A reliability centered maintenance decision system for a discrete part manufacturing facility

This thesis develops and validates the framework of a specialized maintenance decision support system for a discrete part manufacturing facility. Its construction utilizes a modular approach based on the fundamental philosophy of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM). The proposed architecture uniquely integrates System Decomposition, System Evaluation, Failure Analysis, Logic Tree Analysis, and Maintenance Planning modules. It presents an ideal solution to the unique maintenance inadequacies of modern discrete part manufacturing systems. Well established techniques are incorporated as building blocks of the system's modules. These include Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Logic Tree Analysis (LTA), Theory of Constraints (TOC), and an Expert System (ES). A Maintenance Information System (MIS) performs the system's support functions. Validation was performed by field testing of the system at a Miami based manufacturing facility. Such a maintenance support system potentially reduces downtime losses and contributes to higher product quality output. Ultimately improved profitability is the final outcome. ^

Using extreme value theory to value stock market returns

Extreme stock price movements are of great concern to both investors and the entire economy. For investors, a single negative return, or a combination of several smaller returns, can possible wipe out so much capital that the firm or portfolio becomes illiquid or insolvent. If enough investors experience this loss, it could shock the entire economy. An example of such a case is the stock market crash of 1987. Furthermore, there has been a lot of recent interest regarding the increasing volatility of stock prices. ^ This study presents an analysis of extreme stock price movements. The data utilized was the daily returns for the Standard and Poor's 500 index from January 3, 1978 to May 31, 2001. Research questions were analyzed using the statistical models provided by extreme value theory. One of the difficulties in examining stock price data is that there is no consensus regarding the correct shape of the distribution function generating the data. An advantage with extreme value theory is that no detailed knowledge of this distribution function is required to apply the asymptotic theory. We focus on the tail of the distribution. ^ Extreme value theory allows us to estimate a tail index, which we use to derive bounds on the returns for very low probabilities on an excess. Such information is useful in evaluating the volatility of stock prices. There are three possible limit laws for the maximum: Gumbel (thick-tailed), Fréchet (thin-tailed) or Weibull (no tail). Results indicated that extreme returns during the time period studied follow a Fréchet distribution. Thus, this study finds that extreme value analysis is a valuable tool for examining stock price movements and can be more efficient than the usual variance in measuring risk. ^

Quantum transition state theory and solving a first order master equation for complex reactions numerically

The field of chemical kinetics is an exciting and active field. The prevailing theories make a number of simplifying assumptions that do not always hold in actual cases. Another current problem concerns a development of efficient numerical algorithms for solving the master equations that arise in the description of complex reactions. The objective of the present work is to furnish a completely general and exact theory of reaction rates, in a form reminiscent of transition state theory, valid for all fluid phases and also to develop a computer program that can solve complex reactions by finding the concentrations of all participating substances as a function of time. To do so, the full quantum scattering theory is used for deriving the exact rate law, and then the resulting cumulative reaction probability is put into several equivalent forms that take into account all relativistic effects if applicable, including one that is strongly reminiscent of transition state theory, but includes corrections from scattering theory. Then two programs, one for solving complex reactions, the other for solving first order linear kinetic master equations to solve them, have been developed and tested for simple applications.

Secure information flow via stripping and fast simulation

Type systems for secure information flow aim to prevent a program from leaking information from H (high) to L (low) variables. Traditionally, bisimulation has been the prevalent technique for proving the soundness of such systems. This work introduces a new proof technique based on stripping and fast simulation, and shows that it can be applied in a number of cases where bisimulation fails. We present a progressive development of this technique over a representative sample of languages including a simple imperative language (core theory), a multiprocessing nondeterministic language, a probabilistic language, and a language with cryptographic primitives. In the core theory we illustrate the key concepts of this technique in a basic setting. A fast low simulation in the context of transition systems is a binary relation where simulating states can match the moves of simulated states while maintaining the equivalence of low variables; stripping is a function that removes high commands from programs. We show that we can prove secure information flow by arguing that the stripping relation is a fast low simulation. We then extend the core theory to an abstract distributed language under a nondeterministic scheduler. Next, we extend to a probabilistic language with a random assignment command; we generalize fast simulation to the setting of discrete time Markov Chains, and prove approximate probabilistic noninterference. Finally, we introduce cryptographic primitives into the probabilistic language and prove computational noninterference, provided that the underling encryption scheme is secure.

A theory of constraints service systems improvement method: Case of the airline turnaround problem

This dissertation develops a process improvement method for service operations based on the Theory of Constraints (TOC), a management philosophy that has been shown to be effective in manufacturing for decreasing WIP and improving throughput. While TOC has enjoyed much attention and success in the manufacturing arena, its application to services in general has been limited. The contribution to industry and knowledge is a method for improving global performance measures based on TOC principles. The method proposed in this dissertation will be tested using discrete event simulation based on the scenario of the service factory of airline turnaround operations. To evaluate the method, a simulation model of aircraft turn operations of a U.S. based carrier was made and validated using actual data from airline operations. The model was then adjusted to reflect an application of the Theory of Constraints for determining how to deploy the scarce resource of ramp workers. The results indicate that, given slight modifications to TOC terminology and the development of a method for constraint identification, the Theory of Constraints can be applied with success to services. Bottlenecks in services must be defined as those processes for which the process rates and amount of work remaining are such that completing the process will not be possible without an increase in the process rate. The bottleneck ratio is used to determine to what degree a process is a constraint. Simulation results also suggest that redefining performance measures to reflect a global business perspective of reducing costs related to specific flights versus the operational local optimum approach of turning all aircraft quickly results in significant savings to the company. Savings to the annual operating costs of the airline were simulated to equal 30% of possible current expenses for misconnecting passengers with a modest increase in utilization of the workers through a more efficient heuristic of deploying them to the highest priority tasks. This dissertation contributes to the literature on service operations by describing a dynamic, adaptive dispatch approach to manage service factory operations similar to airline turnaround operations using the management philosophy of the Theory of Constraints.

The Effects of the Word of Wisdom Meditation Technique on the Development of Executive Function Skills in Early Childhood Education

This theory-based paper examines the definition of Executive Functioning (EF) skills, their importance in the early childhood classroom and how to aid in their natural development. The Word of Wisdom meditation technique is considered as a viable alternative to increase the natural development of EF skills in early childhood.

Association between mean residual life (MRL) and failure rate functions for continuous and discrete lifetime distributions

The purpose of this study was to correct some mistakes in the literature and derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the MRL to follow the roller-coaster pattern of the corresponding failure rate function. It was also desired to find the conditions under which the discrete failure rate function has an upside-down bathtub shape if corresponding MRL function has a bathtub shape. The study showed that if discrete MRL has a bathtub shape, then under some conditions the corresponding failure rate function has an upside-down bathtub shape. Also the study corrected some mistakes in proofs of Tang, Lu and Chew (1999) and established a necessary and sufficient condition for the MRL to follow the roller-coaster pattern of the corresponding failure rate function. Similarly, some mistakes in Gupta and Gupta (2000) are corrected, with the ensuing results being expanded and proved thoroughly to establish the relationship between the crossing points of the failure rate and associated MRL functions. The new results derived in this study will be useful to model various lifetime data that occur in environmental studies, medical research, electronics engineering, and in many other areas of science and technology.