Interval and Point Estimators for the Location Parameter of the Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution

The three-parameter lognormal distribution is the extension of the two-parameter lognormal distribution to meet the need of the biological, sociological, and other fields. Numerous research papers have been published for the parameter estimation problems for the lognormal distributions. The inclusion of the location parameter brings in some technical difficulties for the parameter estimation problems, especially for the interval estimation. This paper proposes a method for constructing exact confidence intervals and exact upper confidence limits for the location parameter of the three-parameter lognormal distribution. The point estimation problem is discussed as well. The performance of the point estimator is compared with the maximum likelihood estimator, which is widely used in practice. Simulation result shows that the proposed method is less biased in estimating the location parameter. The large sample size case is discussed in the paper.

Consistency and accuracy in memory: Effects of schema-typicality, retention interval and question-format

This study examined the effect of schemas on consistency and accuracy of memory across interviews, providing theoretical hypotheses explaining why inconsistencies may occur. The design manipulated schema-typicality of items (schema-typical and atypical), question format (free-recall, cued-recall and recognition) and retention interval (immediate/2 week and 2 week/4 week). Consistency, accuracy and experiential quality of memory were measured. ^ All independent variables affected accuracy and experiential quality of memory while question format was the only variable affecting consistency. These results challenge the commonly held notion in the legal arena that consistency is a proxy for accuracy. The study also demonstrates that other variables, such as item-typicality and retention interval have different effects on consistency and accuracy in memory. ^

Capacity-based cost modeling for light rail and bus rapid transit systems

Choosing between Light Rail Transit (LRT) and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is often controversial and not an easy task for transportation planners who are contemplating the upgrade of their public transportation services. These two transit systems provide comparable services for medium-sized cities from the suburban neighborhood to the Central Business District (CBD) and utilize similar right-of-way (ROW) categories. The research is aimed at developing a method to assist transportation planners and decision makers in determining the most feasible system between LRT and BRT. ^ Cost estimation is a major factor when evaluating a transit system. Typically, LRT is more expensive to build and implement than BRT, but has significantly lower Operating and Maintenance (OM) costs than BRT. This dissertation examines the factors impacting capacity and costs, and develops cost models, which are a capacity-based cost estimate for the LRT and BRT systems. Various ROW categories and alignment configurations of the systems are also considered in the developed cost models. Kikuchi's fleet size model (1985) and cost allocation method are used to develop the cost models to estimate the capacity and costs. ^ The comparison between LRT and BRT are complicated due to many possible transportation planning and operation scenarios. In the end, a user-friendly computer interface integrated with the established capacity-based cost models, the LRT and BRT Cost Estimator (LBCostor), was developed by using Microsoft Visual Basic language to facilitate the process and will guide the users throughout the comparison operations. The cost models and the LBCostor can be used to analyze transit volumes, alignments, ROW configurations, number of stops and stations, headway, size of vehicle, and traffic signal timing at the intersections. The planners can make the necessary changes and adjustments depending on their operating practices. ^

The White Ibis and Wood Stork as indicators for restoration of the everglades ecosystem

Large numbers of colonially nesting herons, egrets, ibises, storks and spoonbills were one of the defining natural phenomena of the historical Everglades. Reproduction of these species has been tracked over at least a century, and some clear responses to dramatic anthropogenic hydrological alterations have been established. These include a marked decline in nesting populations of several species, and a movement of colonies away from the over-drained estuarine region. Ponding in a large portion of the freshwater marsh has favored species that hunt by sight in deep water (egrets, cf. 25–45 cm), while tactile feeders (ibises and storks) that depend on concentrated prey in shallow water (5–25 cm) have become proportionately much less common. There has been a marked increase in the interval between exceptionally large breeding aggregations of White Ibises (Eudocimus albus). Loss of short hydroperiod wetlands on the margins of the Everglades have delayed nest initiations 1–2 months by Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) resulting in poor nesting success. These responses are consistent with mechanisms that involve foraging, and the availability and production of prey animals, and each of the relationships is highly dependent on hydrology. Here, we define a group of characteristics about wading bird dynamics (= indicators) that collectively track the specific ecological relationships that supported ibises and storks in the past. We suggest four metrics as indicators of restoration success: timing of nesting by storks, the ratio of nesting ibises + storks to Great Egrets, the proportion of all nests located in the estuarine/freshwater ecotone, and the interval between years with exceptionally large ibis nestings. Each of these metrics has historical (e.g., predrainage) data upon which to base expectations for restoration, and the metrics have little measurement error relative to the large annual variation in numbers of nests. In addition to the strong scientific basis for the use of these indicators, wading birds are also a powerful tool for public communication because they have strong aesthetic appeal, and their ecological relationships with water are intuitively understandable. In the interests of communicating with the public and decision-makers, we integrate these metrics into a single-page annual “traffic-light” report card for wading bird responses. Collectively, we believe these metrics offer an excellent chance of detecting restoration of the ecosystem functions that supported historical wading bird nesting patterns.

Bayesian Estimation of Small Proportions Using Binomial Group Test

Group testing has long been considered as a safe and sensible relative to one-at-a-time testing in applications where the prevalence rate p is small. In this thesis, we applied Bayes approach to estimate p using Beta-type prior distribution. First, we showed two Bayes estimators of p from prior on p derived from two different loss functions. Second, we presented two more Bayes estimators of p from prior on π according to two loss functions. We also displayed credible and HPD interval for p. In addition, we did intensive numerical studies. All results showed that the Bayes estimator was preferred over the usual maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for small p. We also presented the optimal β for different p, m, and k.

An Investigation of Narration Rates for the Reading While Listening Strategy

This study investigated the effects of Reading While Listening narration rates on elementary students' comprehension. Slow, normal and sentence interval narration rates were used. Results showed higher comprehension scores with the slow narration rate for students with low reading levels, and normal rate for high and medium level readers

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Discrete Trial Procedures for Teaching Receptive Discrimination to Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

Research has found that children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) show significant deficits in receptive language skills (Wiesmer, Lord, & Esler, 2010). One of the primary goals of applied behavior analytic intervention is to improve the communication skills of children with autism by teaching receptive discriminations. Both receptive discriminations and receptive language entail matching spoken words with corresponding objects, symbols (e.g., pictures or words), actions, people, and so on (Green, 2001). In order to develop receptive language skills, children with autism often undergo discrimination training within the context of discrete trial training. This training entails teaching the learner how to respond differentially to different stimuli (Green, 2001). It is through discrimination training that individuals with autism learn and develop language (Lovaas, 2003). The present study compares three procedures for teaching receptive discriminations: (1) simple/conditional (Procedure A), (2) conditional only (Procedure B), and (3) conditional discrimination of two target cards (Procedure C). Six children, ranging in age from 2-years-old to 5-years-old, with an autism diagnosis were taught how to receptively discriminate nine sets of stimuli. Results suggest that the extra training steps included in the simple/conditional and conditional only procedures may not be necessary to teach children with autism how to receptively discriminate. For all participants, Procedure C appeared to be the most efficient and effective procedure for teaching young children with autism receptive discriminations. Response maintenance and generalization probes conducted one-month following the end of training indicate that even though Procedure C resulted in less training sessions overall, no one procedure resulted in better maintenance and generalization than the others. In other words, more training sessions, as evident with the simple/conditional and conditional only procedures, did not facilitate participants’ ability to accurately respond or generalize one-month following training. The present study contributes to the literature on what is the most efficient and effective way to teach receptive discrimination during discrete trial training to children with ASD. These findings are critical as research shows that receptive language skills are predictive of better outcomes and adaptive behaviors in the future.

Evaluating the effectiveness of discrete trial procedures for teaching receptive discrimination to children with autism spectrum disorders

Research has found that children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) show significant deficits in receptive language skills (Wiesmer, Lord, & Esler, 2010). One of the primary goals of applied behavior analytic intervention is to improve the communication skills of children with autism by teaching receptive discriminations. Both receptive discriminations and receptive language entail matching spoken words with corresponding objects, symbols (e.g., pictures or words), actions, people, and so on (Green, 2001). In order to develop receptive language skills, children with autism often undergo discrimination training within the context of discrete trial training. This training entails teaching the learner how to respond differentially to different stimuli (Green, 2001). It is through discrimination training that individuals with autism learn and develop language (Lovaas, 2003). The present study compares three procedures for teaching receptive discriminations: (1) simple/conditional (Procedure A), (2) conditional only (Procedure B), and (3) conditional discrimination of two target cards (Procedure C). Six children, ranging in age from 2-years-old to 5-years-old, with an autism diagnosis were taught how to receptively discriminate nine sets of stimuli. Results suggest that the extra training steps included in the simple/conditional and conditional only procedures may not be necessary to teach children with autism how to receptively discriminate. For all participants, Procedure C appeared to be the most efficient and effective procedure for teaching young children with autism receptive discriminations. Response maintenance and generalization probes conducted one-month following the end of training indicate that even though Procedure C resulted in less training sessions overall, no one procedure resulted in better maintenance and generalization than the others. In other words, more training sessions, as evident with the simple/conditional and conditional only procedures, did not facilitate participants’ ability to accurately respond or generalize one-month following training. The present study contributes to the literature on what is the most efficient and effective way to teach receptive discrimination during discrete trial training to children with ASD. These findings are critical as research shows that receptive language skills are predictive of better outcomes and adaptive behaviors in the future. ^

High-resolution cyclostratigraphy of the Cenomanian-Turonian interval: Paleoceanographic implications, a comparison between deep sea drilling project site 386 and 144

The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which oceanic anoxic events (OAE's) are recorded in deep-water deposits of the former western Tethyan Sea, by investigating the Cenomanian-Turonian time interval characterized by the worldwide OAE 2 event. The study improved our knowledge of the possible controlling mechanisms that triggered this event at these sites, and furthered our understanding of this global phenomenon. This was examined by high-resolution, multi-proxy analyses of sediments at DSDP Sites 386 and 144, including sedimentology, scanning electron microscopy, stable isotopes, bulk and clay mineralogy, major and trace element geochemistry, biomarkers, and paleontological data. ^ The results provide a better stratigraphic resolution for the Cenomanian-Turonian, which allowed for more precise determination of chronologic boundaries, sedimentation rates at DSDP Site 386, and a more accurate calculation of the frequency of the cycles recorded in the sequence, which fall predominantly within the precession (∼23 kyr) and short eccentricity (∼100 kyr) ranges. The combined proxies allow assessment of the correlation of δ13Corg, and major and trace elements with the predominance of cyanobacteria. These organisms were the main producers of the organic matter during the dysoxic and euxinic conditions of OAE 2 at DSDP Site 386. A huge amount of microcrystalline quartz of eolian origin is also associated with OAE 2. The geochemical proxies further provide evidence that OAE 2 was linked to increased volcanism outside the deep water of the proto-Atlantic Ocean. The clays in the Turonian sediments are terrigenous and derived predominantly from eolian transport. Comparing DSDP Site 386 and 144 with stratotype sections, the δ13C org and TOC data indicate that OAE 2 seems diachronous throughout the proto-Atlantic Ocean. ^ This study concludes that the development of anoxic conditions in the deep water of the Atlantic during the latest Cenomanian-Turonian resulted from a combination of factors related to local oceanic setting and mitigated by global tectonism and climate. The data provide a more comprehensive view of the interacting factors that led to sustained high productivity of the cyanobacteria and photosynthetic protists that produced organic-carbon-rich deposits in the world's oceans. ^

Improved estimation of postmortem interval with Cardiac Troponin T and improved analytical methods

Accurate knowledge of the time since death, or postmortem interval (PMI), has enormous legal, criminological, and psychological impact. In this study, an investigation was made to determine whether the relationship between the degradation of the human cardiac structure protein Cardiac Troponin T and PMI could be used as an indicator of time since death, thus providing a rapid, high resolution, sensitive, and automated methodology for the determination of PMI. ^ The use of Cardiac Troponin T (cTnT), a protein found in heart tissue, as a selective marker for cardiac muscle damage has shown great promise in the determination of PMI. An optimized conventional immunoassay method was developed to quantify intact and fragmented cTnT. A small sample of cardiac tissue, which is less affected than other tissues by external factors, was taken, homogenized, extracted with magnetic microparticles, separated by SDS-PAGE, and visualized with Western blot by probing with monoclonal antibody against cTnT. This step was followed by labeling and available scanners. This conventional immunoassay provides a proper detection and quantitation of cTnT protein in cardiac tissue as a complex matrix; however, this method does not provide the analyst with immediate results. Therefore, a competitive separation method using capillary electrophoresis with laser-induced fluorescence (CE-LIF) was developed to study the interaction between human cTnT protein and monoclonal anti-TroponinT antibody. ^ Analysis of the results revealed a linear relationship between the percent of degraded cTnT and the log of the PMI, indicating that intact cTnT could be detected in human heart tissue up to 10 days postmortem at room temperature and beyond two weeks at 4C. The data presented demonstrates that this technique can provide an extended time range during which PMI can be more accurately estimated as compared to currently used methods. The data demonstrates that this technique represents a major advance in time of death determination through a fast and reliable, semi-quantitative measurement of a biochemical marker from an organ protected from outside factors. ^

An autoregressive conditional filtering process to remove intraday seasonal volatility and its application to testing the noisy rational expectations model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.