Does the Pareto Distribution of Hurricane Damage Inherit its Fat Tail from a Zipf Distribution of Assets at Hazard?

Tropical Cyclones are a continuing threat to life and property. Willoughby (2012) found that a Pareto (power-law) cumulative distribution fitted to the most damaging 10% of US hurricane seasons fit their impacts well. Here, we find that damage follows a Pareto distribution because the assets at hazard follow a Zipf distribution, which can be thought of as a Pareto distribution with exponent 1. The Z-CAT model is an idealized hurricane catastrophe model that represents a coastline where populated places with Zipf- distributed assets are randomly scattered and damaged by virtual hurricanes with sizes and intensities generated through a Monte-Carlo process. Results produce realistic Pareto exponents. The ability of the Z-CAT model to simulate different climate scenarios allowed testing of sensitivities to Maximum Potential Intensity, landfall rates and building structure vulnerability. The Z-CAT model results demonstrate that a statistical significant difference in damage is found when only changes in the parameters create a doubling of damage.

Hybrid multi-objective optimization and hybridized self-organizing response surface method

Numerical optimization is a technique where a computer is used to explore design parameter combinations to find extremes in performance factors. In multi-objective optimization several performance factors can be optimized simultaneously. The solution to multi-objective optimization problems is not a single design, but a family of optimized designs referred to as the Pareto frontier. The Pareto frontier is a trade-off curve in the objective function space composed of solutions where performance in one objective function is traded for performance in others. A Multi-Objective Hybridized Optimizer (MOHO) was created for the purpose of solving multi-objective optimization problems by utilizing a set of constituent optimization algorithms. MOHO tracks the progress of the Pareto frontier approximation development and automatically switches amongst those constituent evolutionary optimization algorithms to speed the formation of an accurate Pareto frontier approximation. Aerodynamic shape optimization is one of the oldest applications of numerical optimization. MOHO was used to perform shape optimization on a 0.5-inch ballistic penetrator traveling at Mach number 2.5. Two objectives were simultaneously optimized: minimize aerodynamic drag and maximize penetrator volume. This problem was solved twice. The first time the problem was solved by using Modified Newton Impact Theory (MNIT) to determine the pressure drag on the penetrator. In the second solution, a Parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) solver that includes viscosity was used to evaluate the drag on the penetrator. The studies show the difference in the optimized penetrator shapes when viscosity is absent and present in the optimization. In modern optimization problems, objective function evaluations may require many hours on a computer cluster to perform these types of analysis. One solution is to create a response surface that models the behavior of the objective function. Once enough data about the behavior of the objective function has been collected, a response surface can be used to represent the actual objective function in the optimization process. The Hybrid Self-Organizing Response Surface Method (HYBSORSM) algorithm was developed and used to make response surfaces of objective functions. HYBSORSM was evaluated using a suite of 295 non-linear functions. These functions involve from 2 to 100 variables demonstrating robustness and accuracy of HYBSORSM.

Comprehensive process maps for synthesizing high density aluminum oxide-carbon nanotube coatings by plasma spraying for improved mechanical and wear properties

Plasma sprayed aluminum oxide ceramic coating is widely used due to its outstanding wear, corrosion, and thermal shock resistance. But porosity is the integral feature in the plasma sprayed coating which exponentially degrades its properties. In this study, process maps were developed to obtain Al2O3-CNT composite coatings with the highest density (i.e. lowest porosity) and improved mechanical and wear properties. Process map is defined as a set of relationships that correlates large number of plasma processing parameters to the coating properties. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) were added as reinforcement to Al2O 3 coating to improve the fracture toughness and wear resistance. Two novel powder processing approaches viz spray drying and chemical vapor growth were adopted to disperse CNTs in Al2O3 powder. The degree of CNT dispersion via chemical vapor deposition (CVD) was superior to spray drying but CVD could not synthesize powder in large amount. Hence optimization of plasma processing parameters and process map development was limited to spray dried Al2O3 powder containing 0, 4 and 8 wt. % CNTs. An empirical model using Pareto diagram was developed to link plasma processing parameters with the porosity of coating. Splat morphology as a function of plasma processing parameter was also studied to understand its effect on mechanical properties. Addition of a mere 1.5 wt. % CNTs via CVD technique showed ∼27% and ∼24% increase in the elastic modulus and fracture toughness respectively. Improved toughness was attributed to combined effect of lower porosity and uniform dispersion of CNTs which promoted the toughening by CNT bridging, crack deflection and strong CNT/Al2O3 interface. Al2O 3-8 wt. % CNT coating synthesized using spray dried powder showed 73% improvement in the fracture toughness when porosity reduced from 4.7% to 3.0%. Wear resistance of all coatings at room and elevated temperatures (573 K, 873 K) showed improvement with CNT addition and decreased porosity. Such behavior was due to improved mechanical properties, protective film formation due to tribochemical reaction, and CNT bridging between the splats. Finally, process maps correlating porosity content, CNT content, mechanical properties, and wear properties were developed.

Essays on emissions trading markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Optimization of three-dimensional branching networks of microchannels for thermal management of microelectronics

The aim of this work is to present a methodology to develop cost-effective thermal management solutions for microelectronic devices, capable of removing maximum amount of heat and delivering maximally uniform temperature distributions. The topological and geometrical characteristics of multiple-story three-dimensional branching networks of microchannels were developed using multi-objective optimization. A conjugate heat transfer analysis software package and an automatic 3D microchannel network generator were developed and coupled with a modified version of a particle-swarm optimization algorithm with a goal of creating a design tool for 3D networks of optimized coolant flow passages. Numerical algorithms in the conjugate heat transfer solution package include a quasi-ID thermo-fluid solver and a steady heat diffusion solver, which were validated against results from high-fidelity Navier-Stokes equations solver and analytical solutions for basic fluid dynamics test cases. Pareto-optimal solutions demonstrate that thermal loads of up to 500 W/cm2 can be managed with 3D microchannel networks, with pumping power requirements up to 50% lower with respect to currently used high-performance cooling technologies.