A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

Defense against node compromise in sensor network security

Recent advances in electronic and computer technologies lead to wide-spread deployment of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). WSNs have wide range applications, including military sensing and tracking, environment monitoring, smart environments, etc. Many WSNs have mission-critical tasks, such as military applications. Thus, the security issues in WSNs are kept in the foreground among research areas. Compared with other wireless networks, such as ad hoc, and cellular networks, security in WSNs is more complicated due to the constrained capabilities of sensor nodes and the properties of the deployment, such as large scale, hostile environment, etc. Security issues mainly come from attacks. In general, the attacks in WSNs can be classified as external attacks and internal attacks. In an external attack, the attacking node is not an authorized participant of the sensor network. Cryptography and other security methods can prevent some of external attacks. However, node compromise, the major and unique problem that leads to internal attacks, will eliminate all the efforts to prevent attacks. Knowing the probability of node compromise will help systems to detect and defend against it. Although there are some approaches that can be used to detect and defend against node compromise, few of them have the ability to estimate the probability of node compromise. Hence, we develop basic uniform, basic gradient, intelligent uniform and intelligent gradient models for node compromise distribution in order to adapt to different application environments by using probability theory. These models allow systems to estimate the probability of node compromise. Applying these models in system security designs can improve system security and decrease the overheads nearly in every security area. Moreover, based on these models, we design a novel secure routing algorithm to defend against the routing security issue that comes from the nodes that have already been compromised but have not been detected by the node compromise detecting mechanism. The routing paths in our algorithm detour those nodes which have already been detected as compromised nodes or have larger probabilities of being compromised. Simulation results show that our algorithm is effective to protect routing paths from node compromise whether detected or not.

A static traffic assignment model combined with an artificial neural network delay model

As traffic congestion continues to worsen in large urban areas, solutions are urgently sought. However, transportation planning models, which estimate traffic volumes on transportation network links, are often unable to realistically consider travel time delays at intersections. Introducing signal controls in models often result in significant and unstable changes in network attributes, which, in turn, leads to instability of models. Ignoring the effect of delays at intersections makes the model output inaccurate and unable to predict travel time. To represent traffic conditions in a network more accurately, planning models should be capable of arriving at a network solution based on travel costs that are consistent with the intersection delays due to signal controls. This research attempts to achieve this goal by optimizing signal controls and estimating intersection delays accordingly, which are then used in traffic assignment. Simultaneous optimization of traffic routing and signal controls has not been accomplished in real-world applications of traffic assignment. To this end, a delay model dealing with five major types of intersections has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs). An ANN architecture consists of interconnecting artificial neurons. The architecture may either be used to gain an understanding of biological neural networks, or for solving artificial intelligence problems without necessarily creating a model of a real biological system. The ANN delay model has been trained using extensive simulations based on TRANSYT-7F signal optimizations. The delay estimates by the ANN delay model have percentage root-mean-squared errors (%RMSE) that are less than 25.6%, which is satisfactory for planning purposes. Larger prediction errors are typically associated with severely oversaturated conditions. A combined system has also been developed that includes the artificial neural network (ANN) delay estimating model and a user-equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment model. The combined system employs the Frank-Wolfe method to achieve a convergent solution. Because the ANN delay model provides no derivatives of the delay function, a Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) method is applied to assist in and expedite the iterative process of the Frank-Wolfe method. The performance of the combined system confirms that the convergence of the solution is achieved, although the global optimum may not be guaranteed.

Identification, distribution, and probability of infection in sympatric gastropods by digenean parasites at Pa-hay-okee, Everglades National Park using molecules and morphology

In this study, I determined the identity, taxonomic placement, and distribution of digenetic trematodes parasitizing the snails Pomacea paludosa and Planorbella duryi at Pa-hay-okee, Everglades National Park. I also characterized temporal and geographic variation in the probability of parasite infection for these snails based on two years of sampling. Although studies indicate that digenean parasites may have important effects both on individual species and the structure of communities, there have been no studies of digenean parasitism on snails within the Everglades ecosystem. For example, the endangered Everglade Snail Kite, a specialist that feeds almost exclusively on Pomacea paludosa, and is known to be a definitive host of digenean parasites, may suffer direct and indirect effects from consumption of parasitized apple snails. Therefore, information on the diversity and abundance of parasites harbored in snail populations in the Everglades should be of considerable interest for management and conservation of wildlife. Juvenile digeneans (cercariae) representing 20 species were isolated from these two snails, representing a quadrupling of the number of species known. Species were characterized based on morphological, morphometric, and sequence data (18S rDNA, COI, and ITS). Species richness of shed cercariae from P. duryi was greater than P. paludosa, with 13 and 7 species respectively. These species represented 14 families. P. paludosa and P. duryi had no digenean species in common. Probability of digenean infection was higher for P. duryi than P. paludosa and adults showed a greater risk of infection than juveniles for both of these snails. Planorbella duryi showed variation in probability of infection between sampling sites and hydrological seasons. The number of unique combinations of multi-species infections was greatest among P. duryi individuals, while the overall percentage of multi-species infections was greatest in P. paludosa. Analyses of six frequently-observed multiple infections from P. duryi suggest the presence of negative interactions, positive interactions, and neutral associations between larval digeneans. These results should contribute to an understanding of the factors controlling the abundance and distribution of key species in the Everglades ecosystem and may in particular help in the management and recovery planning for the Everglade Snail Kite.

Development of local homeland security networks in the state of Florida: A social network analysis approach

How do local homeland security organizations respond to catastrophic events such as hurricanes and acts of terrorism? Among the most important aspects of this response are these organizations ability to adapt to the uncertain nature of these "focusing events" (Birkland 1997). They are often behind the curve, seeing response as a linear process, when in fact it is a complex, multifaceted process that requires understanding the interactions between the fiscal pressures facing local governments, the institutional pressures of working within a new regulatory framework and the political pressures of bringing together different levels of government with different perspectives and agendas. ^ This dissertation has focused on tracing the factors affecting the individuals and institutions planning, preparing, responding and recovering from natural and man-made disasters. Using social network analysis, my study analyzes the interactions between the individuals and institutions that respond to these "focusing events." In practice, it is the combination of budgetary, institutional, and political pressures or constraints interacting with each other which resembles a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). ^ To investigate this system, my study evaluates the evolution of two separate sets of organizations composed of first responders (Fire Chiefs, Emergency Management Coordinators) and community volunteers organized in the state of Florida over the last fifteen years. Using a social network analysis approach, my dissertation analyzes the interactions between Citizen Corps Councils (CCCs) and Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) in the state of Florida from 1996–2011. It is the pattern of interconnections that occur over time that are the focus of this study. ^ The social network analysis revealed an increase in the amount and density of connections between these organizations over the last fifteen years. The analysis also exposed the underlying patterns in these connections; that as the networks became more complex they also became more decentralized though not in any uniform manner. The present study brings to light a story of how communities have adapted to the ever changing circumstances that are sine qua non of natural and man-made disasters.^

Web Based Bicycle Trip Planning for Broward County, Florida

To promote the use of bicycle transportation mode in times of increasing urban traffic congestion, Broward County Metropolitan Planning Organization funded the development of a Web-based trip planner for cyclists. This presentation demonstrates the integration of the ArcGIS Server 9.3 environment with the ArcGIS JavaScript Extension for Google Maps API and the Google Local Search Control for Maps API. This allows the use of Google mashup GIS functionality, i.e., Google local search for selection of trip start, trip destination, and intermediate waypoints, and the integration of Google Maps base layers. The ArcGIS Network Analyst extension is used for the route search, where algorithms for fastest, safest, simplest, most scenic, and shortest routes are imbedded. This presentation also describes how attributes of the underlying network sources have been combined to facilitate the search for optimized routes.

Monetary cost -efficient query distribution in ISDN -connected heterogeneous databases

Current technology permits connecting local networks via high-bandwidth telephone lines. Central coordinator nodes may use Intelligent Networks to manage data flow over dialed data lines, e.g. ISDN, and to establish connections between LANs. This dissertation focuses on cost minimization and on establishing operational policies for query distribution over heterogeneous, geographically distributed databases. Based on our study of query distribution strategies, public network tariff policies, and database interface standards we propose methods for communication cost estimation, strategies for the reduction of bandwidth allocation, and guidelines for central to node communication protocols. Our conclusion is that dialed data lines offer a cost effective alternative for the implementation of distributed database query systems, and that existing commercial software may be adapted to support query processing in heterogeneous distributed database systems. ^

Microspheres for liver radiomicrospheres therapy and planning

Liver cancer accounts for nearly 10% of all cancers in the US. Intrahepatic Arterial Radiomicrosphere Therapy (RMT), also known as Selective Internal Radiation Treatment (SIRT), is one of the evolving treatment modalities. Successful patient clinical outcomes require suitable treatment planning followed by delivery of the microspheres for therapy. The production and in vitro evaluation of various polymers (PGCD, CHS and CHSg) microspheres for a RMT and RMT planning are described. Microparticles with a 30±10 µm size distribution were prepared by emulsion method. The in vitro half-life of the particles was determined in PBS buffer and porcine plasma and their potential application (treatment or treatment planning) established. Further, the fast degrading microspheres (≤ 48 hours in vitro half-life) were labeled with 68Ga and/or 99mTc as they are suitable for the imaging component of treatment planning, which is the primary emphasis of this dissertation. Labeling kinetics demonstrated that 68Ga-PGCD, 68Ga-CHSg and 68Ga-NOTA-CHSg can be labeled with more than 95% yield in 15 minutes; 99mTc-PGCD and 99mTc-CHSg can also be labeled with high yield within 15-30 minutes. In vitro stability after four hours was more than 90% in saline and PBS buffer for all of them. Experiments in reconstituted hemoglobin lysate were also performed. Two successful imaging (RMT planning) agents were found: 99mTc-CHSg and 68Ga-NOTA-CHSg. For the 99mTc-PGCD a successful perfusion image was obtained after 10 minutes, however the in vivo degradation was very fast (half-life), releasing the 99mTc from the lungs. Slow degrading CHS microparticles (> 21 days half-life) were modified with p-SCN-b-DOTA and labeled with 90 Y for production of 90Y-DOTA-CHS. Radiochemical purity was evaluated in vitro and in vivo showing more than 90% stability after 72 and 24 hours respectively. All agents were compared to their respective gold standards (99mTc-MAA for 68Ga-NOTA-CHSg and 99m Tc-CHSg; 90Y-SirTEX for 90Y-DOTA-CHS) showing superior in vivo stability. RMT and RMT planning agents (Therapy, PET and SPECT imaging) were designed and successfully evaluated in vitro and in vivo.

A Modified Resource Distribution Fairness Measure

An important issue of resource distribution is the fairness of the distribution. For example, computer network management wishes to distribute network resource fairly to its users. To describe the fairness of the resource distribution, a quantitative fairness score function was proposed in 1984 by Jain et al. The purpose of this paper is to propose a modified network sharing fairness function so that the users can be treated differently according to their priority levels. The mathematical properties are discussed. The proposed fairness score function keeps all the nice properties of and provides better performance when the network users have different priority levels.

Analysis of fractured terrain using remote sensing and geographic information systems : establishing a correlation between fracture network properties and vegetation

This research analyzed the spatial relationship between a mega-scale fracture network and the occurrence of vegetation in an arid region. High-resolution aerial photographs of Arches National Park, Utah were used for digital image processing. Four sets of large-scale joints were digitized from the rectified color photograph in order to characterize the geospatial properties of the fracture network with the aid of a Geographic Information System. An unsupervised landcover classification was carried out to identify the spatial distribution of vegetation on the fractured outcrop. Results of this study confirm that the WNW-ESE alignment of vegetation is dominantly controlled by the spatial distribution of the systematic joint set, which in turn parallels the regional fold axis. This research provides insight into the spatial heterogeneity inherent to fracture networks, as well as the effects of jointing on the distribution of surface vegetation in desert environments.

A Static Traffic Assignment Model Combined with an Artificial Neural Network Delay Model

As traffic congestion continues to worsen in large urban areas, solutions are urgently sought. However, transportation planning models, which estimate traffic volumes on transportation network links, are often unable to realistically consider travel time delays at intersections. Introducing signal controls in models often result in significant and unstable changes in network attributes, which, in turn, leads to instability of models. Ignoring the effect of delays at intersections makes the model output inaccurate and unable to predict travel time. To represent traffic conditions in a network more accurately, planning models should be capable of arriving at a network solution based on travel costs that are consistent with the intersection delays due to signal controls. This research attempts to achieve this goal by optimizing signal controls and estimating intersection delays accordingly, which are then used in traffic assignment. Simultaneous optimization of traffic routing and signal controls has not been accomplished in real-world applications of traffic assignment. To this end, a delay model dealing with five major types of intersections has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs). An ANN architecture consists of interconnecting artificial neurons. The architecture may either be used to gain an understanding of biological neural networks, or for solving artificial intelligence problems without necessarily creating a model of a real biological system. The ANN delay model has been trained using extensive simulations based on TRANSYT-7F signal optimizations. The delay estimates by the ANN delay model have percentage root-mean-squared errors (%RMSE) that are less than 25.6%, which is satisfactory for planning purposes. Larger prediction errors are typically associated with severely oversaturated conditions. A combined system has also been developed that includes the artificial neural network (ANN) delay estimating model and a user-equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment model. The combined system employs the Frank-Wolfe method to achieve a convergent solution. Because the ANN delay model provides no derivatives of the delay function, a Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) method is applied to assist in and expedite the iterative process of the Frank-Wolfe method. The performance of the combined system confirms that the convergence of the solution is achieved, although the global optimum may not be guaranteed.

Web Based Bicycle Trip Planning for Broward County, Florida

To promote the use of bicycle transportation mode in times of increasing urban traffic congestion, Broward County Metropolitan Planning Organization funded the development of a Web-based trip planner for cyclists. This presentation demonstrates the integration of the ArcGIS Server 9.3 environment with the ArcGIS JavaScript Extension for Google Maps API and the Google Local Search Control for Maps API. This allows the use of Google mashup GIS functionality, i.e., Google local search for selection of trip start, trip destination, and intermediate waypoints, and the integration of Google Maps base layers. The ArcGIS Network Analyst extension is used for the route search, where algorithms for fastest, safest, simplest, most scenic, and shortest routes are imbedded. This presentation also describes how attributes of the underlying network sources have been combined to facilitate the search for optimized routes.

Defense Against Node Compromise in Sensor Network Security

Recent advances in electronic and computer technologies lead to wide-spread deployment of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). WSNs have wide range applications, including military sensing and tracking, environment monitoring, smart environments, etc. Many WSNs have mission-critical tasks, such as military applications. Thus, the security issues in WSNs are kept in the foreground among research areas. Compared with other wireless networks, such as ad hoc, and cellular networks, security in WSNs is more complicated due to the constrained capabilities of sensor nodes and the properties of the deployment, such as large scale, hostile environment, etc. Security issues mainly come from attacks. In general, the attacks in WSNs can be classified as external attacks and internal attacks. In an external attack, the attacking node is not an authorized participant of the sensor network. Cryptography and other security methods can prevent some of external attacks. However, node compromise, the major and unique problem that leads to internal attacks, will eliminate all the efforts to prevent attacks. Knowing the probability of node compromise will help systems to detect and defend against it. Although there are some approaches that can be used to detect and defend against node compromise, few of them have the ability to estimate the probability of node compromise. Hence, we develop basic uniform, basic gradient, intelligent uniform and intelligent gradient models for node compromise distribution in order to adapt to different application environments by using probability theory. These models allow systems to estimate the probability of node compromise. Applying these models in system security designs can improve system security and decrease the overheads nearly in every security area. Moreover, based on these models, we design a novel secure routing algorithm to defend against the routing security issue that comes from the nodes that have already been compromised but have not been detected by the node compromise detecting mechanism. The routing paths in our algorithm detour those nodes which have already been detected as compromised nodes or have larger probabilities of being compromised. Simulation results show that our algorithm is effective to protect routing paths from node compromise whether detected or not.

A dosimetry and radiobiological model for intravascular brachytherapy treatment planning with radioisotope emitting stents

The aim of this study was to develop a practical, versatile and fast dosimetry and radiobiological model for calculation of the 3D dose distribution and radiobiological effectiveness of radioactive stents. The algorithm was written in Matlab 6.5 programming language and is based on the dose point kernel convolution. The dosimetry and radiobiological model was applied for evaluation of the 3D dose distribution of 32P, 90Y, 188Re and 177Lu stents. Of the four, 32P delivers the highest dose, while 90Y, 188Re and 177Lu require high levels of activity to deliver a significant therapeutic dose in the range of 15-30 Gy. Results of the radiobiological model demonstrated that the same physical dose delivered by different radioisotopes produces significantly different radiobiological effects. This type of theoretical dose calculation can be useful in the development of new stent designs, the planning of animal studies and clinical trials, and clinical decisions involving individualized treatment plans.