Vegetation dynamics and their implications for the management of wetlands in the lowlands of Nepal

The maintenance of species richness is often a priority in the management of nature reserves, where consumptive use of resources is generally prohibited. The purpose of this research was to improve management by understanding the vegetation dynamics in the lowlands of Nepal. The objectives were to determine vegetation associations in relation to environments and human-induced disturbances that affect vegetation dynamics on floodplains, where upstream barrages had altered flooding patterns, and consumptive use of plant resources was influencing natural processes. Floodplain vegetation in relation to physical environments and disturbances were studied along transects, perpendicular to the course of the Mahakali River in the western Terai, Nepal. Forest structural changes were studied for three years in ten plots. A randomized split-block experiment with nine burning and grazing treatments was performed in seasonally flooded grasslands. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to assess people's socio-economic status, natural resource use patterns and conservation attitudes. ^ Elevation, soil organic matter, nitrogen, percentage of sand and grazing intensity were significant in delineating herbaceous vegetation assemblages, whereas elevation and livestock grazing were significant in defining forest type boundaries. On the floodplain islands, highly grazed Dalbergia sissoo-Acacia catechu forests were devoid of understory woody vegetation, but the lightly grazed D. sissoo-mixed forests had a well-developed second canopy layer, comprising woody species other than D. sissoo and A. catechu. In grasslands, species richness and biomass production were highest at intermediate disturbance level represented by the lightly grazed and ungrazed early-burned treatments. Ethnicity, education and resource use patterns were important in influencing conservation attitudes. A succession towards the mixed forests would occur in D. sissoo-dominated floodplain forests, where dams and barrages reduce flooding and associated fluvial processes, and if livestock grazing is stopped, as occasionally suggested by nature conservationists. In seasonally flooded grasslands, early burning with moderate grazing would enhance the species diversity and productivity. There is a need to implement a participatory integrated wetland management plan, to include community development, education and off farm income generation, to assure participatory conservation and management of wetlands in Nepal. ^

Resources use and conservation attitudes of local people in the Western Terai landscape, Nepal

Two protected areas: Royal Bardia National Park (RBNP) and Royal Suklaphanta Wildlife Reserve (RSWR) in the Western Terai, Nepal, are under threats due to present political turmoil, uncontrolled immigration, inefficient land reform policies and unsustainable resource use. I did a stratified random questionnaire survey of 234 households to determine how resource use patterns and problems influence conservation attitudes. Chi-square, Student's t, Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests, and multiple regression were used. There was spatio-temporal variability in resource use patterns and dependency. People were collecting eight and seven types of resources in RBNP and RSWR, respectively. However, people in RBNP were more dependent on resources than RSWR. In both areas, the problem of firewood is serious. The mean attitude score of RBNP (8.4 ± 1.44) was significantly higher than the score of RSWR (7.7 ± 1.66; t = 3.24, p = 0.0007). Conservation attitude was determined by variables such as participation in trainings, wildlife damage, and satisfaction towards user groups.

The influence of body size on the ecology of coastal fish predators in the Bahamas

Body size is a fundamental structural characteristic of organisms, determining critical life history and physiological traits, and influencing population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. For my dissertation, I focused on effects of body size on habitat use and diet of important coastal fish predators, as well as their influence on faunal communities in Bahamian wetlands. First, using acoustic telemetry and stable isotope analysis, I identified high variability in movement patterns and habitat use among individuals within a gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and schoolmaster snapper (L. apodus) population. This intrapopulation variation was not explained by body size, but by individual behavior in habitat use. Isotope values differed between individuals that moved further distances and individuals that stayed close to their home sites, suggesting movement differences were related to specific patterns of foraging behavior. Subsequently, while investigating diet of schoolmaster snapper over a two-year period using stomach content and stable isotope analyses, I also found intrapopulation diet variation, mostly explained by differences in size class, individual behavior and temporal variability. I then developed a hypothesis-testing framework examining intrapopulation niche variation between size classes using stable isotopes. This framework can serve as baseline to categorize taxonomic or functional groupings into specific niche shift scenarios, as well as to help elucidate underlying mechanisms causing niche shifts in certain size classes. Finally, I examined the effect of different-sized fish predators on epifaunal community structure in shallow seagrass beds using exclusion experiments at two spatial scales. Overall, I found that predator effects were rather weak, with predator size and spatial scale having no impact on the community. Yet, I also found some evidence of strong interactions on particular common snapper prey. As Bahamian wetlands are increasingly threatened by human activities (e.g., overexploitation, habitat degradation), an enhanced knowledge of the ecology of organisms inhabiting these systems is crucial for developing appropriate conservation and management strategies. My dissertation research contributed to this effort by providing critical information about the resource use of important Bahamian fish predators, as well as their effect on faunal seagrass communities.

Essays in economic growth, political economy and institutions

This dissertation analyzes the effects of political and economic institutions on economic development and growth.^ The first essay develops an overlapping-generations political economy model to analyze the incentives of various social groups to finance human capital accumulation through public education expenditures. The contribution of this study to the literature is that it helps explain the observed differences in the economic growth performance of natural resource-abundant countries. The results suggest that the preferred tax rates of the manufacturers on one hand and the political coalition of manufacturers and landowners, on the other hand, are equal to the socially optimal tax rate. However, we show that owners of natural resources prefer an excessively high tax rate, which suppresses aggregate output to a suboptimal level.^ The second essay examines the relationship between the political influence of different social classes and public education spending in panel data estimation. The novel contribution of this paper to the literature is that I proxy the political power and influence of the natural resource owners, manufacturers, and landowners with macroeconomic indicators. The motivation behind this modeling choice is to substantiate the definition of the political power of social classes with economic fundamentals. I use different governance indicators in the estimations to find out how different institutions mediate the overall impact of the political influence of various social classes on public education spending. The results suggest that political stability and absence of violence and rule of law are the important governance indicators.^ The third essay develops a counter argument to Acemoglu et al. (2010) where the thesis is that French institutions and economic reforms fostered economic progress in those German regions invaded by the Napoleonic armies. By providing historical data on urbanization rates used as proxies for economic growth, I demonstrate that similar different rates of economic growth were observed in the regions of France in the post-Napoleonic period as well. The existence of different economic growth rates makes it hard to argue that the differences in economic performance in the German regions that were invaded by the French and those that were spared a similar fate follow from regional differences in economic institutions.^

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.