Essays on international lending and increasing returns to scale

Standard economic theory suggests that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries. However, capital has predominantly flowed to rich countries. The three essays in this dissertation attempt to explain this phenomenon. The first two essays suggest theoretical explanations for why capital has not flowed to the poor countries. The third essay empirically tests the theoretical explanations.^ The first essay examines the effects of increasing returns to scale on international lending and borrowing with moral hazard. Introducing increasing returns in a two-country general equilibrium model yields possible multiple equilibria and helps explain the possibility of capital flows from a poor to a rich country. I find that a borrowing country may need to borrow sufficient amounts internationally to reach a minimum investment threshold in order to invest domestically.^ The second essay examines how a poor country may invest in sectors with low productivity because of sovereign risk, and how collateral differences across sectors may exacerbate the problem. I model sovereign borrowing with a two-sector economy: one sector with increasing returns to scale (IRS) and one sector with diminishing returns to scale (DRS). Countries with incomes below a threshold will only invest in the DRS sector, and countries with incomes above a threshold will invest mostly in the IRS sector. The results help explain the existence of a bimodal world income distribution.^ The third essay empirically tests the explanations for why capital has not flowed from the rich to the poor countries, with a focus on institutions and initial capital. I find that institutional variables are a very important factor, but in contrast to other studies, I show that institutions do not account for the Lucas Paradox. Evidence of increasing returns still exists, even when controlling for institutions and other variables. In addition, I find that the determinants of capital flows may depend on whether a country is rich or poor.^

Essays on the political economy of trade policy and economic *development

This dissertation studies the political economy of trade policy in a developing country, namely Turkey, under different economic and political regimes. The research analyzes the effects of these different regimes on the import structure, the trade policy and the industrialization process in Turkey and derives implications for aggregate welfare. ^ In the second chapter, the effects of trade liberalization policies on import demand are examined. Using disaggregated industry-level data, import demand elasticities for various sectors have been computed, analyzed under different economic regimes, and compared with those of developed countries. The results are statistically significant and reliable, and conform to the predictions of economic theory. Estimation of these elasticities is also a necessary ingredient for the third chapter of the dissertation. ^ The third chapter examines the predictions of the state-of-the-art “Protection For Sale” model of Grossman and Helpman (1994). Employing advanced econometric methods and a unique data set, strong support is found for the fundamental predictions of the model in the context of Turkey. Specifically, the government is found to attach a much higher weight to social welfare than to political contributions. This weight is higher under the democratic regime than under the dictatorship, a result potentially of interest to all researchers in the area of political economy. ^ The fourth chapter looks at the effects of industry concentration and import price shocks on protection, promotion and the choice of policy instruments in Turkey. In this context, it examines and finds support for the predictions of some well-known models in the literature. ^

Three essays on the economics of defense contracting, output and income inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. ^ The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. ^ The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. ^ Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.^

Empirical study of exchange rates in Brazil, Canada and the Caribbean

This dissertation examines the monetary models of exchange rate determination for Brazil, Canada, and two countries in the Caribbean, namely, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. With the exception of Canada, the others adopted the floating regime during the past ten years.^ The empirical validity of four seminal models in exchange rate economics were determined. Three of these models were entirely classical (Bilson and Frenkel) or Keynesian (Dornbusch) in nature. The fourth model (Real Interest Differential Model) was a mixture of the two schools of economic theory.^ There is no clear empirical evidence of the validity of the monetary models. However, the signs of the coefficients of the nominal interest differential variable were as predicted by the Keynesian hypothesis in the case of Canada and as predicted by the Chicago theorists in the remaining countries. Moreover, in case of Brazil, due to hyperinflation, the exchange rate is heavily influenced by domestic money supply.^ I also tested the purchasing power parity (PPP) for this same set of countries. For both the monetary as well as the PPP hypothesis, I tested for co-integration and applied ordinary least squares estimation procedure. The error correction model was also used for the PPP model, to determine convergence to equilibrium.^ The validity of PPP is also questionable for my set of countries. Endogeinity among the regressors as well as the lack of proper price indices are the contributing factors. More importantly, Central Bank intervention negate rapid adjustment of price and exchange rates to their equilibrium value. However, its forecasting capability for the period 1993-1994 is superior compared to the monetary models in two of the four cases.^ I conclude that in spite of the questionable validity of these models, the monetary models give better results in the case of the "smaller" economies like the Dominican Republic and Jamaica where monetary influences swamp the other determinants of exchange rate. ^

The role of market knowledge in recognizing and exploiting entrepreneurial opportunities in technology intensive firms

Entrepreneurial opportunity recognition is an increasingly prevalent phenomenon. Of particular interest is the ability of promising technology based ventures to recognize and exploit opportunities. Recent research drawing on the Austrian economic theory emphasizes the importance of knowledge, particularly market knowledge, behind opportunity recognition. While insightful, this research has tended to overlook those interrelationships that exist between different types of knowledge (technology and market knowledge) as well as between a firm’s knowledge base and its entrepreneurial orientation. Additional shortfalls of prior research include the ambiguous definitions provided for entrepreneurial opportunities, oversight of opportunity exploitation with an extensive focus on opportunity recognition only, and the lack of quantitative, empirical evidence on entrepreneurial opportunity recognition. ^ In this dissertation, these research gaps are addressed by integrating Schumpeterian opportunity development view with a Kirznerian opportunity discovery theory as well as insights from literature on entrepreneurial orientation. A sample of 85 new biotechnology ventures from the United States, Finland, and Sweden was analyzed. While leaders in all 85 companies were interviewed for the research in 2003-2004, 42 firms provided data in 2007. Data was analyzed using regression analysis. ^ The results show the value and importance of early market knowledge and technology knowledge as well as an entrepreneurial company posture for subsequent opportunity recognition. The highest numbers of new opportunities are recognized in firms where high levels of market knowledge are combined with high levels of technology knowledge (measured with a number of patents). A firm’s entrepreneurial orientation also enhances its opportunity recognition. Furthermore, the results show that new ventures with more market knowledge are able to gather more equity investments, license out more technologies, and achieve higher sales than new ventures with lower levels of market knowledge. Overall, the findings of this dissertation help further our understanding of the sources of entrepreneurial opportunities, and should encourage further research in this area. ^

Pricing in the Hospitality Industry: An Implicit Markets Approach

The authors apply economic theory to an analysis of industry pricing. Data from a cross-section of San Francisco hotels is used to estimate the implicit prices of common hotel amenities, and a procedure for using these prices to estimate consumer demands for the attributes is outlined. The authors then suggest implications for hotel decision makers. While the results presented here should not be generalized to other markets, the methodology is easily adapted to other geographic areas.

The role of market knowledge in recognizing and exploiting entrepreneurial opportunities in technology intensive firms

Entrepreneurial opportunity recognition is an increasingly prevalent phenomenon. Of particular interest is the ability of promising technology based ventures to recognize and exploit opportunities. Recent research drawing on the Austrian economic theory emphasizes the importance of knowledge, particularly market knowledge, behind opportunity recognition. While insightful, this research has tended to overlook those interrelationships that exist between different types of knowledge (technology and market knowledge) as well as between a firm’s knowledge base and its entrepreneurial orientation. Additional shortfalls of prior research include the ambiguous definitions provided for entrepreneurial opportunities, oversight of opportunity exploitation with an extensive focus on opportunity recognition only, and the lack of quantitative, empirical evidence on entrepreneurial opportunity recognition. In this dissertation, these research gaps are addressed by integrating Schumpeterian opportunity development view with a Kirznerian opportunity discovery theory as well as insights from literature on entrepreneurial orientation. A sample of 85 new biotechnology ventures from the United States, Finland, and Sweden was analyzed. While leaders in all 85 companies were interviewed for the research in 2003-2004, 42 firms provided data in 2007. Data was analyzed using regression analysis. The results show the value and importance of early market knowledge and technology knowledge as well as an entrepreneurial company posture for subsequent opportunity recognition. The highest numbers of new opportunities are recognized in firms where high levels of market knowledge are combined with high levels of technology knowledge (measured with a number of patents). A firm’s entrepreneurial orientation also enhances its opportunity recognition. Furthermore, the results show that new ventures with more market knowledge are able to gather more equity investments, license out more technologies, and achieve higher sales than new ventures with lower levels of market knowledge. Overall, the findings of this dissertation help further our understanding of the sources of entrepreneurial opportunities, and should encourage further research in this area.

Essays on competition in the pharmaceutical industry

Chapter 1: Patents and Entry Competition in the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Role of Marketing Exclusivity. Effective patent length for innovation drugs is severely curtailed because of extensive efficacy and safety tests required for FDA approval, raising concern over adequacy of incentives for new drug development. The Hatch-Waxman Act extends patent length for new drugs by five years, but also promotes generic entry by simplifying approval procedures and granting 180-day marketing exclusivity to a first generic entrant before the patent expires. In this paper we present a dynamic model to examine the effect of marketing exclusivity. We find that marketing exclusivity may be redundant and its removal may increase generic firms' profits and social welfare. ^ Chapter 2: Why Authorized Generics?: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations Facing generic competition, the brand-name companies some-times launch generic versions themselves called authorized generics. This practice is puzzling. If it is cannibalization, it cannot be profitable. If it is divisionalization, it should be practiced always instead of sometimes. I explain this phenomenon in terms of switching costs in a model in which the incumbent first develops a customer base to ready itself against generic competition later. I show that only sufficiently low switching costs or large market size justifies launch of AGs. I then use prescription drug data to test those results and find support. ^ Chapter 3: The Merger Paradox and R&D Oligopoly theory says that merger is unprofitable, unless a majority of firms in industry merge. Here, we introduce R&D opportunities to resolve this so-called merger paradox. We have three results. First, when there is one R&D firm, that firm can profitably merge with any number of non-R&D firms. Second, with multiple R&D firms and multiple non-R&D firms, all R&D firms can profitably merge. Third, with two R&D firms and two non-R&D firms, each R&D firms prefer to merge with a non-R&D firm. With three or more than non-R&D firms, however, the R&D firms prefer to merge with each other.^

Essays on investment, growth and income distribution

In this dissertation, I examine both theoretically and empirically the relationship between stock prices and income distribution using an endogenous growth model with social status impatience.^ The theoretical part looks into how status impatience and current economic status jointly determine time preference, savings, future economic status, stock prices, growth and wealth distribution in the steady state. This work builds on Burgstaller and Karayalcin (1996).^ More specifically, I look at (i) the effects of the distribution of status impatience levels on the distribution of steady state assets, incomes and consumption and (ii) the effects of changes in relative levels of status impatience on stock prices. Therefore, from (i) and (ii), I derive the correlation between stock prices, incomes and asset distribution. Also, the analysis of the stack market is undertaken in the presence of adjustment costs to investments.^ The empirical chapter looks at (i) the correlation between income inequality and long run economic growth on the one hand and (ii) the correlation between stock market prices and income inequality on the other. The role of stock prices and social status is examined to better understand the forces that enable a country to grow overtime and to determine why output per capita varies across countries. The data are from Summers and Heston (1988), Barro and Wolf (1989), Alesina and Rodrik (1994), Global financial Database (1997) and the World Bank. Data for social status are collected through a primary sample survey on the internet. Twenty-five developed and developing countries are included in the sample.^ The model developed in this study was specified as a system of simultaneous equations, in which per capita growth rate and income inequality were endogenous variables. Additionally, stock price index and social status measures were also incorporated. The results indicate that income inequality is inversely related to economic growth. In addition, increase in income inequality arising from higher stock prices constrains growth. Moreover, where social status is determined by income levels, it influences long run growth. Therefore, these results support findings of Persson and Tabellini (1994) and Alesina and Rodrik (1994). ^

Education policy and national income distribution: New evidence from recent cross -country data

In the mid 19th century, Horace Mann insisted that a broad provision of public schooling should take precedence over the liberal education of an elite group. In that regard, his generation constructed a state sponsored common schooling enterprise to educate the masses. More than 100 years later, the institution of public schooling fails to maintain an image fully representative of the ideals of equity and inclusion. Critical theory in educational thought associates the dominant practice of functional schooling with maintenance of the status quo, an unequal distribution of financial, political, and social resources. This study examined the empirical basis for the association of public schooling with the status quo using the most recent and comparable cross-country income inequality data. Multiple regression analysis evaluated the possible relationship between national income inequality change over the period 1985-2005 and variables representative of national measures of education supply in the prior decade. The estimated model of income inequality development attempted to quantify the relationship between education supply factors and subsequent income inequality developments by controlling for economic, demographic, and exogenous factors. The sample included all nations with comparable income inequality data over the measurement period, N = 56. Does public school supply affect national income distribution? The estimated model suggested that an increase in the average years of schooling among the population age 15 years or older, measured over the period 1975-1985, provided a mechanism that resulted in a more equal distribution of income over the period 1985-2005 among low and lower-middle income nations. The model also suggested that income inequality increased less or decreased more in smaller economies and when the percentage of the population age < 15 years grew more slowly over the period 1985-2000. In contrast, this study identified no significant relationship between school supply changes measured over prior periods and income inequality development over the period 1985-2005 among upper-middle and high income nations.