Cuba: From Economic Take-Off to Collapse under Castro

This flyer promotes a book presentation of "Cuba: From Economic Take-off to Collapse under Castro" by co-authors Jorge Salazar-Carrillo and Andro Nodarse-Leon.The book reviews Cuba's economic success pre-Castro, and concludes the Fidel Castro's revolution has been an economic disaster for Cuba. This event was Cosponsored by the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at FIU and will be held on December 15,2015 at Books & Books in Coral Gables, FL.

Tocqueville in Miami: Political culture and political organizing in Miami's Cuban community

This study examines the effectiveness of civic organizations focusing on leadership and the role of culture in politics. The study is based on a quasi-experimental research design and relies primarily on qualitative data. The study focuses on Miami's Cuban community in order to examine the role of public initiative in grassroots civic and community organizations. ^ The Miami Cuban community is a large, institutionally complex and cohesive ethnic community with dense networks of community organizations. The political and economic success of the community makes it an opportune setting for a study of civic organizing. The sheer number of civic organizations to be found in Miami's Cuban community suggests that the community's civic organizations have something to do with the considerable vibrancy and civic capacity of the community. How have the organizations managed to be so successful over so many years and what can be learned about successful civic organizing from their experience?^ Civic organizations in Miami's Cuban community are overwhelmingly ethnic-based organizations. The organizations recreate collective symbols that come from community members' memories of and attachments to the place of origin they hold dear as ethnic Cubans. They recreate a collective Cuban past that community members remember and that is the very basis of the community to which they belong.^ Cuban Miami's ethnically based civic organizations have generally performed better than the literature on civic organizations says they should. They gained greater access to community ties and social capital, and they exhibited greater organizational longevity. The fit between the political culture of civic organizations and that of the broader political community helps to explain this success. Yet they do not perform in the same way or in support of the same social purposes. Some stress individual agency rather than community agency, and some pursue an externally-oriented social purpose, whereas others focus on building an internal community.^

Tocqueville in Miami : political culture and political organizing in Miami's Cuban community

This study examines the effectiveness of civic organizations focusing on leadership and the role of culture in politics. The study is based on a quasi-experimental research design and relies primarily on qualitative data. The study focuses on Miami's Cuban community in order to examine the role of public initiative in grassroots civic and community organizations. The Miami Cuban community is a large, institutionally complex and cohesive ethnic community with dense networks of community organizations. The political and economic success of the community makes it an opportune setting for a study of civic organizing. The sheer number of civic organizations to be found in Miami's Cuban community suggests that the community's civic organizations have something to do with the considerable vibrancy and civic capacity of the community. How have the organizations managed to be so successful over so many years and what can be learned about successful civic organizing from their experience? Civic organizations in Miami's Cuban community are overwhelmingly ethnic-based organizations. The organizations recreate collective symbols that come from community members' memories of and attachments to the place of origin they hold dear as ethnic Cubans. They recreate a collective Cuban past that community members remember and that is the very basis of the community to which they belong. Cuban Miami's ethnically based civic organizations have generally performed better than the literature on civic organizations says they should. They gained greater access to community ties and social capital, and they exhibited greater organizational longevity. The fit between the political culture of civic organizations and that of the broader political community helps to explain this success. Yet they do not perform in the same way or in support of the same social purposes. Some stress individual agency rather than community agency, and some pursue an externally-oriented social purpose, whereas others focus on building an internal community.

The effects of required/sequenced preparatory courses on academic success and retention at a community college

This dissertation had two purposes: first, to analyze how required sequenced college preparatory courses in mathematics, reading, and writing affect students' academic success and, second, to add to a theoretical model for predicting student retention at a community college. Grade point average, number of degree credits earned, and re-enrollment rate were measured as determinants of academic success. The treatment group had a significantly higher grade point average than the control group. There was no significant difference in the number of degree credits earned or re-enrollment rate for the groups. A series of logistic regressions used the independent variables E-ASSET scores in math, reading, and writing; number of college prep areas required; credits earned; grade point average; students' status; academic restrictions/required course sequencing; sex; race; and socio-economic status to determine the predictor variables for retention. The academic variable that showed the greatest potential as a predictor for retention was grade point average. Overall, receiving financial aid was the greatest predictor for re-enrollment. For a financial aid recipient the odds of re-enrollment were 2.70 times more likely than if no financial aid was received.

An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

Venezuela and Chile: Two Opposite Paths of Democratic Consolidation and Economic Development.

In the past 20 years, Chile and Venezuela have followed divergent paths of democratic and economic development. When the Cold War ended, Venezuela was one of the few Latin American countries where democracy had survived the authoritarian wave of the 1960 and 1970s. Heralded in the late 1980s as the most stable democracy and one of the most developed and globalized economies in the region, Venezuela has since experienced deterioration of democratic institutions, political polarization, economic stagnation, and instability. In contrast, Chile has experienced a democratic renaissance since 1990. Rapid economic growth, an increasingly efficient public sector, significant reductions in poverty, and improvements in social programs have all made Chile a regional leader in democratic consolidation and sustainable development. Chile emerges as a success story and Venezuela as a country lagging behind in terms of making progress in economic development and poverty reduction. While Chile has developed a democratic system based on institutions, Venezuela has seen its democracy evolve towards increasing concentration of power on the hands of President Hugo Chávez.

Rio and the Reds: The Comando Vermelho, Organized Crime and Brazil’s Economic Ascent [Student’s Paper Series]

Brazil’s growing status as a potential world power cannot obscure the characteristics of its other reality: that of a country with vast inequalities and high crime rates. The Comando Vermelho, the most prominent organized crime syndicate in Rio de Janeiro, besieges the beauty and charm that attracts tourists to this city. The CV arose not only as a product of the political dictatorship of the seventies, but also of the disenfranchised urban poor crammed into Rio’s favela slums. Today, the CV presents a powerful challenge to the State’s control of parts of Rio territory. As Brazil’s soft power projection grows, it is seriously challenged by its capacity to eliminate organized crime. Economic growth is not sufficient to destroy a deeply embedded organization like the CV. In fact, Brazil’s success may yet further retrench the CV’s activities. Culpability for organized crime cannot be merely limited to the gangs, but must also be shared among the willing consumers, among whom can be found educated and elite members of society, as well as the impoverished and desperate. The Brazilian government needs a top-down response addressing the schism between rich and poor. However, Brazil’s citizens must also take responsibility and forge a bottom-up response to the drug- and corruption-riddled elements of its most respected members of society. Brazil must target reform across public health, housing, education and above all, law enforcement. Without such changes, Brazil will remain a two-track democracy. Rio’s wealthy will still be able to revel in the city’s beauty albeit from behind armored cars and fortified mansions, while the city’s poor will yield – either as victims or perpetrators – to the desperate measures of organized crime.

Variables affecting the success of older applicants for employment in a public organization: An age -cued cognitive model of administrative decision-making

The dissertation takes a multivariate approach to answer the question of how applicant age, after controlling for other variables, affects employment success in a public organization. In addition to applicant age, there are five other categories of variables examined: organization/applicant variables describing the relationship of the applicant to the organization; organization/position variables describing the target position as it relates to the organization; episodic variables such as applicant age relative to the ages of competing applicants; economic variables relating to the salary needs of older applicants; and cognitive variables that may affect the decision maker's evaluation of the applicant. ^ An exploratory phase of research employs archival data from approximately 500 decisions made in the past three years to hire or promote applicants for positions in one public health administration organization. A logit regression model is employed to examine the probability that the variables modify the effect of applicant age on employment success. A confirmatory phase of the dissertation is a controlled experiment in which hiring decision makers from the same public organization perform a simulated hiring decision exercise to evaluate hypothetical applicants of similar qualifications but of different ages. The responses of the decision makers to a series of bipolar adjective scales add support to the cognitive component of the theoretical model of the hiring decision. A final section contains information gathered from interviews with key informants. ^ Applicant age has tended to have a curvilinear relationship with employment success. For some positions, the mean age of the applicants most likely to succeed varies with the values of the five groups of moderating variables. The research contributes not only to the practice of public personnel administration, but is useful in examining larger public policy issues associated with an aging workforce. ^

Predicting success or failure of tax -base revenue sharing attempts: A comparative analysis

To promote regional or mutual improvement, numerous interjurisdictional efforts to share tax bases have been attempted. Most of these efforts fail to be consummated. Motivations to share revenues include: narrowing fiscal disparities, enhancing regional cooperation and economic development, rationalizing land-use, and minimizing revenue losses caused by competition to attract and keep businesses. Various researchers have developed theories to aid understanding of why interjurisdictional cooperation efforts succeed or fail. Walter Rosenbaum and Gladys Kammerer studied two contemporaneous Florida local-government consolidation attempts. Boyd Messinger subsequently tested their Theory of Successful Consolidation on nine consolidation attempts. Paul Peterson's dual theories on Modern Federalism posit that all governmental levels attempt to further economic development and that politicians act in ways that either further their futures or cement job security. Actions related to the latter theory often interfere with the former. Samuel Nunn and Mark Rosentraub sought to learn how interjurisdictional cooperation evolves. Through multiple case studies they developed a model framing interjurisdictional cooperation in four dimensions. ^ This dissertation investigates the ability of the above theories to help predict success or failure of regional tax-base revenue sharing attempts. A research plan was formed that used five sequenced steps to gather data, analyze it, and conclude if hypotheses concerning the application of these theories were valid. The primary analytical tools were: multiple case studies, cross-case analysis, and pattern matching. Data was gathered from historical records, questionnaires, and interviews. ^ The results of this research indicate that Rosenbaum-Kammerer theory can be a predictor of success or failure in implementing tax-base revenue sharing if it is amended as suggested by Messinger and further modified by a recommendation in this dissertation. Peterson's Functional and Legislative theories considered together were able to predict revenue sharing proposal outcomes. Many of the indicators of interjurisdictional cooperation forwarded in the Nunn-Rosentraub model appeared in the cases studied, but the model was not a reliable forecasting instrument. ^

The economic well -being of low -income immigrants in the U.S.: An examination of the impact of the 1996 welfare reform on immigrants

The 1996 welfare reform, for the first time in U.S. history, set a five-year residence requirement for immigrants to be eligible for federal welfare benefits. This dissertation assessed the impact of the 1996 welfare reform, specifically the immigrant provisions, on the economic well-being of low-income immigrants. This dissertation also explored the roles that migration selection theory and social capital theory play in the economic well-being of low-income immigrants. ^ This dissertation was based on an analysis of the March 1995, March 2002, and March 2006 Annual Demographic Supplement Files of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Both logistic regression and multiple regression were used to analyze economic well-being, comparing low-income immigrants with low-income citizens. Economic well-being was measured in the current survey year and the year before on the following variables: employment status, full-time status (35 or more hours per week), the number of weeks worked, and the total annual wage or salary.^ The major findings reported in this dissertation were that low-income immigrants had advantages over low-income citizens in the labor market. This may be due to immigrants' stronger motivation to obtain success, consistent with migration selection theory. Also, this research suggested that immigrant provisions had not ameliorated employment outcomes of low-income immigrants as policymakers may have expected.^ The study also confirmed the role of social capital in advancing the economic well-being of qualified immigrants. Ultimately, this dissertation contributed to our understanding of low-income immigrants in the U.S. The study questioned the claim that immigrants are attracted to the U.S. by welfare benefits. This dissertation suggested that immigrants come to the U.S., to a large extent, to pursue the goal of upward mobility. Consequently, immigrants may employ greater initiative and work harder than native-born Americans.^

The effects of required/sequenced preparatory courses on academic success and retention at a community college

This dissertation had two purposes: first, to analyze how required sequenced college preparatory courses in mathematics, reading, and writing affect students' academic success and, second, to add to a theoretical model for predicting student retention at a community college. Grade point average, number of degree credits earned, and reenrollment rate were measured as determinants of academic success. The treatment group had a significantly higher grade point average than the control group. There was no significant difference in the number of degree credits earned or re-enrollment rate for the groups. A series of logistic regressions used the independent variables E-ASSET scores in math, reading, and writing; number of college prep areas required; credits earned; grade point average; students' status; academic restrictions/required course sequencing; sex; race; and socio-economic status to determine the predictor variables for retention. The academic variable that showed the greatest potential as a predictor for retention was grade point average. Overall, receiving financial aid was the greatest predictor for reenrollment. For a financial aid recipient the odds of reenrollment were 2.70 times more likely than if no financial aid was received.