Learning Data-Driven Models of Non-Verbal Behaviors for Building Rapport Using an Intelligent Virtual Agent

There is a growing societal need to address the increasing prevalence of behavioral health issues, such as obesity, alcohol or drug use, and general lack of treatment adherence for a variety of health problems. The statistics, worldwide and in the USA, are daunting. Excessive alcohol use is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States (with 79,000 deaths annually), and is responsible for a wide range of health and social problems. On the positive side though, these behavioral health issues (and associated possible diseases) can often be prevented with relatively simple lifestyle changes, such as losing weight with a diet and/or physical exercise, or learning how to reduce alcohol consumption. Medicine has therefore started to move toward finding ways of preventively promoting wellness, rather than solely treating already established illness. Evidence-based patient-centered Brief Motivational Interviewing (BMI) interven- tions have been found particularly effective in helping people find intrinsic motivation to change problem behaviors after short counseling sessions, and to maintain healthy lifestyles over the long-term. Lack of locally available personnel well-trained in BMI, however, often limits access to successful interventions for people in need. To fill this accessibility gap, Computer-Based Interventions (CBIs) have started to emerge. Success of the CBIs, however, critically relies on insuring engagement and retention of CBI users so that they remain motivated to use these systems and come back to use them over the long term as necessary. Because of their text-only interfaces, current CBIs can therefore only express limited empathy and rapport, which are the most important factors of health interventions. Fortunately, in the last decade, computer science research has progressed in the design of simulated human characters with anthropomorphic communicative abilities. Virtual characters interact using humans’ innate communication modalities, such as facial expressions, body language, speech, and natural language understanding. By advancing research in Artificial Intelligence (AI), we can improve the ability of artificial agents to help us solve CBI problems. To facilitate successful communication and social interaction between artificial agents and human partners, it is essential that aspects of human social behavior, especially empathy and rapport, be considered when designing human-computer interfaces. Hence, the goal of the present dissertation is to provide a computational model of rapport to enhance an artificial agent’s social behavior, and to provide an experimental tool for the psychological theories shaping the model. Parts of this thesis were already published in [LYL+12, AYL12, AL13, ALYR13, LAYR13, YALR13, ALY14].

Evidence of the heterogeneous market hypothesis using wavelet multi -resolution analysis

In finance literature many economic theories and models have been proposed to explain and estimate the relationship between risk and return. Assuming risk averseness and rational behavior on part of the investor, the models are developed which are supposed to help in forming efficient portfolios that either maximize (minimize) the expected rate of return (risk) for a given level of risk (rates of return). One of the most used models to form these efficient portfolios is the Sharpe's Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the development of this model it is assumed that the investors have homogeneous expectations about the future probability distribution of the rates of return. That is, every investor assumes the same values of the parameters of the probability distribution. Likewise financial volatility homogeneity is commonly assumed, where volatility is taken as investment risk which is usually measured by the variance of the rates of return. Typically the square root of the variance is used to define financial volatility, furthermore it is also often assumed that the data generating process is made of independent and identically distributed random variables. This again implies that financial volatility is measured from homogeneous time series with stationary parameters. In this dissertation, we investigate the assumptions of homogeneity of market agents and provide evidence for the case of heterogeneity in market participants' information, objectives, and expectations about the parameters of the probability distribution of prices as given by the differences in the empirical distributions corresponding to different time scales, which in this study are associated with different classes of investors, as well as demonstrate that statistical properties of the underlying data generating processes including the volatility in the rates of return are quite heterogeneous. In other words, we provide empirical evidence against the traditional views about homogeneity using non-parametric wavelet analysis on trading data, The results show heterogeneity of financial volatility at different time scales, and time-scale is one of the most important aspects in which trading behavior differs. In fact we conclude that heterogeneity as posited by the Heterogeneous Markets Hypothesis is the norm and not the exception.

Influence of hydrobiogeochemistry on transport of chromium through manganese -containing sediments: Experimental and modeling approaches

Chromium (Cr) is a metal of particular environmental concern, owing to its toxicity and widespread occurrence in groundwater, soil, and soil solution. A combination of hydrological, geochemical, and microbiological processes governs the subsurface migration of Cr. Little effort has been devoted to examining how these biogeochemical reactions combine with hydrologic processes influence Cr migration. This study has focused on the complex problem of predicting the Cr transport in laboratory column experiments. A 1-D reactive transport model was developed and evaluated against data obtained from laboratory column experiments. ^ A series of dynamic laboratory column experiments were conducted under abiotic and biotic conditions. Cr(III) was injected into columns packed with β-MnO 2-coated sand at different initial concentrations, variable flow rates, and at two different pore water pH (3.0 and 4.0). In biotic anaerobic column experiments Cr(VI) along with lactate was injected into columns packed with quartz sand or β-MnO2-coated sand and bacteria, Shewanella alga Simidu (BrY-MT). A mathematical model was developed which included advection-dispersion equations for the movement of Cr(III), Cr(VI), dissolved oxygen, lactate, and biomass. The model included first-order rate laws governing the adsorption of each Cr species and lactate. The equations for transport and adsorption were coupled with nonlinear equations for rate-limited oxidation-reduction reactions along with dual-monod kinetic equations. Kinetic batch experiments were conducted to determine the reduction of Cr(VI) by BrY-MT in three different substrates. Results of the column experiments with Cr(III)-containing influent solutions demonstrate that β-MnO2 effectively catalyzes the oxidation of Cr(III) to Cr(VI). For a given influent concentration and pore water velocity, oxidation rates are higher, and hence effluent concentrations of Cr(VI) are greater, at pH 4 relative to pH 3. Reduction of Cr(VI) by BrY-MT was rapid (within one hour) in columns packed with quartz sand, whereas Cr(VI) reduction by BrY-MT was delayed (57 hours) in presence of β-MnO 2-coated sand. BrY-MT grown in BHIB (brain heart infusion broth) reduced maximum amount of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) followed by TSB (tryptic soy broth) and M9 (minimum media). The comparisons of data and model results from the column experiments show that the depths associated with Cr(III) oxidation and transport within sediments of shallow aquatic systems can strongly influence trends in surface water quality. The results of this study suggests that carefully performed, laboratory column experiments is a useful tool in determining the biotransformation of redox-sensitive metals even in the presence of strong oxidant, like β-MnO2. ^

Three-dimensional brain fiber tracking modeling in diffusion tensor imaging

This dissertation establishes the foundation for a new 3-D visual interface integrating Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI). The need for such an interface is critical for understanding brain dynamics, and for providing more accurate diagnosis of key brain dysfunctions in terms of neuronal connectivity. ^ This work involved two research fronts: (1) the development of new image processing and visualization techniques in order to accurately establish relational positioning of neuronal fiber tracts and key landmarks in 3-D brain atlases, and (2) the obligation to address the computational requirements such that the processing time is within the practical bounds of clinical settings. The system was evaluated using data from thirty patients and volunteers with the Brain Institute at Miami Children's Hospital. ^ Innovative visualization mechanisms allow for the first time white matter fiber tracts to be displayed alongside key anatomical structures within accurately registered 3-D semi-transparent images of the brain. ^ The segmentation algorithm is based on the calculation of mathematically-tuned thresholds and region-detection modules. The uniqueness of the algorithm is in its ability to perform fast and accurate segmentation of the ventricles. In contrast to the manual selection of the ventricles, which averaged over 12 minutes, the segmentation algorithm averaged less than 10 seconds in its execution. ^ The registration algorithm established searches and compares MR with DT images of the same subject, where derived correlation measures quantify the resulting accuracy. Overall, the images were 27% more correlated after registration, while an average of 1.5 seconds is all it took to execute the processes of registration, interpolation, and re-slicing of the images all at the same time and in all the given dimensions. ^ This interface was fully embedded into a fiber-tracking software system in order to establish an optimal research environment. This highly integrated 3-D visualization system reached a practical level that makes it ready for clinical deployment. ^

Computational modeling of intermediate temperature proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells

A two-phase three-dimensional computational model of an intermediate temperature (120--190°C) proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell is presented. This represents the first attempt to model PEM fuel cells employing intermediate temperature membranes, in this case, phosphoric acid doped polybenzimidazole (PBI). To date, mathematical modeling of PEM fuel cells has been restricted to low temperature operation, especially to those employing Nafion ® membranes; while research on PBI as an intermediate temperature membrane has been solely at the experimental level. This work is an advancement in the state of the art of both these fields of research. With a growing trend toward higher temperature operation of PEM fuel cells, mathematical modeling of such systems is necessary to help hasten the development of the technology and highlight areas where research should be focused.^ This mathematical model accounted for all the major transport and polarization processes occurring inside the fuel cell, including the two phase phenomenon of gas dissolution in the polymer electrolyte. Results were presented for polarization performance, flux distributions, concentration variations in both the gaseous and aqueous phases, and temperature variations for various heat management strategies. The model predictions matched well with published experimental data, and were self-consistent.^ The major finding of this research was that, due to the transport limitations imposed by the use of phosphoric acid as a doping agent, namely low solubility and diffusivity of dissolved gases and anion adsorption onto catalyst sites, the catalyst utilization is very low (∼1--2%). Significant cost savings were predicted with the use of advanced catalyst deposition techniques that would greatly reduce the eventual thickness of the catalyst layer, and subsequently improve catalyst utilization. The model also predicted that an increase in power output in the order of 50% is expected if alternative doping agents to phosphoric acid can be found, which afford better transport properties of dissolved gases, reduced anion adsorption onto catalyst sites, and which maintain stability and conductive properties at elevated temperatures.^

Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

Lattice Boltzmann modeling of fluid flow and solute transport in karst aquifers

A novel modeling approach is applied to karst hydrology. Long-standing problems in karst hydrology and solute transport are addressed using Lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs). These methods contrast with other modeling approaches that have been applied to karst hydrology. The motivation of this dissertation is to develop new computational models for solving ground water hydraulics and transport problems in karst aquifers, which are widespread around the globe. This research tests the viability of the LBM as a robust alternative numerical technique for solving large-scale hydrological problems. The LB models applied in this research are briefly reviewed and there is a discussion of implementation issues. The dissertation focuses on testing the LB models. The LBM is tested for two different types of inlet boundary conditions for solute transport in finite and effectively semi-infinite domains. The LBM solutions are verified against analytical solutions. Zero-diffusion transport and Taylor dispersion in slits are also simulated and compared against analytical solutions. These results demonstrate the LBM’s flexibility as a solute transport solver. The LBM is applied to simulate solute transport and fluid flow in porous media traversed by larger conduits. A LBM-based macroscopic flow solver (Darcy’s law-based) is linked with an anisotropic dispersion solver. Spatial breakthrough curves in one and two dimensions are fitted against the available analytical solutions. This provides a steady flow model with capabilities routinely found in ground water flow and transport models (e.g., the combination of MODFLOW and MT3D). However the new LBM-based model retains the ability to solve inertial flows that are characteristic of karst aquifer conduits. Transient flows in a confined aquifer are solved using two different LBM approaches. The analogy between Fick’s second law (diffusion equation) and the transient ground water flow equation is used to solve the transient head distribution. An altered-velocity flow solver with source/sink term is applied to simulate a drawdown curve. Hydraulic parameters like transmissivity and storage coefficient are linked with LB parameters. These capabilities complete the LBM’s effective treatment of the types of processes that are simulated by standard ground water models. The LB model is verified against field data for drawdown in a confined aquifer.

Tool cutting force modeling and wear estimation of micro -end-milling operations

The applications of micro-end-milling operations have increased recently. A Micro-End-Milling Operation Guide and Research Tool (MOGART) package has been developed for the study and monitoring of micro-end-milling operations. It includes an analytical cutting force model, neural network based data mapping and forecasting processes, and genetic algorithms based optimization routines. MOGART uses neural networks to estimate tool machinability and forecast tool wear from the experimental cutting force data, and genetic algorithms with the analytical model to monitor tool wear, breakage, run-out, cutting conditions from the cutting force profiles. ^ The performance of MOGART has been tested on the experimental data of over 800 experimental cases and very good agreement has been observed between the theoretical and experimental results. The MOGART package has been applied to the micro-end-milling operation study of Engineering Prototype Center of Radio Technology Division of Motorola Inc. ^

Comparing novice designer performance using a rule -based approach versus a pattern -based approach in conceptual data modeling tasks

Conceptual database design is an unusually difficult and error-prone task for novice designers. This study examined how two training approaches---rule-based and pattern-based---might improve performance on database design tasks. A rule-based approach prescribes a sequence of rules for modeling conceptual constructs, and the action to be taken at various stages while developing a conceptual model. A pattern-based approach presents data modeling structures that occur frequently in practice, and prescribes guidelines on how to recognize and use these structures. This study describes the conceptual framework, experimental design, and results of a laboratory experiment that employed novice designers to compare the effectiveness of the two training approaches (between-subjects) at three levels of task complexity (within subjects). Results indicate an interaction effect between treatment and task complexity. The rule-based approach was significantly better in the low-complexity and the high-complexity cases; there was no statistical difference in the medium-complexity case. Designer performance fell significantly as complexity increased. Overall, though the rule-based approach was not significantly superior to the pattern-based approach in all instances, it out-performed the pattern-based approach at two out of three complexity levels. The primary contributions of the study are (1) the operationalization of the complexity construct to a degree not addressed in previous studies; (2) the development of a pattern-based instructional approach to database design; and (3) the finding that the effectiveness of a particular training approach may depend on the complexity of the task.

Advanced methodologies in dynamic traffic assignment modeling of managed lanes

Managed lane strategies are innovative road operation schemes for addressing congestion problems. These strategies operate a lane (lanes) adjacent to a freeway that provides congestion-free trips to eligible users, such as transit or toll-payers. To ensure the successful implementation of managed lanes, the demand on these lanes need to be accurately estimated. Among different approaches for predicting this demand, the four-step demand forecasting process is most common. Managed lane demand is usually estimated at the assignment step. Therefore, the key to reliably estimating the demand is the utilization of effective assignment modeling processes. ^ Managed lanes are particularly effective when the road is functioning at near-capacity. Therefore, capturing variations in demand and network attributes and performance is crucial for their modeling, monitoring and operation. As a result, traditional modeling approaches, such as those used in static traffic assignment of demand forecasting models, fail to correctly predict the managed lane demand and the associated system performance. The present study demonstrates the power of the more advanced modeling approach of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), as well as the shortcomings of conventional approaches, when used to model managed lanes in congested environments. In addition, the study develops processes to support an effective utilization of DTA to model managed lane operations. ^ Static and dynamic traffic assignments consist of demand, network, and route choice model components that need to be calibrated. These components interact with each other, and an iterative method for calibrating them is needed. In this study, an effective standalone framework that combines static demand estimation and dynamic traffic assignment has been developed to replicate real-world traffic conditions. ^ With advances in traffic surveillance technologies collecting, archiving, and analyzing traffic data is becoming more accessible and affordable. The present study shows how data from multiple sources can be integrated, validated, and best used in different stages of modeling and calibration of managed lanes. Extensive and careful processing of demand, traffic, and toll data, as well as proper definition of performance measures, result in a calibrated and stable model, which closely replicates real-world congestion patterns, and can reasonably respond to perturbations in network and demand properties.^

Intracellular Signaling and Trafficking in Cancer: Role of Rab5-GTPase in Migration and Invasion of Breast Cells

Metastasis is characterized pathologically by uncontrolled cell invasion, proliferation, migration and angiogenesis. Steroid hormones, such as estrogen, and growth factors, which include insulin growth factor I/II (IGF-1/IGF-2) therapy has been associated with most if not all of the features of metastasis. It has been determined that IGF-1 increases cell survival of cancer cells and potentiate the effect of E2 and other ligand growth factors on breast cancer cells. However not much information is available that comprehensively expounds on the roles of insulin growth factor receptor (IGFR) and Rab GTPases may play in breast cancer. The latter, Rab GTPases, are small signaling molecules and critical in the regulation of many cellular processes including cell migration, growth via the endocytic pathway. This research involves the role of Rab GTPases, specifically Rab5 and its guanine exchange factors (GEFs), in the promotion of cancer cell migration and invasion. Two important questions abound: Are IGFR stimulation and downstream effect involved the endocytic pathway in carcinogenesis? What role does Rab5 play in cell migration and invasion of cancer cells? The hypothesis is that growth factor signaling is dependent on Rab5 activity in mediating the aggressiveness of cancer cells. The goal is to demonstrate that IGF-1 signaling is dependent on Rab5 function in breast cancer progression. Here, the results thus far, have shown that while activation of Rab5 may mediate increased cell proliferation, migration and invasion in breast cancer cells, the Rab5 GEF, RIN1 interacts with the IGFR thereby facilitating migration and invasion activities in breast cells. Furthermore, endocytosis of the IGFR in breast cancer cells seems to be caveolin dependent as the data has shown. This taken together, the data shows that IGF-1 signaling in breast cancer cells relies on IGF-1R phosphorylation, caveolae internalization and sequestration to the early endosome RIN1 function and Rab5 activation.

Lattice Boltzmann Modeling of Fluid Flow and Solute Transport in Karst Aquifers

A novel modeling approach is applied to karst hydrology. Long-standing problems in karst hydrology and solute transport are addressed using Lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs). These methods contrast with other modeling approaches that have been applied to karst hydrology. The motivation of this dissertation is to develop new computational models for solving ground water hydraulics and transport problems in karst aquifers, which are widespread around the globe. This research tests the viability of the LBM as a robust alternative numerical technique for solving large-scale hydrological problems. The LB models applied in this research are briefly reviewed and there is a discussion of implementation issues. The dissertation focuses on testing the LB models. The LBM is tested for two different types of inlet boundary conditions for solute transport in finite and effectively semi-infinite domains. The LBM solutions are verified against analytical solutions. Zero-diffusion transport and Taylor dispersion in slits are also simulated and compared against analytical solutions. These results demonstrate the LBM’s flexibility as a solute transport solver. The LBM is applied to simulate solute transport and fluid flow in porous media traversed by larger conduits. A LBM-based macroscopic flow solver (Darcy’s law-based) is linked with an anisotropic dispersion solver. Spatial breakthrough curves in one and two dimensions are fitted against the available analytical solutions. This provides a steady flow model with capabilities routinely found in ground water flow and transport models (e.g., the combination of MODFLOW and MT3D). However the new LBM-based model retains the ability to solve inertial flows that are characteristic of karst aquifer conduits. Transient flows in a confined aquifer are solved using two different LBM approaches. The analogy between Fick’s second law (diffusion equation) and the transient ground water flow equation is used to solve the transient head distribution. An altered-velocity flow solver with source/sink term is applied to simulate a drawdown curve. Hydraulic parameters like transmissivity and storage coefficient are linked with LB parameters. These capabilities complete the LBM’s effective treatment of the types of processes that are simulated by standard ground water models. The LB model is verified against field data for drawdown in a confined aquifer.

Tool cutting force modeling and wear estimation of micro-end-milling operations

The applications of micro-end-milling operations have increased recently. A Micro-End-Milling Operation Guide and Research Tool (MOGART) package has been developed for the study and monitoring of micro-end-milling operations. It includes an analytical cutting force model, neural network based data mapping and forecasting processes, and genetic algorithms based optimization routines. MOGART uses neural networks to estimate tool machinability and forecast tool wear from the experimental cutting force data, and genetic algorithms with the analytical model to monitor tool wear, breakage, run-out, cutting conditions from the cutting force profiles. The performance of MOGART has been tested on the experimental data of over 800 experimental cases and very good agreement has been observed between the theoretical and experimental results. The MOGART package has been applied to the micro-end-milling operation study of Engineering Prototype Center of Radio Technology Division of Motorola Inc.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.