Freeway travel time estimation and prediction using dynamic neural networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. ^ This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.^

Freeway Travel Time Estimation and Prediction Using Dynamic Neural Networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.

Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

Investigating the origin of PM2.5 in Baltimore using highly time-resolved organic molecular markers measured during the Baltimore PM-supersite

The detailed organic composition of atmospheric fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) is an integral part of the knowledge needed in order to fully characterize its sources and transformation in the environment. For the study presented here, samples were collected at 3-hour intervals. This high time resolution allows gaining unique insights on the influence of short- and long-range transport phenomena, and dynamic atmospheric processes. A specially designed sequential sampler was deployed at the 2002-2003 Baltimore PM-Supersite to collect PM2.5 samples at a 3-hourly resolution for extended periods of consecutive days, during both summer and winter seasons. Established solvent-extraction and GC-MS techniques were used to extract and analyze the organic compounds in 119 samples from each season. Over 100 individual compounds were quantified in each sample. For primary organics, averaging the diurnal ambient concentrations over the sampled periods revealed ambient patterns that relate to diurnal emission patterns of major source classes. Several short-term releases of pollutants from local sources were detected, and local meteorological data was used to pinpoint possible source regions. Biogenic secondary organic compounds were detected as well, and possible mechanisms of formation were evaluated. The relationships between the observed continuous variations of the concentrations of selected organic markers and both the on-site meteorological measurements conducted parallel to the PM2.5 sampling, and the synoptic patterns of weather and wind conditions were also examined. Several one-to-two days episodes were identified from the sequential variation of the concentration observed for specific marker compounds and markers ratios. The influence of the meteorological events on the concentrations of the organic compounds during selected episodes was discussed. It was observed that during the summer, under conditions of pervasive influence of air masses originated from the west/northwest, some organic species displayed characteristics consistent with the measured PM2.5 being strongly influenced by the aged nature of these long-traveling background parcels. During the winter, intrusions from more regional air masses originating from the south and the southwest were more important.

Knowledge creation in dynamic learning environments

Researchers have extensively discussed using knowledge management to achieve sustainable competitive advantages; however, the successful implementation of knowledge management programs in organizations remains challenging. Problems with knowledge management arise primarily from issues related to inter-subjective creation of meaning by diverse individuals in a dynamic learning environment. ^ The first part of this dissertation examined the concepts of shared interpretive resources referring to background assumptions, shared language, and symbolic resources upon which individuals draw in their interactions in the community. The discussion adopted an interpretive research approach to underscore how community members develop shared interpretive resources over time. The second part examined how learners' behaviors influence knowledge acquisition in the community, emphasizing the associations between learners' learning approaches and learning contexts. An empirical survey of learners provided significant evidence to demonstrate the influences of learners' learning approaches. The third part examined an instructor's strategy—namely, advance organizer—to enhance learners' knowledge assimilation process. Advance organizer is an instructor strategy that refers to a set of inclusive concepts that introduce and sum up new material, and refers to a method of bridging and linking old information with something new. In this part, I underscore the concepts of advance organizer, and the implementations of advance organizer in one learning environment. A study was conducted in one higher educational environment to show the implementation of advance organizer. Additionally, an advance organizer instrument was developed and tested, and results from learners' feedback were analyzed. The significant empirical evidence showed the association between learners' learning outcomes and the implementation of advance organizer strategy. ^

An improved framework for dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation

This dissertation aims to improve the performance of existing assignment-based dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation models to successfully apply Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) strategies for the purposes of traffic congestion relief and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) in transportation network modeling. The methodology framework has two advantages over the existing assignment-based dynamic O-D matrix estimation models. First, it combines an initial O-D estimation model into the estimation process to provide a high confidence level of initial input for the dynamic O-D estimation model, which has the potential to improve the final estimation results and reduce the associated computation time. Second, the proposed methodology framework can automatically convert traffic volume deviation to traffic density deviation in the objective function under congested traffic conditions. Traffic density is a better indicator for traffic demand than traffic volume under congested traffic condition, thus the conversion can contribute to improving the estimation performance. The proposed method indicates a better performance than a typical assignment-based estimation model (Zhou et al., 2003) in several case studies. In the case study for I-95 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, the proposed method produces a good result in seven iterations, with a root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) of 0.010 for traffic volume and a RMSPE of 0.283 for speed. In contrast, Zhou's model requires 50 iterations to obtain a RMSPE of 0.023 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.285 for speed. In the case study for Jacksonville, Florida, the proposed method reaches a convergent solution in 16 iterations with a RMSPE of 0.045 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.110 for speed, while Zhou's model needs 10 iterations to obtain the best solution, with a RMSPE of 0.168 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.179 for speed. The successful application of the proposed methodology framework to real road networks demonstrates its ability to provide results both with satisfactory accuracy and within a reasonable time, thus establishing its potential usefulness to support dynamic traffic assignment modeling, ITS systems, and other strategies.

Treefrogs in Forested Swamps at the La Selva Biological Station: Assemblage Variation through Space and Time

Swamp-breeding treefrogs form conspicuous components of many tropical forest sites, yet remain largely understudied. The La Selva Biological Station, a rainforest reserve in Costa Rica, harbors a rich swamp-breeding treefrog fauna that has been studied in only one of the many swamps found at the site. To understand if the species composition of treefrogs at La Selva varies over space or time, frogs were censused in 1982-83, 1994-95, 2005 and 2011 at two ponds located in the reserve. Data on treefrog habitat utilization were also collected. Species composition varied spatially only in 2011. Temporal variation was observed at both ponds for all groups tested. Habitat use varied among species and between swamps. The pattern of variation suggests that temporally dynamic systems such as temporary Neotropical forest swamps will converge and diverge in species composition over time.

Infants' selective attention to faces and prosody of speech: The roles of intersensory redundancy and exploratory time

One of the overarching questions in the field of infant perceptual and cognitive development concerns how selective attention is organized during early development to facilitate learning. The following study examined how infants' selective attention to properties of social events (i.e., prosody of speech and facial identity) changes in real time as a function of intersensory redundancy (redundant audiovisual, nonredundant unimodal visual) and exploratory time. Intersensory redundancy refers to the spatially coordinated and temporally synchronous occurrence of information across multiple senses. Real time macro- and micro-structural change in infants' scanning patterns of dynamic faces was also examined. ^ According to the Intersensory Redundancy Hypothesis, information presented redundantly and in temporal synchrony across two or more senses recruits infants' selective attention and facilitates perceptual learning of highly salient amodal properties (properties that can be perceived across several sensory modalities such as the prosody of speech) at the expense of less salient modality specific properties. Conversely, information presented to only one sense facilitates infants' learning of modality specific properties (properties that are specific to a particular sensory modality such as facial features) at the expense of amodal properties (Bahrick & Lickliter, 2000, 2002). ^ Infants' selective attention and discrimination of prosody of speech and facial configuration was assessed in a modified visual paired comparison paradigm. In redundant audiovisual stimulation, it was predicted infants would show discrimination of prosody of speech in the early phases of exploration and facial configuration in the later phases of exploration. Conversely, in nonredundant unimodal visual stimulation, it was predicted infants would show discrimination of facial identity in the early phases of exploration and prosody of speech in the later phases of exploration. Results provided support for the first prediction and indicated that following redundant audiovisual exposure, infants showed discrimination of prosody of speech earlier in processing time than discrimination of facial identity. Data from the nonredundant unimodal visual condition provided partial support for the second prediction and indicated that infants showed discrimination of facial identity, but not prosody of speech. The dissertation study contributes to the understanding of the nature of infants' selective attention and processing of social events across exploratory time.^

Power and thermal aware scheduling for real-time computing systems

Over the past few decades, we have been enjoying tremendous benefits thanks to the revolutionary advancement of computing systems, driven mainly by the remarkable semiconductor technology scaling and the increasingly complicated processor architecture. However, the exponentially increased transistor density has directly led to exponentially increased power consumption and dramatically elevated system temperature, which not only adversely impacts the system's cost, performance and reliability, but also increases the leakage and thus the overall power consumption. Today, the power and thermal issues have posed enormous challenges and threaten to slow down the continuous evolvement of computer technology. Effective power/thermal-aware design techniques are urgently demanded, at all design abstraction levels, from the circuit-level, the logic-level, to the architectural-level and the system-level. ^ In this dissertation, we present our research efforts to employ real-time scheduling techniques to solve the resource-constrained power/thermal-aware, design-optimization problems. In our research, we developed a set of simple yet accurate system-level models to capture the processor's thermal dynamic as well as the interdependency of leakage power consumption, temperature, and supply voltage. Based on these models, we investigated the fundamental principles in power/thermal-aware scheduling, and developed real-time scheduling techniques targeting at a variety of design objectives, including peak temperature minimization, overall energy reduction, and performance maximization. ^ The novelty of this work is that we integrate the cutting-edge research on power and thermal at the circuit and architectural-level into a set of accurate yet simplified system-level models, and are able to conduct system-level analysis and design based on these models. The theoretical study in this work serves as a solid foundation for the guidance of the power/thermal-aware scheduling algorithms development in practical computing systems.^

A large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization geographic information system based on parallel map tiling

With the exponential increasing demands and uses of GIS data visualization system, such as urban planning, environment and climate change monitoring, weather simulation, hydrographic gauge and so forth, the geospatial vector and raster data visualization research, application and technology has become prevalent. However, we observe that current web GIS techniques are merely suitable for static vector and raster data where no dynamic overlaying layers. While it is desirable to enable visual explorations of large-scale dynamic vector and raster geospatial data in a web environment, improving the performance between backend datasets and the vector and raster applications remains a challenging technical issue. This dissertation is to implement these challenging and unimplemented areas: how to provide a large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization service with dynamic overlaying layers accessible from various client devices through a standard web browser, and how to make the large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization service as rapid as the static one. To accomplish these, a large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization geographic information system based on parallel map tiling and a comprehensive performance improvement solution are proposed, designed and implemented. They include: the quadtree-based indexing and parallel map tiling, the Legend String, the vector data visualization with dynamic layers overlaying, the vector data time series visualization, the algorithm of vector data rendering, the algorithm of raster data re-projection, the algorithm for elimination of superfluous level of detail, the algorithm for vector data gridding and re-grouping and the cluster servers side vector and raster data caching.

Temporal Population Genetic Structure of Eastern Mosquitofish in a Dynamic Aquatic Landscape

We analyzed the effect of periodic drying in the Florida Everglades on spatiotemporal population genetic structure of eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). Severe periodic drying events force individuals from disparate sources to mix in dry season relatively deep-water refuges. In 1996 (a wet year) and 1999 (a dry year), we sampled mosquitofish at 20 dry-season refuges distributed in 3 water management regions and characterized genetic variation for 10 allozyme and 3 microsatellite loci. In 1996, most of the ecosystem did not dry, whereas in 1999, many of our sampling locations were isolated by expanses of dried marsh surface. In 1996, most spatial genetic variation was attributed to heterogeneity within regions. In 1999, spatial genetic variation within regions was not significant. In both years, a small but significant amount of variation (less than 1% of the total variation) was partitioned among regions. Variance was consistently greater than zero among long-hydroperiod sites within a region, but not among short-hydroperiod sites within a region, where hydroperiod was measured as time since last marsh surface dry-down forcing fishes into local refuges. In 1996, all sites were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. In 1999, we observed fewer heterozygotes than expected for most loci and sites suggesting a Wahlund effect arising from fish leaving areas that dried and mixing in deep-water refuges.

Aquatic fauna as indicators for Everglades restoration: Applying dynamic targets in assessments

A major goal of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to recover historical (pre-drainage) wading bird rookeries and reverse marked decreases in wading bird nesting success in Everglades National Park. To assess efforts to restore wading birds, a trophic hypothesis was developed that proposes seasonal concentrations of small-fish and crustaceans (i.e., wading bird prey) were a key factor to historical wading bird success. Drainage of the Everglades has diminished these seasonal concentrations, leading to a decline in wading bird nesting and displacing them from their historical nesting locations. The trophic hypothesis predicts that restoring historical hydrological patterns to pre-drainage conditions will recover the timing and location of seasonally concentrated prey, ultimately restoring wading bird nesting and foraging to the southern Everglades. We identified a set of indicators using small-fish and crustaceans that can be predicted from hydrological targets and used to assess management success in regaining suitable wading bird foraging habitat. Small-fish and crustaceans are key components of the Everglades food web and are sensitive to hydrological management, track hydrological history with little time lag, and can be studied at the landscape scale. The seasonal hydrological variation of the Everglades that creates prey concentrations presents a challenge to interpreting monitoring data. To account for the variable hydrology of the Everglades in our assessment, we developed dynamic hydrological targets that respond to changes in prevailing regional rainfall. We also derived statistical relationships between density and hydrological drivers for species representing four different life-history responses to drought. Finally, we use these statistical relationships and hydrological targets to set restoration targets for prey density. We also describe a report-card methodology to communicate the results of model-based assessments for communication to a broad audience.

Leakage temperature dependency aware real-time scheduling for power and thermal optimization

Catering to society's demand for high performance computing, billions of transistors are now integrated on IC chips to deliver unprecedented performances. With increasing transistor density, the power consumption/density is growing exponentially. The increasing power consumption directly translates to the high chip temperature, which not only raises the packaging/cooling costs, but also degrades the performance/reliability and life span of the computing systems. Moreover, high chip temperature also greatly increases the leakage power consumption, which is becoming more and more significant with the continuous scaling of the transistor size. As the semiconductor industry continues to evolve, power and thermal challenges have become the most critical challenges in the design of new generations of computing systems. ^ In this dissertation, we addressed the power/thermal issues from the system-level perspective. Specifically, we sought to employ real-time scheduling methods to optimize the power/thermal efficiency of the real-time computing systems, with leakage/ temperature dependency taken into consideration. In our research, we first explored the fundamental principles on how to employ dynamic voltage scaling (DVS) techniques to reduce the peak operating temperature when running a real-time application on a single core platform. We further proposed a novel real-time scheduling method, “M-Oscillations” to reduce the peak temperature when scheduling a hard real-time periodic task set. We also developed three checking methods to guarantee the feasibility of a periodic real-time schedule under peak temperature constraint. We further extended our research from single core platform to multi-core platform. We investigated the energy estimation problem on the multi-core platforms and developed a light weight and accurate method to calculate the energy consumption for a given voltage schedule on a multi-core platform. Finally, we concluded the dissertation with elaborated discussions of future extensions of our research. ^

Dynamic image precompensation for improving visual performance of computer users with ocular aberrations

With the progress of computer technology, computers are expected to be more intelligent in the interaction with humans, presenting information according to the user's psychological and physiological characteristics. However, computer users with visual problems may encounter difficulties on the perception of icons, menus, and other graphical information displayed on the screen, limiting the efficiency of their interaction with computers. In this dissertation, a personalized and dynamic image precompensation method was developed to improve the visual performance of the computer users with ocular aberrations. The precompensation was applied on the graphical targets before presenting them on the screen, aiming to counteract the visual blurring caused by the ocular aberration of the user's eye. A complete and systematic modeling approach to describe the retinal image formation of the computer user was presented, taking advantage of modeling tools, such as Zernike polynomials, wavefront aberration, Point Spread Function and Modulation Transfer Function. The ocular aberration of the computer user was originally measured by a wavefront aberrometer, as a reference for the precompensation model. The dynamic precompensation was generated based on the resized aberration, with the real-time pupil diameter monitored. The potential visual benefit of the dynamic precompensation method was explored through software simulation, with the aberration data from a real human subject. An "artificial eye'' experiment was conducted by simulating the human eye with a high-definition camera, providing objective evaluation to the image quality after precompensation. In addition, an empirical evaluation with 20 human participants was also designed and implemented, involving image recognition tests performed under a more realistic viewing environment of computer use. The statistical analysis results of the empirical experiment confirmed the effectiveness of the dynamic precompensation method, by showing significant improvement on the recognition accuracy. The merit and necessity of the dynamic precompensation were also substantiated by comparing it with the static precompensation. The visual benefit of the dynamic precompensation was further confirmed by the subjective assessments collected from the evaluation participants.