Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Recent Changes in Central and Eastern Pacific El Niño

Recent research indicates that characteristics of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have changed over the past several decades. Here, I examined different flavors of El Niño in the observational record and the recent changes in the character of El Niño events. The fundamental physical processes that drive ENSO were described and the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types or flavors of El Niño were defined. Using metrics from the peer-reviewed literature, I examined several historical data sets to interpret El Niño behavior from 1950-2010. A Monte Carlo Simulation was then applied to output from coupled model simulations to test the statistical significance of recent observations surrounding EP and CP El Niño. Results suggested that EP and CP El Niño had been occurring in a similar fashion over the past 60 years with natural variability, but no significant increase in CP El Niño behavior.

Attitudes towards the marine environment and implications for marine resource management in Seward, Alaska

This research, conducted in 2006-2008, examines the ways in which various groups involved with the marine resources of Seward, Alaska construct attitudes towards the environment. Participant observation and semi-structured interviews are used to assess how commercial halibut fishers, tour boat operators, local residents and government officials understand the marine environment based on their previous experiences. This study also explores how ideologies relate to the current practices of each group. Two theories orient the analyses: The first, cultural modeling provided a theoretical and methodological framework for pursuing a more comprehensive analysis of resource management. The second, Theory of Reasoned Action (Ajzen and Fishbein 1980), guided the analysis of the ways in which each participant’s ideology towards the marine environment relates to their practice. Aside from contributing to a better understanding of a coastal community’s ideologies and practices, this dissertation sought to better understand the role of ecological ideologies and behaviors in fisheries management. The research illustrates certain domains where ideologies and practices concerning Pacific halibut and the marine environment differ among commercial fishers, government, and management officials, tour boat operators and residents of Seward, AK. These differences offer insights into how future collaborative efforts between government officials, managers and local marine resource users might better incorporate local ideology into management, and provide ecological information to local marine resource users in culturally appropriate ways.

Attitudes towards the Marine Environment and Implications for Marine Resource Management in Seward, Alaska

This research, conducted in 2006-2008, examines the ways in which various groups involved with the marine resources of Seward, Alaska construct attitudes towards the environment. Participant observation and semi-structured interviews are used to assess how commercial halibut fishers, tour boat operators, local residents and government officials understand the marine environment based on their previous experiences. This study also explores how ideologies relate to the current practices of each group. Two theories orient the analyses: The first, cultural modeling provided a theoretical and methodological framework for pursuing a more comprehensive analysis of resource management. The second, Theory of Reasoned Action (Ajzen and Fishbein 1980), guided the analysis of the ways in which each participant’s ideology towards the marine environment relates to their practice. Aside from contributing to a better understanding of a coastal community’s ideologies and practices, this dissertation sought to better understand the role of ecological ideologies and behaviors in fisheries management. The research illustrates certain domains where ideologies and practices concerning Pacific halibut and the marine environment differ among commercial fishers, government, and management officials, tour boat operators and residents of Seward, AK. These differences offer insights into how future collaborative efforts between government officials, managers and local marine resource users might better incorporate local ideology into management, and provide ecological information to local marine resource users in culturally appropriate ways.