A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

Crayfish assemblage shifts in a large drought-prone wetland: the roles of hydrology and competition

1. Faster growing, larger and/or more aggressive crayfish species are predicted to dominate permanent waterbodies. We tested this prediction using a 9 year dataset for two species of crayfish (Procambarus alleni and Procambarus fallax) co-existing in a sub-tropical flowing slough in southern Florida. Using a series of laboratory and mesocosm experiments we also compared life history traits and performance of the respective species to test mechanisms that could explain dominance shifts in the local crayfish assemblages. 2. Over the 9-year period, P. alleni densities were the greatest in shallower, shorterhydroperiod areas bordering the slough, while P. fallax densities were higher in deeper, longer-hydroperiod central areas. These areas were separated by 0.8–2 km of continuous wetland with no apparent barriers to movement between them. 3. Density of P. fallax was not strongly affected by any measures of hydrological variation, while P. alleni density increased with more severe drought conditions. Following the strongest droughts, P. alleni colonized areas in the centre of the slough where they had been absent or scarce in wetter years. 4. We conducted experiments to compare growth rates, drought tolerance, and competitive dominance of these species. P. alleni survived drought conditions better, had higher growth rates, and was the dominant competitor for space and food. While drought probably limits P. fallax in the drier slough habitats, neither drought sensitivity nor interspecific competition with P. fallax can explain decreases of P. alleni with wetter conditions. 5. Our results indicate that a competition-colonization tradeoff cannot explain the crayfish compositional dynamics in this wetland because P. alleni is both the best competitor and the best at surviving in and colonizing areas with the strongest droughts. Future attention should focus on the potential for selective effects of predators that co-vary with hydrology. 6. The traits (large size, fast growth, competitive dominance) exhibited by P. alleni, which is absent in long-hydroperiod wetlands, are those exhibited by dominant crayfish in permanent lakes and streams containing fish. Although these traits make crayfish less vulnerable to fish in some lakes and streams, life-history models of community structure across permanence gradients suggest the opposite traits should be favoured for co-existence with fish.

Effects of Simulated Drought on the Carbon Balance of Everglades Short-Hydroperiod Marsh

Hydrology drives the carbon balance of wetlands by controlling the uptake and release of CO2 and CH4. Longer dry periods in between heavier precipitation events predicted for the Everglades region, may alter the stability of large carbon pools in this wetland's ecosystems. To determine the effects of drought on CO2 fluxes and CH4 emissions, we simulated changes in hydroperiod with three scenarios that differed in the onset rate of drought (gradual, intermediate, and rapid transition into drought) on 18 freshwater wetland monoliths collected from an Everglades short-hydroperiod marsh. Simulated drought, regardless of the onset rate, resulted in higher net CO2 losses net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the 22-week manipulation. Drought caused extensive vegetation dieback, increased ecosystem respiration (Reco), and reduced carbon uptake gross ecosystem exchange (GEE). Photosynthetic potential measured by reflective indices (photochemical reflectance index, water index, normalized phaeophytinization index, and the normalized difference vegetation index) indicated that water stress limited GEE and inhibited Reco. As a result of drought-induced dieback, NEE did not offset methane production during periods of inundation. The average ratio of net CH4 to NEE over the study period was 0.06, surpassing the 100-year greenhouse warming compensation point for CH4 (0.04). Drought-induced diebacks of sawgrass (C3) led to the establishment of the invasive species torpedograss (C4) when water was resupplied. These changes in the structure and function indicate that freshwater marsh ecosystems can become a net source of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, even following an extended drought. Future changes in precipitation patterns and drought occurrence/duration can change the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes from sinks to sources of carbon to the atmosphere. Therefore, climate change will impact the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes by influencing water availability and the potential for positive feedbacks on radiative forcing.

Managua Relief

Bob del Toro, Dianne Haley and Others with Toys for Managuan Relief. On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum 887-3400. april 30, 1973. Cutlines: More than 350 dozens of various balls, skate boards and games were recently purchased by the Student Governance Committee of Florida International University for the young people of Managua, Nicaragua who not only do not have enough toys but are unable to attend schools which are closed. Left to right are, Bob del Toro, Dianne Haley, Chairman of the Student Governance Committee, Hialeah Councilman Jack Weaver of the Hialeah-Managua Sister City Committee, Barbara O'Nan and Margaret Klein.

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum From: City of Hialeah Publicity Bureu. 401 1/2 East 1st Ave. Hialeah, Fla. 887-3400. april 30, 1973. Cutlines: Florida International University students recently raised more than $ 1,000 for more than 300 dozens toys and balls for the youngsters of Managua, Nicaragua. With the balls above are shown student Committee members and oficials of the Hialeah-Managua Sister City Committee, left to rigth: Bob del Toro, Sister City Committe president Raymond R. Schultz, Student Governance Committee chairman Dianne Haley and Hialeah City councilman Jack Weaver.

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements by organizations were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum From: City of Hialeah Publicity Bureu. 401 1/2 East 1st Ave. Hialeah, Fla. 887-3400. april 30, 1973. Cutlines: Skate boards, paddle balls and flying saucers were among the big shipment of toys which was recently dispatched to Managua, Nicaragua by students of Florida International University through the Hialeah-Managua Sister Committee. Examining the toys above are, left to right: Margaret Klein, Hialeah councilman Jack Weaver and Barbara O'Nan.

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum

Managua Relief

On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum

Managua Relief

The Miami News. Mon., March 19, 1973. Managuan Relief. Miami News Staff Photo by George Kochaniec. Raymond and Connie Schultz with toys. (Back) "Focuses on kids" article On December 23, 12:29 a.m. local time in Managua, Nicaragua, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred. The earth caused widespread damage among Managua, the capital city. In Managua, 5,000 residents were killed, 20,000 were injured and over 250,000 were left homeless. In Miami, residents and relief organizations focused on helping children. Wife of General Arturo Somoza pleaded on efforts on gathering sporting goods and toys for Managua’s young people. Relief committees purchased 230 dozen balls – basketball, rubber, and volley, soccer, and others. Nearly $500 came from students in Hialeah High School. Jump ropes and jacks were donated from a sorority at Florida International University. Arrangements were made to bring 44,000 pounds of baby formula and canned meat and 13,000 pounds of medicine. Many of Miami’s corporations, associations, and residents contributed to the Managuan Relief effort. Source: The Miami News, March 19, 1973 by Lynn Feigenbaum