Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

The non-linear acousto-mechanical and thermodynamic response of spherical absorbers to laser pulses of various temporal profiles

This study is to theoretically investigate shockwave and microbubble formation due to laser absorption by microparticles and nanoparticles. The initial motivation for this research was to understand the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for laser damage to the retina, as well as the predict threshold levels for damage for laser pulses with of progressively shorter durations. The strongest absorbers in the retina are micron size melanosomes, and their absorption of laser light causes them to accrue very high energy density. I theoretically investigate how this absorbed energy is transferred to the surrounding medium. For a wide range of conditions I calculate shockwave generation and bubble growth as a function of the three parameters; fluence, pulse duration and pulse shape. In order to develop a rigorous physical treatment, the governing equations for the behavior of an absorber and for the surrounding medium are derived. Shockwave theory is investigated and the conclusion is that a shock pressure explanation is likely to be the underlying physical cause of retinal damage at threshold fluences for sub-nanosecond pulses. The same effects are also expected for non-biological micro and nano absorbers. ^

Improving storage performance through layout optimizations

Disk drives are the bottleneck in the processing of large amounts of data used in almost all common applications. File systems attempt to reduce this by storing data sequentially on the disk drives, thereby reducing the access latencies. Although this strategy is useful when data is retrieved sequentially, the access patterns in real world workloads is not necessarily sequential and this mismatch results in storage I/O performance degradation. This thesis demonstrates that one way to improve the storage performance is to reorganize data on disk drives in the same way in which it is mostly accessed. We identify two classes of accesses: static, where access patterns do not change over the lifetime of the data and dynamic, where access patterns frequently change over short durations of time, and propose, implement and evaluate layout strategies for each of these. Our strategies are implemented in a way that they can be seamlessly integrated or removed from the system as desired. We evaluate our layout strategies for static policies using tree-structured XML data where accesses to the storage device are mostly of two kinds—parent-to-child or child-to-sibling. Our results show that for a specific class of deep-focused queries, the existing file system layout policy performs better by 5–54X. For the non-deep-focused queries, our native layout mechanism shows an improvement of 3–127X. To improve performance of the dynamic access patterns, we implement a self-optimizing storage system that performs rearranges popular block accesses on a dedicated partition based on the observed workload characteristics. Our evaluation shows an improvement of over 80% in the disk busy times over a range of workloads. These results show that applying the knowledge of data access patterns for allocation decisions can substantially improve the I/O performance.

Novel methodology for in situ carbon dioxide enrichment of benthic ecosystems

Future climate change will likely represent a major stress to shallow aquatic and coastal marine communities around the world. Most climate change research, particularly in regards to increased pCO2 and ocean acidification, relies on ex situ mesocosm experimentation, isolating target organisms from their environment. Such mesocosms allow for greater experimental control of some variables, but can often cause unrealistic changes in a variety of environmental factors, leading to “bottle effects.” Here we present an in situ technique of altering dissolved pCO2within nearshore benthic communities (e.g., macrophytes, algae, and/or corals) using submerged clear, open-top chambers. Our technique utilizes a flow-through design that replicates natural water flow conditions and minimizes caging effects. The clear, open-top design additionally ensures that adequate light reaches the benthic community. Our results show that CO2 concentrations and pH can be successfully manipulated for long durations within the open-top chambers, continuously replicating forecasts for the year 2100. Enriched chambers displayed an average 0.46 unit reduction in pH as compared with ambient chambers over a 6-month period. Additionally, CO2 and HCO3 – concentrations were all significantly higher within the enriched chambers. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this technique in comparison to other ex situ mesocosm designs used for climate change research.

Evaluating the relative contributions of hydroperiod and soil fertility on growth of south Florida mangroves

Low and high water periods create contrasting challenges for trees inhabiting periodically flooded wetlands. Low to moderate flood durations and frequencies may bring nutrient subsidies, while greater hydroperiods can be energetically stressful because of oxygen deficiency. We tested the hypothesis that hydroperiod affects the growth of mangrove seedlings and saplings in a greenhouse experiment by varying flood duration while keeping salinity and soil fertility constant. We measured the growth of mangrove trees along a hydroperiod gradient over a two-year period by tracking fine-scale diameter increment. Greenhouse growth studies indicated that under a full range of annual flood durations (0–8760 h/year), hydroperiod alone exerted a significant influence on growth for one species, Laguncularia racemosa, when flooding was imposed for two growing seasons. Field evaluations, on the other hand, indicated that increased flood duration may provide nutrient subsidies for tree growth. Diameter growth was related curvilinearly to site hydroperiod, including flood duration and frequency, as well as to salinity and soil fertility. An analysis of soil physico-chemical parameters suggests that phosphorus fertility, which was also linked directly to hydroperiod, is likely to influence growth on south Florida mangrove sites. The physical removal of phosphorus by greater flood frequencies from upland sources and/or addition of phosphorus from tidal flooding balanced against increased soil aeration and reduced water deficits may be an extremely important growth determinant for south Florida mangroves.

Synthesis and electron emission properties of aligned carbon nanotube arrays

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have become one of the most interesting allotropes of carbon due to their intriguing mechanical, electrical, thermal and optical properties. The synthesis and electron emission properties of CNT arrays have been investigated in this work. Vertically aligned CNTs of different densities were synthesized on copper substrate with catalyst dots patterned by nanosphere lithography. The CNTs synthesized with catalyst dots patterned by spheres of 500 nm diameter exhibited the best electron emission properties with the lowest turn-on/threshold electric fields and the highest field enhancement factor. Furthermore, CNTs were treated with NH3 plasma for various durations and the optimum enhancement was obtained for a plasma treatment of 1.0 min. CNT point emitters were also synthesized on a flat-tip or a sharp-tip to understand the effect of emitter geometry on the electron emission. The experimental results show that electron emission can be enhanced by decreasing the screening effect of the electric field by neighboring CNTs. In another part of the dissertation, vertically aligned CNTs were synthesized on stainless steel (SS) substrates with and without chemical etching or catalyst deposition. The density and length of CNTs were determined by synthesis time. For a prolonged growth time, the catalyst activity terminated and the plasma started etching CNTs destructively. CNTs with uniform diameter and length were synthesized on SS substrates subjected to chemical etching for a period of 40 minutes before the growth. The direct contact of CNTs with stainless steel allowed for the better field emission performance of CNTs synthesized on pristine SS as compared to the CNTs synthesized on Ni/Cr coated SS. Finally, fabrication of large arrays of free-standing vertically aligned CNT/SnO2 core-shell structures was explored by using a simple wet-chemical route. The structure of the SnO2 nanoparticles was studied by X-ray diffraction and electron microscopy. Transmission electron microscopy reveals that a uniform layer of SnO2 is conformally coated on every tapered CNT. The strong adhesion of CNTs with SS guaranteed the formation of the core-shell structures of CNTs with SnO2 or other metal oxides, which are expected to have applications in chemical sensors and lithium ion batteries.

Investigating the Effects of Cognitive Apprenticeship-Based Instructional Coaching on Science Teaching Efficacy Beliefs

The overall purpose of this collected papers dissertation was to examine the utility of a cognitive apprenticeship-based instructional coaching (CAIC) model for improving the science teaching efficacy beliefs (STEB) of preservice and inservice elementary teachers. Many of these teachers perceive science as a difficult subject and feel inadequately prepared to teach it. However, teacher efficacy beliefs have been noted as the strongest indicator of teacher quality, the variable most highly correlated with student achievement outcomes. The literature is scarce on strong, evidence-based theoretical models for improving STEB. This dissertation is comprised of two studies. STUDY #1 was a sequential explanatory mixed-methods study investigating the impact of a reformed CAIC elementary science methods course on the STEB of 26 preservice teachers. Data were collected using the Science Teaching Efficacy Belief Instrument (STEBI-B) and from six post-course interviews. A statistically significant increase in STEB was observed in the quantitative strand. The qualitative data suggested that the preservice teachers perceived all of the CAIC methods as influential, but the significance of each method depended on their unique needs and abilities. STUDY #2 was a participatory action research case study exploring the utility of a CAIC professional development program for improving the STEB of five Bahamian inservice teachers and their competency in implementing an inquiry-based curriculum. Data were collected from pre- and post-interviews and two focus group interviews. Overall, the inservice teachers perceived the intervention as highly effective. The scaffolding and coaching were the CAIC methods portrayed as most influential in developing their STEB, highlighting the importance of interpersonal relationship aspects in successful instructional coaching programs. The teachers also described the CAIC approach as integral in supporting their learning to implement the new inquiry-based curriculum. The overall findings hold important implications for science education reform, including its potential to influence how preservice teacher training and inservice teacher professional development in science are perceived and implemented. Additionally, given the noteworthy results obtained over the relatively short durations, CAIC interventions may also provide an effective means of achieving improvements in preservice and inservice teachers’ STEB more expeditiously than traditional approaches.

Improving Storage Performance Through Layout Optimizations

Disk drives are the bottleneck in the processing of large amounts of data used in almost all common applications. File systems attempt to reduce this by storing data sequentially on the disk drives, thereby reducing the access latencies. Although this strategy is useful when data is retrieved sequentially, the access patterns in real world workloads is not necessarily sequential and this mismatch results in storage I/O performance degradation. This thesis demonstrates that one way to improve the storage performance is to reorganize data on disk drives in the same way in which it is mostly accessed. We identify two classes of accesses: static, where access patterns do not change over the lifetime of the data and dynamic, where access patterns frequently change over short durations of time, and propose, implement and evaluate layout strategies for each of these. Our strategies are implemented in a way that they can be seamlessly integrated or removed from the system as desired. We evaluate our layout strategies for static policies using tree-structured XML data where accesses to the storage device are mostly of two kinds - parent-tochild or child-to-sibling. Our results show that for a specific class of deep-focused queries, the existing file system layout policy performs better by 5-54X. For the non-deep-focused queries, our native layout mechanism shows an improvement of 3-127X. To improve performance of the dynamic access patterns, we implement a self-optimizing storage system that performs rearranges popular block accesses on a dedicated partition based on the observed workload characteristics. Our evaluation shows an improvement of over 80% in the disk busy times over a range of workloads. These results show that applying the knowledge of data access patterns for allocation decisions can substantially improve the I/O performance.

Power Study on Testing Epidemic Alternatives

Detecting change points in epidemic models has been studied by many scholars. Yao (1993) summarized five existing test statistics in the literature. Out of those test statistics, it was observed that the likelihood ratio statistic showed its standout power. However, all of the existing test statistics are based on an assumption that population variance is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in practice. To avoid assuming known population variance, a new test statistic for detecting epidemic models is studied in this thesis. The new test statistic is a parameter-free test statistic which is more powerful compared to the existing test statistics. Different sample sizes and lengths of epidemic durations are used for the power comparison purpose. Monte Carlo simulation is used to find the critical values of the new test statistic and to perform the power comparison. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation result, it can be concluded that the sample size and the length of the duration have some effect on the power of the tests. It can also be observed that the new test statistic studied in this thesis has higher power than the existing test statistics do in all of cases.

Investigating the effects of cognitive apprenticeship-based instructional coaching on science teaching efficacy beliefs

The overall purpose of this collected papers dissertation was to examine the utility of a cognitive apprenticeship-based instructional coaching (CAIC) model for improving the science teaching efficacy beliefs (STEB) of preservice and inservice elementary teachers. Many of these teachers perceive science as a difficult subject and feel inadequately prepared to teach it. However, teacher efficacy beliefs have been noted as the strongest indicator of teacher quality, the variable most highly correlated with student achievement outcomes. The literature is scarce on strong, evidence-based theoretical models for improving STEB.^ This dissertation is comprised of two studies. STUDY #1 was a sequential explanatory mixed-methods study investigating the impact of a reformed CAIC elementary science methods course on the STEB of 26 preservice teachers. Data were collected using the Science Teaching Efficacy Belief Instrument (STEBI-B) and from six post-course interviews. A statistically significant increase in STEB was observed in the quantitative strand. The qualitative data suggested that the preservice teachers perceived all of the CAIC methods as influential, but the significance of each method depended on their unique needs and abilities. ^ STUDY #2 was a participatory action research case study exploring the utility of a CAIC professional development program for improving the STEB of five Bahamian inservice teachers and their competency in implementing an inquiry-based curriculum. Data were collected from pre- and post-interviews and two focus group interviews. Overall, the inservice teachers perceived the intervention as highly effective. The scaffolding and coaching were the CAIC methods portrayed as most influential in developing their STEB, highlighting the importance of interpersonal relationship aspects in successful instructional coaching programs. The teachers also described the CAIC approach as integral in supporting their learning to implement the new inquiry-based curriculum. ^ The overall findings hold important implications for science education reform, including its potential to influence how preservice teacher training and inservice teacher professional development in science are perceived and implemented. Additionally, given the noteworthy results obtained over the relatively short durations, CAIC interventions may also provide an effective means of achieving improvements in preservice and inservice teachers’ STEB more expeditiously than traditional approaches.^

Long-term Trends in Magnitude and Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events in Florida

This study computed trends in extreme precipitation events of Florida for 1950-2010. Hourly aggregated rainfall data from 24 stations of the National Climatic Data Centre were analyzed to derive time-series of extreme rainfalls for 12 durations, ranging from 1 hour to 7 day. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen Approach were applied to detect the significance of trends in annual maximum rainfalls, number of above threshold events and average magnitude of above threshold events for four common analysis periods. Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach was applied to remove the serial correlations and bootstrap resampling approach was used to detect the field significance of trends. The results for annual maximum rainfall revealed dominant increasing trends at the statistical significance level of 0.10, especially for hourly events in longer period and daily events in recent period. The number of above threshold events exhibited strong decreasing trends for hourly durations in all time periods.