Development of safety performance functions for SafetyAnalyst applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

Development of Safety Performance Functions for SafetyAnalyst Applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency’s safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

Development of a personality profile of a firefighter

This study investigated the differences in personality, consistent with the vocational theory of personality as proposed by Holland (1997), for a modern day firefighter. This study also investigates the relationships between personality characteristics and job duties performed by firefighters and firefighter-paramedics. Archival data from employees (N = 98) of a Southeastern Florida fire department who completed the Hogan Personality Inventory (HPI), Hogan Development Survey (HDS) and Motives, Values, Preferences Inventory (MVPI), as well as a self-report questionnaire on variety proneness (boredom), job satisfaction, and affective well-being data were analyzed. The scores of the firefighters on the HPI, HDS, and MVPI were used as predictive data, and criterion data used in this study were self-report satisfaction data on job involvement, variety proneness (boredom), and affective well-being. In addition, criterion data on performance were obtained from the employment histories of the participants, and were correlated with the personality scale scores to determine if personality is predictive of aspects of performance. ^ Participants in this study varied with respect to the type of firefighter duties required from them on their jobs. The participants were categorized into three duty classifications: Group 1 (G1) are the firefighters hired before 1990 and are only certified as firefighters; Group 2 (G2) are the firefighters hired before 1990 who became paramedics at some point after employment and after fire college training; and Group 3 (G3) are the firefighters hired after 1990 who were trained as paramedics in the fire college and who were aware of the paramedic requirement at time of application or were already trained as paramedics at the time of application. From the research reviewed and presented in this paper, hypotheses were generated about differences between the personality types of firefighter groups G1 and G2 versus G3, in accordance with Holland's theories. In addition, it was hypothesized that personality will predict outcomes of satisfaction and performance. ^ Results found that job satisfaction was not found to be statistically different among the groups. However, the groups differed significantly on 5 of the predictive instrument scales, and personality was found to be a predictor of limited performance data. ^

WAWASH Knowledge Management System

A knowledge management tool developed by the GIS Center for to support project reporting tools, project publications, and a project data portal for materials related to the WAWASH Program.

Host and network optimizations for performance enhancement and energy efficiency in data center networks

Modern data centers host hundreds of thousands of servers to achieve economies of scale. Such a huge number of servers create challenges for the data center network (DCN) to provide proportionally large bandwidth. In addition, the deployment of virtual machines (VMs) in data centers raises the requirements for efficient resource allocation and find-grained resource sharing. Further, the large number of servers and switches in the data center consume significant amounts of energy. Even though servers become more energy efficient with various energy saving techniques, DCN still accounts for 20% to 50% of the energy consumed by the entire data center. The objective of this dissertation is to enhance DCN performance as well as its energy efficiency by conducting optimizations on both host and network sides. First, as the DCN demands huge bisection bandwidth to interconnect all the servers, we propose a parallel packet switch (PPS) architecture that directly processes variable length packets without segmentation-and-reassembly (SAR). The proposed PPS achieves large bandwidth by combining switching capacities of multiple fabrics, and it further improves the switch throughput by avoiding padding bits in SAR. Second, since certain resource demands of the VM are bursty and demonstrate stochastic nature, to satisfy both deterministic and stochastic demands in VM placement, we propose the Max-Min Multidimensional Stochastic Bin Packing (M3SBP) algorithm. M3SBP calculates an equivalent deterministic value for the stochastic demands, and maximizes the minimum resource utilization ratio of each server. Third, to provide necessary traffic isolation for VMs that share the same physical network adapter, we propose the Flow-level Bandwidth Provisioning (FBP) algorithm. By reducing the flow scheduling problem to multiple stages of packet queuing problems, FBP guarantees the provisioned bandwidth and delay performance for each flow. Finally, while DCNs are typically provisioned with full bisection bandwidth, DCN traffic demonstrates fluctuating patterns, we propose a joint host-network optimization scheme to enhance the energy efficiency of DCNs during off-peak traffic hours. The proposed scheme utilizes a unified representation method that converts the VM placement problem to a routing problem and employs depth-first and best-fit search to find efficient paths for flows.

Improving resource management in virtualized data centers using application performance models

The rapid growth of virtualized data centers and cloud hosting services is making the management of physical resources such as CPU, memory, and I/O bandwidth in data center servers increasingly important. Server management now involves dealing with multiple dissimilar applications with varying Service-Level-Agreements (SLAs) and multiple resource dimensions. The multiplicity and diversity of resources and applications are rendering administrative tasks more complex and challenging. This thesis aimed to develop a framework and techniques that would help substantially reduce data center management complexity.^ We specifically addressed two crucial data center operations. First, we precisely estimated capacity requirements of client virtual machines (VMs) while renting server space in cloud environment. Second, we proposed a systematic process to efficiently allocate physical resources to hosted VMs in a data center. To realize these dual objectives, accurately capturing the effects of resource allocations on application performance is vital. The benefits of accurate application performance modeling are multifold. Cloud users can size their VMs appropriately and pay only for the resources that they need; service providers can also offer a new charging model based on the VMs performance instead of their configured sizes. As a result, clients will pay exactly for the performance they are actually experiencing; on the other hand, administrators will be able to maximize their total revenue by utilizing application performance models and SLAs. ^ This thesis made the following contributions. First, we identified resource control parameters crucial for distributing physical resources and characterizing contention for virtualized applications in a shared hosting environment. Second, we explored several modeling techniques and confirmed the suitability of two machine learning tools, Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine, to accurately model the performance of virtualized applications. Moreover, we suggested and evaluated modeling optimizations necessary to improve prediction accuracy when using these modeling tools. Third, we presented an approach to optimal VM sizing by employing the performance models we created. Finally, we proposed a revenue-driven resource allocation algorithm which maximizes the SLA-generated revenue for a data center.^

Comparing novice designer performance using a rule -based approach versus a pattern -based approach in conceptual data modeling tasks

Conceptual database design is an unusually difficult and error-prone task for novice designers. This study examined how two training approaches---rule-based and pattern-based---might improve performance on database design tasks. A rule-based approach prescribes a sequence of rules for modeling conceptual constructs, and the action to be taken at various stages while developing a conceptual model. A pattern-based approach presents data modeling structures that occur frequently in practice, and prescribes guidelines on how to recognize and use these structures. This study describes the conceptual framework, experimental design, and results of a laboratory experiment that employed novice designers to compare the effectiveness of the two training approaches (between-subjects) at three levels of task complexity (within subjects). Results indicate an interaction effect between treatment and task complexity. The rule-based approach was significantly better in the low-complexity and the high-complexity cases; there was no statistical difference in the medium-complexity case. Designer performance fell significantly as complexity increased. Overall, though the rule-based approach was not significantly superior to the pattern-based approach in all instances, it out-performed the pattern-based approach at two out of three complexity levels. The primary contributions of the study are (1) the operationalization of the complexity construct to a degree not addressed in previous studies; (2) the development of a pattern-based instructional approach to database design; and (3) the finding that the effectiveness of a particular training approach may depend on the complexity of the task.

Host and Network Optimizations for Performance Enhancement and Energy Efficiency in Data Center Networks

Modern data centers host hundreds of thousands of servers to achieve economies of scale. Such a huge number of servers create challenges for the data center network (DCN) to provide proportionally large bandwidth. In addition, the deployment of virtual machines (VMs) in data centers raises the requirements for efficient resource allocation and find-grained resource sharing. Further, the large number of servers and switches in the data center consume significant amounts of energy. Even though servers become more energy efficient with various energy saving techniques, DCN still accounts for 20% to 50% of the energy consumed by the entire data center. The objective of this dissertation is to enhance DCN performance as well as its energy efficiency by conducting optimizations on both host and network sides. First, as the DCN demands huge bisection bandwidth to interconnect all the servers, we propose a parallel packet switch (PPS) architecture that directly processes variable length packets without segmentation-and-reassembly (SAR). The proposed PPS achieves large bandwidth by combining switching capacities of multiple fabrics, and it further improves the switch throughput by avoiding padding bits in SAR. Second, since certain resource demands of the VM are bursty and demonstrate stochastic nature, to satisfy both deterministic and stochastic demands in VM placement, we propose the Max-Min Multidimensional Stochastic Bin Packing (M3SBP) algorithm. M3SBP calculates an equivalent deterministic value for the stochastic demands, and maximizes the minimum resource utilization ratio of each server. Third, to provide necessary traffic isolation for VMs that share the same physical network adapter, we propose the Flow-level Bandwidth Provisioning (FBP) algorithm. By reducing the flow scheduling problem to multiple stages of packet queuing problems, FBP guarantees the provisioned bandwidth and delay performance for each flow. Finally, while DCNs are typically provisioned with full bisection bandwidth, DCN traffic demonstrates fluctuating patterns, we propose a joint host-network optimization scheme to enhance the energy efficiency of DCNs during off-peak traffic hours. The proposed scheme utilizes a unified representation method that converts the VM placement problem to a routing problem and employs depth-first and best-fit search to find efficient paths for flows.

Improving Resource Management in Virtualized Data Centers using Application Performance Models

The rapid growth of virtualized data centers and cloud hosting services is making the management of physical resources such as CPU, memory, and I/O bandwidth in data center servers increasingly important. Server management now involves dealing with multiple dissimilar applications with varying Service-Level-Agreements (SLAs) and multiple resource dimensions. The multiplicity and diversity of resources and applications are rendering administrative tasks more complex and challenging. This thesis aimed to develop a framework and techniques that would help substantially reduce data center management complexity. We specifically addressed two crucial data center operations. First, we precisely estimated capacity requirements of client virtual machines (VMs) while renting server space in cloud environment. Second, we proposed a systematic process to efficiently allocate physical resources to hosted VMs in a data center. To realize these dual objectives, accurately capturing the effects of resource allocations on application performance is vital. The benefits of accurate application performance modeling are multifold. Cloud users can size their VMs appropriately and pay only for the resources that they need; service providers can also offer a new charging model based on the VMs performance instead of their configured sizes. As a result, clients will pay exactly for the performance they are actually experiencing; on the other hand, administrators will be able to maximize their total revenue by utilizing application performance models and SLAs. This thesis made the following contributions. First, we identified resource control parameters crucial for distributing physical resources and characterizing contention for virtualized applications in a shared hosting environment. Second, we explored several modeling techniques and confirmed the suitability of two machine learning tools, Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine, to accurately model the performance of virtualized applications. Moreover, we suggested and evaluated modeling optimizations necessary to improve prediction accuracy when using these modeling tools. Third, we presented an approach to optimal VM sizing by employing the performance models we created. Finally, we proposed a revenue-driven resource allocation algorithm which maximizes the SLA-generated revenue for a data center.