Essays on emissions trading markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Essays on Emissions Trading Markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Effects of cooperative and individual integrated learning system on attitudes and achievement in mathematics

This study compares the effects of cooperative delivery (CD) and individual delivery (ID) of integrated learning system (ILS) instruction in mathematics on achievement, attitudes and behaviors in adult (16-21 yrs.) high school students (grades 9-13). The study was conducted in an urban adult high school in Miami-Dade County Public Schools using a pre-test/post-test design. Achievement was measured using the Test of Adult Basic Education (TABE) by CTB MC-Graw-Hill and Compass Learning. An attitudinal survey measured attitudes towards mathematics, the computer-related lessons, and attitudes toward group activities. Behavior was assessed using computer lab observations. ^ Two-way analyses of variance (ANOVA) were conducted on achievement (TABE and Compass) by group and time (pre and post). A one-way ANOVA was conducted on the overall attitude by group on the five components (i.e., content mathematics, delivery/computers, cooperative, partners, and self efficacy) and a one-way ANOVA was conducted on the on-task behavior by group. ^ The results of the study revealed that CD and ID students working on mathematics activities delivered by the ILS performed similarly on achievement tests of the TABE. The CD-ILS students had significantly better overall mathematics attitudes than the ID-ILS students and the ID-ILS group was on-task significantly more than the CD-ILS group. This study concludes that regularity and period of time over which the ILS is used may prove to be important variables although there were insufficient data to fully investigate the impact of models of use. Additionally, a minimum amount of time-on-system is necessary before gains can become apparent in innumeracy and increasing exposure to the system may have beneficial effects on learning. ^

Effects of Cooperative and Individual Integrated Learning System on Attitudes and Achievement in Mathematics

The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of a computer-based Integrated Learning Systems (ILS) model used with adult high school students engaging mathematics activities. This study examined achievement, attitudinal and behavior differences between students completing ILS activities in a traditional, individualized format compared to cooperative learning groups.