relationships, structural homophobia, and access to social, economic, and cultural capital. Men define for themselves what it means to be resilient within their social environment. These conclusions suggest that both individual and structural-level resilience-based HIV prevention interventions are needed.^

Menem's Argentina : economic reform and democracy in the late twentieth century

A study of the possible correlation between drastic neo-liberal economic reform and the undermining of democratic mechanisms in late twentieth century Argentina. The adoption of free market mechanisms, within the Modern Political Economy theoretical perspective, may tend to erode the workings of western style democracy leading to a situation of increased domestic sociopolitical and economic tensions in Argentina. The foregoing is especially applicable as the continues to endeavors to maintain its neo-liberal economic reform program on track.

Syndemic Health Disparities and Resilience Processes Related to HIV Transmission Risk among African American/Black Men in South Florida

Rates of HIV infection continue to climb among minority populations and men who have sex with men (MSM), with African American/Black MSM being especially impacted. Numerous studies have found HIV transmission risk to be associated with many health and social disparities resulting from larger environmental and structural forces. Using anthropological and social environment-based theories of resilience that focus on individual agency and larger social and environmental structures, this dissertation employed a mixed methods design to investigate resilience processes among African American/Black MSM. Quantitative analyses compared African American/Black (N=108) and Caucasian/White (N=250) MSM who participated in a previously conducted randomized controlled trial (RCT) of sexual and substance use risk reduction interventions. At RCT study entry, using past 90 day recall periods, there were no differences in unprotected sex frequency, however African American/Black MSM reported higher frequencies of days high (P Qualitative data collected among a sub-sample of African American/Black MSM from the RCT (N=21) described the men’s experiences of living with multiple health and social disparities and the importance of RCT study assessments in facilitating reductions in risk behaviors. A cross-case analysis showed different resilience processes undertaken by men who experienced low socioeconomic status, little family support, and homophobia (N=16) compared to those who did not (N=5). The dissertation concludes that resilience processes to HIV transmission risk and related health and social disparities among African American/Black MSM varies and are dependent on specific social environmental factors, including social relationships, structural homophobia, and access to social, economic, and cultural capital. Men define for themselves what it means to be resilient within their social environment. These conclusions suggest that both individual and structural-level resilience-based HIV prevention interventions are needed.

An Institutional, Socio-economic, and Legal Analysis of Fisheries Co-management and Regulation in the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica

Marine Areas for Responsible Artisanal Fishing (AMPR) have emerged as a new model for co-managing small-scale fisheries in Costa Rica, one that involves collaboration between fishers, government agencies and NGOs. This thesis aims to examine the context for collective action and co-management by small-scale fishers; evaluate the design, implementation, and enforcement of AMPRs; and conduct a linguistic analysis of fisheries legislation. The present work relies on the analysis of several types of qualitative data, including interviews with 23 key informants, rapid rural assessments, and legal documents. Findings demonstrate the strong influence of economic factors for sustaining collective action, as well as the importance of certain types of external organizations for community development and co-management. Additionally, significant enforcement gaps and institutional deficiencies were identified in the work of regulating agencies. Legal analysis suggests that mechanisms for government accountability are unavailable and that legal discourse reflects some of the most salient problems in management.

Knowledge of HIV transmission risk behavior, and perceptions of risk among Haitian women living in Miami, Florida

This study was conducted to gain a more comprehensive understanding of HIV risk among Haitian women. The variables measured were: knowledge of HIV transmission, sexual risk behaviors, and perceptions of risk among Haitian women. The sociocultural aspect of the Haitian women's lives with regard to their risky behaviors was also examined. A total of 101 Haitian women (aged 25-53) who attended two comprehensive health clinics were interviewed. A combined questionnaire derived from both the ARM-Q and the RBA was used. In general, the women had good knowledge of the sexual transmission of HIV I AIDS and indicated that they were susceptible to HIV infection. However, knowledge and perceptions of risk were not translated into sexual risk-reduction behaviors with their partners. Multiplicity of partners and low incidence of condom use were the two major sexual risk factors isolated in this study. Results indicate Haitian women were more likely to use condoms if they possessed greater HIV knowledge and their sexual partners held more positive attitudes toward using condoms. Also, Haitian women may have failed to protect themselves because behavior changes could have involved threats to their social and economic survival, relationships and culturally sanctioned roles. This suggests the need to include male partners in HIV prevention interventions with Haitian women. Future research should focus on preventing high-risk behavior by improving knowledge, altering the male partners' attitudes toward condoms, and enhancing communication and negotiation skills. Nursing implications and recommendations for culturally sensitive and relevant AIDS prevention efforts are discussed.