Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Reliability analysis of encapsulation methods for lead -based paint through an accelerated life testing

The adverse health effects of long-term exposure to lead are well established, with major uptake into the human body occurring mainly through oral ingestion by young children. Lead-based paint was frequently used in homes built before 1978, particularly in inner-city areas. Minority populations experience the effects of lead poisoning disproportionately. ^ Lead-based paint abatement is costly. In the United States, residents of about 400,000 homes, occupied by 900,000 young children, lack the means to correct lead-based paint hazards. The magnitude of this problem demands research on affordable methods of hazard control. One method is encapsulation, defined as any covering or coating that acts as a permanent barrier between the lead-based paint surface and the environment. ^ Two encapsulants were tested for reliability and effective life span through an accelerated lifetime experiment that applied stresses exceeding those encountered under normal use conditions. The resulting time-to-failure data were used to extrapolate the failure time under conditions of normal use. Statistical analysis and models of the test data allow forecasting of long-term reliability relative to the 20-year encapsulation requirement. Typical housing material specimens simulating walls and doors coated with lead-based paint were overstressed before encapsulation. A second, un-aged set was also tested. Specimens were monitored after the stress test with a surface chemical testing pad to identify the presence of lead breaking through the encapsulant. ^ Graphical analysis proposed by Shapiro and Meeker and the general log-linear model developed by Cox were used to obtain results. Findings for the 80% reliability time to failure varied, with close to 21 years of life under normal use conditions for encapsulant A. The application of product A on the aged gypsum and aged wood substrates yielded slightly lower times. Encapsulant B had an 80% reliable life of 19.78 years. ^ This study reveals that encapsulation technologies can offer safe and effective control of lead-based paint hazards and may be less expensive than other options. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC are committed to eliminating childhood lead poisoning by 2010. This ambitious target is feasible, provided there is an efficient application of innovative technology, a goal to which this study aims to contribute. ^

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Elementary music and classroom teachers' time -use: A comparison by grade level, time of day, and day of the week

This study investigated time-use of elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers to determine: (1) whether there was a relationship between grade level, time of day, and day of the week and teachers' time-use in teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular, and (2) whether ethnicity, training, and years of experience affect teacher time-use. Sixty-nine music teachers and 55 classroom teachers participated. ^ A MANOVA was used to examine the hypothesized relationship. ANOVA results were significant for time spent teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular. An independent t test revealed a significance difference (t (302) = 5.20, p < .001) between the two groups of teachers. A significant difference was found for teaching, t (302) = 5.20, p < .001: music teachers spent more time actively teaching than did classroom teachers. There was a significant difference for monitoring (t (302) = 13.62, p < .001): classroom teachers allocated more time to monitoring than did music teachers. A significant difference was also found for non-curricular (t (302) = 7.03, p < .001): music teachers spent more time in this category of activities than did classroom teachers. ^ Analyses of the activities subsumed under the major categories indicated significant differences between elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers, overall, in subject matter (p < .001), discussion (p < .05), school-wide activities (p < .001), seatwork (p < .001), giving directions (p < .001), changing activities (p < .001), lunch (p < .05), planning (p < .001) and interruption (p < .001). Analyses of the relationship and ethnicity, training, degree, experience indicated significant difference for main effect, ethnicity (F(2, 116) = 4.22, p < .017). Time-use for black non-Hispanic teachers was higher than time-use for those who were Hispanic and white non-Hispanic. ^ Analyses of time-use by grade showed no increase for either group as grade level increased. A statistically significant Wilks Lambda ( F (1,294) = .917 p < .013) was found for the independent variable day of the week. ANOVA indicated that elementary classroom teachers monitored more on Thursdays and Fridays: music teachers allocated more time to non-curricular activities on Fridays. ^

Elementary music and classroom teachers' time-use: a comparison by grade level, time of day, and day of the week

This study investigated time-use of elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers to determine: (1) whether there was a relationship between grade level, time of day, and day of the week and teachers' time-use in teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular, and (2) whether ethnicity, training, and years of experience affect teacher time-use. Sixty-nine music teachers and 55 classroom teachers participated. A MANOVA was used to examine the hypothesized relationship. ANOVA results were significant for time spent teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular. An independent t test revealed a significance difference (t (302) = 5.20, p Analyses of the activities subsumed under the major categories indicated significant differences between elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers, overall, in subject matter ( p teachers was higher than time-use for those who were Hispanic and white non-Hispanic. Analyses of time-use by grade showed no increase for either group as grade level increased. A statistically significant Wilks Lambda ( F (1,294) = .917 p < .013 ) was found for the independent variable day of the week. ANOVA indicated that elementary classroom teachers monitored more on Thursdays and Fridays: music teachers allocated more time to non-curricular activities on Fridays.

Hearing the Child's Voice: Their Lived Experience in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

Background: More than 200,000 children are admitted annually to Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) in the US. Research has shown young children can provide insight into their hospitalization experiences; child reports rather than parental reports are critical to understanding the child’s experience. Information relating to children’s perceptions while still in the PICU is scarce. Aims: The purpose of this qualitative study was to investigate school age children’s and adolescents’ perceptions of PICU while in the PICU; changes in perceptions after transfer to the General Care Unit (GCU); differences in perceptions of school age children/adolescents and those with more invasive procedures. Methods: Interviews were conducted in PICU within 24-48 hours of admission and 24-48 hours after transfer to GCU. Data on demographics, clinical care and number/types of procedures were obtained. Results: Participants were 7 school age children, 13 adolescents; 10 Hispanic; 13 males. Five overarching themes: Coping Strategies, Environmental Factors, Stressors, Procedures/Medications, and Information. Children emphasized the importance of peer support and visitation; adolescents relied strongly on social media and texting. Parent visits sometimes were more stressful than peer visits. Video games, TV, visitors, and eating were diversional activities. In the PICU, they wanted windows to see outside and interesting things to see on the ceiling above them. Children expressed anticipatory fear of shots and procedures, frustration with lab work, and overwhelming PICU equipment. Number of child responses was higher in PICU (927) than GCU (593); the largest difference was in Environmental Factors. Variations between school age children and adolescents were primarily in Coping Strategies, especially in social support. Number of GCU procedures were the same (8 children) or greater (2 children) than PICU procedures. Discussion: Admission to PICU is a very stressful event. Perceptions from children while still in PICU found information not previously found in the literature. Longitudinal studies to identify children’s perceptions regarding PICU hospitalization and post-discharge outcomes are needed.

Factors surgical team members perceive influence choices of wearing or not wearing personal protective equipment during operative /invasive procedures

Exposure to certain bloodborne pathogens can prematurely end a person’s life. Healthcare workers (HCWs), especially those who are members of surgical teams, are at increased risk of exposure to these pathogens. The proper use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during operative/invasive procedures reduces that risk. Despite this, some HCWs fail to consistently use PPE as required by federal regulation, accrediting agencies, hospital policy, and professional association standards. The purpose of this mixed methods survey study was to (a) examine factors surgical team members perceive influence choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures and (b) determine what would influence consistent use of PPE by surgical team members. Using an ex post facto, non-experimental design, the memberships of five professional associations whose members comprise surgical teams were invited to complete a mixed methods survey study. The primary research question for the study was: What differences (perceptual and demographic) exist between surgical team members that influence their choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures? Four principal differences were found between surgical team members. Functional (i.e., profession or role based) differences exist between the groups. Age and experience (i.e., time in profession) differences exist among members of the groups. Finally, being a nurse anesthetist influences the use of risk assessment to determine the level of PPE to use. Four common themes emerged across all groups informing the two study purposes. Those themes were: availability, education, leadership, and performance. Subsidiary research questions examined the influence of previous accidental exposure to blood or body fluids, federal regulations, hospital policy and procedure, leaders’ attitudes, and patients’ needs on the use of PPE. Each of these was found to strongly influence surgical team members and their use of PPE during operative/invasive procedures. Implications based on the findings affect organizational policy, purchasing and distribution decisions, curriculum design and instruction, leader behavior, and finally partnership with PPE manufacturers. Surgical team members must balance their innate need to care for patients with their need to protect themselves. Results of this study will help team members, leaders, and educators achieve this balance.

Factors Surgical Team Members Perceive Influence Choices of Wearing or not Wearing Personal Protective Equipment During Operative/Invasive Procedures

Exposure to certain bloodborne pathogens can prematurely end a person’s life. Healthcare workers (HCWs), especially those who are members of surgical teams, are at increased risk of exposure to these pathogens. The proper use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during operative/invasive procedures reduces that risk. Despite this, some HCWs fail to consistently use PPE as required by federal regulation, accrediting agencies, hospital policy, and professional association standards. The purpose of this mixed methods survey study was to (a) examine factors surgical team members perceive influence choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures and (b) determine what would influence consistent use of PPE by surgical team members. Using an ex post facto, non-experimental design, the memberships of five professional associations whose members comprise surgical teams were invited to complete a mixed methods survey study. The primary research question for the study was: What differences (perceptual and demographic) exist between surgical team members that influence their choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures? Four principal differences were found between surgical team members. Functional (i.e., profession or role based) differences exist between the groups. Age and experience (i.e., time in profession) differences exist among members of the groups. Finally, being a nurse anesthetist influences the use of risk assessment to determine the level of PPE to use. Four common themes emerged across all groups informing the two study purposes. Those themes were: availability, education, leadership, and performance. Subsidiary research questions examined the influence of previous accidental exposure to blood or body fluids, federal regulations, hospital policy and procedure, leaders’ attitudes, and patients’ needs on the use of PPE. Each of these was found to strongly influence surgical team members and their use of PPE during operative/invasive procedures. Implications based on the findings affect organizational policy, purchasing and distribution decisions, curriculum design and instruction, leader behavior, and finally partnership with PPE manufacturers. Surgical team members must balance their innate need to care for patients with their need to protect themselves. Results of this study will help team members, leaders, and educators achieve this balance.

A methodology to estimate time varying user responses to travel time and travel time reliability in a road pricing environment

Road pricing has emerged as an effective means of managing road traffic demand while simultaneously raising additional revenues to transportation agencies. Research on the factors that govern travel decisions has shown that user preferences may be a function of the demographic characteristics of the individuals and the perceived trip attributes. However, it is not clear what are the actual trip attributes considered in the travel decision- making process, how these attributes are perceived by travelers, and how the set of trip attributes change as a function of the time of the day or from day to day. In this study, operational Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) archives are mined and the aggregated preferences for a priced system are extracted at a fine time aggregation level for an extended number of days. The resulting information is related to corresponding time-varying trip attributes such as travel time, travel time reliability, charged toll, and other parameters. The time-varying user preferences and trip attributes are linked together by means of a binary choice model (Logit) with a linear utility function on trip attributes. The trip attributes weights in the utility function are then dynamically estimated for each time of day by means of an adaptive, limited-memory discrete Kalman filter (ALMF). The relationship between traveler choices and travel time is assessed using different rules to capture the logic that best represents the traveler perception and the effect of the real-time information on the observed preferences. The impact of travel time reliability on traveler choices is investigated considering its multiple definitions. It can be concluded based on the results that using the ALMF algorithm allows a robust estimation of time-varying weights in the utility function at fine time aggregation levels. The high correlations among the trip attributes severely constrain the simultaneous estimation of their weights in the utility function. Despite the data limitations, it is found that, the ALMF algorithm can provide stable estimates of the choice parameters for some periods of the day. Finally, it is found that the daily variation of the user sensitivities for different periods of the day resembles a well-defined normal distribution.

Discrete time models of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate contingent claims

In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

Mitigating congestion by integrating time forecasting and realtime information aggregation in cellular networks

An iterative travel time forecasting scheme, named the Advanced Multilane Prediction based Real-time Fastest Path (AMPRFP) algorithm, is presented in this dissertation. This scheme is derived from the conventional kernel estimator based prediction model by the association of real-time nonlinear impacts that caused by neighboring arcs’ traffic patterns with the historical traffic behaviors. The AMPRFP algorithm is evaluated by prediction of the travel time of congested arcs in the urban area of Jacksonville City. Experiment results illustrate that the proposed scheme is able to significantly reduce both the relative mean error (RME) and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the predicted travel time. To obtain high quality real-time traffic information, which is essential to the performance of the AMPRFP algorithm, a data clean scheme enhanced empirical learning (DCSEEL) algorithm is also introduced. This novel method investigates the correlation between distance and direction in the geometrical map, which is not considered in existing fingerprint localization methods. Specifically, empirical learning methods are applied to minimize the error that exists in the estimated distance. A direction filter is developed to clean joints that have negative influence to the localization accuracy. Synthetic experiments in urban, suburban and rural environments are designed to evaluate the performance of DCSEEL algorithm in determining the cellular probe’s position. The results show that the cellular probe’s localization accuracy can be notably improved by the DCSEEL algorithm. Additionally, a new fast correlation technique for overcoming the time efficiency problem of the existing correlation algorithm based floating car data (FCD) technique is developed. The matching process is transformed into a 1-dimensional (1-D) curve matching problem and the Fast Normalized Cross-Correlation (FNCC) algorithm is introduced to supersede the Pearson product Moment Correlation Co-efficient (PMCC) algorithm in order to achieve the real-time requirement of the FCD method. The fast correlation technique shows a significant improvement in reducing the computational cost without affecting the accuracy of the matching process.

Effects of real -time captioning and sign language interpreting on the learning of college students who are deaf or hard of hearing

College personnel are required to provide accommodations for students who are deaf and hard of hearing (D/HoH), but few empirical studies have been conducted on D/HoH students as they learn under the various accommodation conditions (sign language interpreting, SLI, real-time captioning, RTC, and both). Guided by the experiences of students who are D/HoH at Miami-Dade College (MDC) who requested RTC in addition to SLI as accommodations, the researcher adopted Merten’s transformative-emancipatory theoretical framework that values perceptions and voice of students who are D/HoH. A mixed methods design addressed two research questions: Did student learning differ for each accommodation? What did students experience while learning through accommodations? Participants included 30 students who were D/HoH (60% women). They represented MDC’s majority minority population: 10% White (non-Hispanic), 20% Black (non-Hispanic, including Haitian/Caribbean), 67% Hispanic, and 3% other. Hearing loss, ranged from severe-profound (70%) to mild-moderate (30%). All were able to communicate with American Sign Language: Learning was measured while students who were D/HoH viewed three lectures under three accommodation conditions (SLI, RTC, SLI+RTC). The learning measure was defined as the difference in pre- and post-test scores on tests of the content presented in the lectures. Using repeated measure ANOVA and ANCOVA, confounding variables of fluency in American Sign Language and literacy skills were treated as covariates. Perceptions were obtained through interviews and verbal protocol analysis that were signed, videotaped, transcribed, coded, and examined for common themes and metacognitive strategies. No statistically significant differences were found among the three accommodations on the learning measure. Students who were D/HoH expressed thoughts about five different aspects of their learning while they viewed lectures: (a) comprehending the information, (b) feeling a part of the classroom environment, (c) past experiences with an accommodation, (d) individual preferences for an accommodation, (e) suggestions for improving an accommodation. They exhibited three metacognitive strategies: (a) constructing knowledge, (b) monitoring comprehension, and (c) evaluating information. No patterns were found in the types of metacognitive strategies used for any particular accommodation. The researcher offers recommendations for flexible applications of the standard accommodations used with students who are D/HoH.