A methodological framework for modeling pavement maintenance costs for projects with performance-based contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

A Methodological Framework for Modeling Pavement Maintenance Costs for Projects with Performance-based Contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Directionality based preventive link maintenance scheme for mobile ad hoc networks

The purpose of this study was to design a preventive scheme using directional antennas to improve the performance of mobile ad hoc networks. In this dissertation, a novel Directionality based Preventive Link Maintenance (DPLM) Scheme is proposed to characterize the performance gain [JaY06a, JaY06b, JCY06] by extending the life of link. In order to maintain the link and take preventive action, signal strength of data packets is measured. Moreover, location information or angle of arrival information is collected during communication and saved in the table. When measured signal strength is below orientation threshold , an orientation warning is generated towards the previous hop node. Once orientation warning is received by previous hop (adjacent) node, it verifies the correctness of orientation warning with few hello pings and initiates high quality directional link (a link above the threshold) and immediately switches to it, avoiding a link break altogether. The location information is utilized to create a directional link by orienting neighboring nodes antennas towards each other. We call this operation an orientation handoff, which is similar to soft-handoff in cellular networks. ^ Signal strength is the indicating factor, which represents the health of the link and helps to predict the link failure. In other words, link breakage happens due to node movement and subsequently reducing signal strength of receiving packets. DPLM scheme helps ad hoc networks to avoid or postpone costly operation of route rediscovery in on-demand routing protocols by taking above-mentioned preventive action. ^ This dissertation advocates close but simple collaboration between the routing, medium access control and physical layers. In order to extend the link, the Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) and IEEE 802.11 MAC protocols were modified to use the ability of directional antennas to transmit over longer distance. A directional antenna module is implemented in OPNET simulator with two separate modes of operations: omnidirectional and directional. The antenna module has been incorporated in wireless node model and simulations are performed to characterize the performance improvement of mobile ad hoc networks. Extensive simulations have shown that without affecting the behavior of the routing protocol noticeably, aggregate throughput, packet delivery ratio, end-to-end delay (latency), routing overhead, number of data packets dropped, and number of path breaks are improved considerably. We have done the analysis of the results in different scenarios to evaluate that the use of directional antennas with proposed DPLM scheme has been found promising to improve the performance of mobile ad hoc networks. ^

Structural Health Monitoring using Index Based Reasoning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) may develop cracks, erosion, delamination or other damages due to aging, fatigue or extreme loads. Identifying these damages is critical for the safe and reliable operation of the systems. ^ Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is capable of determining the conditions of systems automatically and continually through processing and interpreting the data collected from a network of sensors embedded into the systems. With the desired awareness of the systems’ health conditions, SHM can greatly reduce operational cost and speed up maintenance processes. ^ The purpose of this study is to develop an effective, low-cost, flexible and fault tolerant structural health monitoring system. The proposed Index Based Reasoning (IBR) system started as a simple look-up-table based diagnostic system. Later, Fast Fourier Transformation analysis and neural network diagnosis with self-learning capabilities were added. The current version is capable of classifying different health conditions with the learned characteristic patterns, after training with the sensory data acquired from the operating system under different status. ^ The proposed IBR systems are hierarchy and distributed networks deployed into systems to monitor their health conditions. Each IBR node processes the sensory data to extract the features of the signal. Classifying tools are then used to evaluate the local conditions with health index (HI) values. The HI values will be carried to other IBR nodes in the next level of the structured network. The overall health condition of the system can be obtained by evaluating all the local health conditions. ^ The performance of IBR systems has been evaluated by both simulation and experimental studies. The IBR system has been proven successful on simulated cases of a turbojet engine, a high displacement actuator, and a quad rotor helicopter. For its application on experimental data of a four rotor helicopter, IBR also performed acceptably accurate. The proposed IBR system is a perfect fit for the low-cost UAVs to be the onboard structural health management system. It can also be a backup system for aircraft and advanced Space Utility Vehicles. ^

A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

A reliability centered maintenance decision system for a discrete part manufacturing facility

This thesis develops and validates the framework of a specialized maintenance decision support system for a discrete part manufacturing facility. Its construction utilizes a modular approach based on the fundamental philosophy of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM). The proposed architecture uniquely integrates System Decomposition, System Evaluation, Failure Analysis, Logic Tree Analysis, and Maintenance Planning modules. It presents an ideal solution to the unique maintenance inadequacies of modern discrete part manufacturing systems. Well established techniques are incorporated as building blocks of the system's modules. These include Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Logic Tree Analysis (LTA), Theory of Constraints (TOC), and an Expert System (ES). A Maintenance Information System (MIS) performs the system's support functions. Validation was performed by field testing of the system at a Miami based manufacturing facility. Such a maintenance support system potentially reduces downtime losses and contributes to higher product quality output. Ultimately improved profitability is the final outcome. ^

The exploration enhancement workshop: An exploration-based approach to facilitating identity formation in young adults

This dissertation reports an investigation of the utility of two intervention programs to facilitate identity formation by way of exploration, one designed from an explicitly self-construction point of view and the other designed from an explicitly self-discovery point of view. The self-construction program was implemented using cognitive skills and orientations derived from Berzonsky (1989), Grotevant (1987), and Kurtines (1999). The self-discovery program was implemented using affective insight development strategies derived from Csikszentmihalyi (1990), Maslow (1968), and Waterman (1990). Three sets of measures were used: (a) cognitive identity measures, (b) affective identity measures, and (c) overall identity measures. Ninety undergraduates from Florida International University completed the intervention. Participants were assigned to one of three intervention conditions (Cognitive, Affective, and Control) and were pretested and posttested on cognitive, affective, and overall identity measures. Intervention strategies were introduced and discussed in the context of specific goals and choices that participants brought to group. Intervention results were then analyzed in terms of the effectiveness of the intervention conditions in promoting their respective developmental domains. The intervention was effective in promoting identity development in comparison to the control condition, with the cognitive condition facilitating cognitive competence and the affective condition facilitating affective insight. Results are discussed in the context of the constructivist and discovery perspectives, as well as in light of the broadened view of exploration offered in this paper. ^

Optimization of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation programming using shuffled complex evolution algorithm

The major barrier to practical optimization of pavement preservation programming has always been that for formulations where the identity of individual projects is preserved, the solution space grows exponentially with the problem size to an extent where it can become unmanageable by the traditional analytical optimization techniques within reasonable limit. This has been attributed to the problem of combinatorial explosion that is, exponential growth of the number of combinations. The relatively large number of constraints often presents in a real-life pavement preservation programming problems and the trade-off considerations required between preventive maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction, present yet another factor that contributes to the solution complexity. In this research study, a new integrated multi-year optimization procedure was developed to solve network level pavement preservation programming problems, through cost-effectiveness based evolutionary programming analysis, using the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm.^ A case study problem was analyzed to illustrate the robustness and consistency of the SCE technique in solving network level pavement preservation problems. The output from this program is a list of maintenance and rehabilitation treatment (M&R) strategies for each identified segment of the network in each programming year, and the impact on the overall performance of the network, in terms of the performance levels of the recommended optimal M&R strategy. ^ The results show that the SCE is very efficient and consistent in the simultaneous consideration of the trade-off between various pavement preservation strategies, while preserving the identity of the individual network segments. The flexibility of the technique is also demonstrated, in the sense that, by suitably coding the problem parameters, it can be used to solve several forms of pavement management programming problems. It is recommended that for large networks, some sort of decomposition technique should be applied to aggregate sections, which exhibit similar performance characteristics into links, such that whatever M&R alternative is recommended for a link can be applied to all the sections connected to it. In this way the problem size, and hence the solution time, can be greatly reduced to a more manageable solution space. ^ The study concludes that the robust search characteristics of SCE are well suited for solving the combinatorial problems in long-term network level pavement M&R programming and provides a rich area for future research. ^

The maintenance of tracking: The role of organizational culture

Modern comprehensive high schools do not formally track students into different programs, but schools offer different curricular sequences with important and stratified consequences for students' post-secondary education. This study used qualitative methodology to examine how schools' organizational cultures influence the maintenance of tracking practices in four comprehensive high schools in Miami. The methodology included long-term participant observation in each of the four schools, unstructured and semi-structured interviews and the collection of written documents produced by the district. A framework based on the concepts of environment, mission, information, strategy, and leadership was used to analyze the data. ^ It was found that school cultures shared deeply held beliefs that regard ability as a fixed trait. This prevented schools from providing access to information about the consequences of course selection to the majority of the student body, with the exception of those students defined as “college bound.” State and County level policies that reward achievement in standardized tests combined with school overcrowding, resulted in organizational cultures that favored the adoption of strategies stressing efficiency, as opposed to a challenging education for all students. Only one of the four schools in the study had a policy requiring students to attempt courses that were more challenging. The practice was resented by both teachers and counselors, since it was perceived as interfering with other goals of the institution, i.e.: graduating students in four years. ^ The culture of the schools stressed college as the only legitimate post-secondary option; consequently, the majority of counselors did not encourage students—even those already defined as “not college material”—to consider other alternatives, such as vocational education. The elimination of formal tracks in these comprehensive high schools resulted in the school culture lacking a clear mission in regards to non-college bound students. Findings are discussed in relation to current theoretical explanations for educational policy and equality of opportunity. ^

Boundary maintenance in Qatar: Interpretation of domination, segregation and subordination

This study explores the interaction of expatriates in Qatar and their perception of their subordination. The study design included participant observation in an all female University and University housing as well as interviews with Qatari government agencies and ministries, expatriate embassies and expatriates. Semi-structured interviews were conducted across seven expatriate groups: domestic workers, unskilled laborers, semiskilled, professionals, housewives, second-generation expatriates with host country other than Qatar, second-generation expatriates with host country Qatar, and Gulf Cooperation Council citizens. Forty-two subjects completed the interview schedule while 87 interviews were incomplete. ^ Physical control of expatriates occurs through the Gulf practice of sponsorship (The Kafeel System), and local cultural and Islamic related controls intertwined with the Arab Code of honor. Interviews and observations revealed rankings of Arabs and foreigners which emphasize Qatari superiority such as tribal identity, moral ranking of female groups by dress, legal protection and power, sexual consideration and desexualization and salaries and job opportunities based on nationality and ethnicity. Individuals who desire to transcend boundaries into the Qatari realm through citizenship or marriage view Qataris as possessing the “image of the unlimited good” and have acquired Qatari social and cultural capital. Members from all expatriate groups engaged in various forms of resistance to labor and gender domination which ranged from forms of “exit,” expressing a hidden transcript in the privacy of their own group, disguised resistance in public, and occasionally, direct confrontation with the Qatari. Although the legal arena created the appearance that worker's needs were being addressed, laborers engaged in forms of “exit” to escape their oppression. Omani students in the hostel disguised their resistance by spreading gossip, nick-naming homosexual Qatari students at the University, acting out a skit depicting their exclusion from Qatari privilege, spreading rumors of impending freedom, and singing songs of despair in the courtyard. Other sites of resistance were expatriate embassies, the road, the newspaper and technology. This study emphasizes that blaming oppression of the expatriate worker on globalization is a simplistic view of oppression in the Gulf, and ignores complex issues within Qatari society and other Gulf States. Sponsorship, servitude, and gender segregation intersect in Qatar to create a system of segregation and domination of expatriates. ^

Capacity-based cost modeling for light rail and bus rapid transit systems

Choosing between Light Rail Transit (LRT) and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is often controversial and not an easy task for transportation planners who are contemplating the upgrade of their public transportation services. These two transit systems provide comparable services for medium-sized cities from the suburban neighborhood to the Central Business District (CBD) and utilize similar right-of-way (ROW) categories. The research is aimed at developing a method to assist transportation planners and decision makers in determining the most feasible system between LRT and BRT. ^ Cost estimation is a major factor when evaluating a transit system. Typically, LRT is more expensive to build and implement than BRT, but has significantly lower Operating and Maintenance (OM) costs than BRT. This dissertation examines the factors impacting capacity and costs, and develops cost models, which are a capacity-based cost estimate for the LRT and BRT systems. Various ROW categories and alignment configurations of the systems are also considered in the developed cost models. Kikuchi's fleet size model (1985) and cost allocation method are used to develop the cost models to estimate the capacity and costs. ^ The comparison between LRT and BRT are complicated due to many possible transportation planning and operation scenarios. In the end, a user-friendly computer interface integrated with the established capacity-based cost models, the LRT and BRT Cost Estimator (LBCostor), was developed by using Microsoft Visual Basic language to facilitate the process and will guide the users throughout the comparison operations. The cost models and the LBCostor can be used to analyze transit volumes, alignments, ROW configurations, number of stops and stations, headway, size of vehicle, and traffic signal timing at the intersections. The planners can make the necessary changes and adjustments depending on their operating practices. ^

A computer based approach to improve the dietary and physical activity patterns of a diverse group of adolescents

Diet and physical activity patterns have been implicated as major factors in the increasing prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity. It is estimated that between 16 and 33 percent of children and adolescents in the United States are overweight (CDC, 2000). Moreover, the CDC estimates that less than 50% of adolescents are physically active on a regular basis (CDC, 2003). Interventions must be focused to modify these behaviors. Facilitating the understanding of proper nutrition and need for physical activity among adolescents is the first step in preventing overweight and obesity and delaying the development of chronic diseases later in life (Dwyer, 2000). The purpose of this study was to compare the outcomes of students receiving one of two forms of education (both emphasizing diet and physical activity), to determine whether a computer based intervention (CBI) program using an interactive, animated CD-ROM would elicit a greater behavior change in comparison to a traditional didactic intervention (TDI) program. A convenience sample of 254 high school students aged 14-19 participated in the 6-month program. A pre-test post-test design was used, with follow-up measures taken at three months post-intervention. ^ No change was noted in total fat, saturated fat, fruit/vegetables, or fiber intake for any of the groups. There was also no change in perceived self-efficacy or perceived social support. Results did, however, indicate an increase in nutrition knowledge for both intervention groups (p<0.001). In addition, the CBI group demonstrated more positive and sustained behavior changes throughout the course of the study. These changes included a decrease in BMI (ppre/post<0.001, ppost/follow-up<0.001), number of meals skipped (ppre/post<0.001), and soda consumption (ppre/post=0.003, ppost/follow-up=0.03) and an increase in nutrition knowledge (ppre/post<0.001, ppre/follow-up <0.001), physical activity (ppre/post<0.05, p pre/follow-up<0.01), frequency of label reading (ppre/follow-up <0.0l) and in dairy consumption (ppre/post=0.03). The TDI group did show positive gains in some areas post intervention, however a return to baseline behavior was shown at follow-up. Findings of this study suggest that compared to traditional didactic teaching, computer-based nutrition and health education has greater potential to elicit change in knowledge and behavior as well as promote maintenance of the behavior change over time. ^

Social network structure as a critical success condition for open source software project communities

In recent years, a surprising new phenomenon has emerged in which globally-distributed online communities collaborate to create useful and sophisticated computer software. These open source software groups are comprised of generally unaffiliated individuals and organizations who work in a seemingly chaotic fashion and who participate on a voluntary basis without direct financial incentive. ^ The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the social network structure of these intriguing groups and their level of output and activity, where social network structure is defined as (1) closure or connectedness within the group, (2) bridging ties which extend outside of the group, and (3) leader centrality within the group. Based on well-tested theories of social capital and centrality in teams, propositions were formulated which suggest that social network structures associated with successful open source software project communities will exhibit high levels of bridging and moderate levels of closure and leader centrality. ^ The research setting was the SourceForge hosting organization and a study population of 143 project communities was identified. Independent variables included measures of closure and leader centrality defined over conversational ties, along with measures of bridging defined over membership ties. Dependent variables included source code commits and software releases for community output, and software downloads and project site page views for community activity. A cross-sectional study design was used and archival data were extracted and aggregated for the two-year period following the first release of project software. The resulting compiled variables were analyzed using multiple linear and quadratic regressions, controlling for group size and conversational volume. ^ Contrary to theory-based expectations, the surprising results showed that successful project groups exhibited low levels of closure and that the levels of bridging and leader centrality were not important factors of success. These findings suggest that the creation and use of open source software may represent a fundamentally new socio-technical development process which disrupts the team paradigm and which triggers the need for building new theories of collaborative development. These new theories could point towards the broader application of open source methods for the creation of knowledge-based products other than software. ^

Risk based post closure care analysis for Florida landfills

Subtitle D of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) requires a post closure period of 30 years for non hazardous wastes in landfills. Post closure care (PCC) activities under Subtitle D include leachate collection and treatment, groundwater monitoring, inspection and maintenance of the final cover, and monitoring to ensure that landfill gas does not migrate off site or into on site buildings. The decision to reduce PCC duration requires exploration of a performance based methodology to Florida landfills. PCC should be based on whether the landfill is a threat to human health or the environment. Historically no risk based procedure has been available to establish an early end to PCC. Landfill stability depends on a number of factors that include variables that relate to operations both before and after the closure of a landfill cell. Therefore, PCC decisions should be based on location specific factors, operational factors, design factors, post closure performance, end use, and risk analysis. The question of appropriate PCC period for Florida’s landfills requires in depth case studies focusing on the analysis of the performance data from closed landfills in Florida. Based on data availability, Davie Landfill was identified as case study site for a case by case analysis of landfill stability. The performance based PCC decision system developed by Geosyntec Consultants was used for the assessment of site conditions to project PCC needs. The available data for leachate and gas quantity and quality, ground water quality, and cap conditions were evaluated. The quality and quantity data for leachate and gas were analyzed to project the levels of pollutants in leachate and groundwater in reference to maximum contaminant level (MCL). In addition, the projected amount of gas quantity was estimated. A set of contaminants (including metals and organics) were identified as contaminants detected in groundwater for health risk assessment. These contaminants were selected based on their detection frequency and levels in leachate and ground water; and their historical and projected trends. During the evaluations a range of discrepancies and problems that related to the collection and documentation were encountered and possible solutions made. Based on the results of PCC performance integrated with risk assessment, projection of future PCC monitoring needs and sustainable waste management options were identified. According to these results, landfill gas monitoring can be terminated, leachate and groundwater monitoring for parameters above MCL and surveying of the cap integrity should be continued. The parameters which cause longer monitoring periods can be eliminated for the future sustainable landfills. As a conclusion, 30 year PCC period can be reduced for some of the landfill components based on their potential impacts to human health and environment (HH&E).

Carbon isotopic composition of cypress trees from South Florida and changing hydrologic condition

δ13C values were determined from cypresstree rings from two different study areas in SouthFlorida. One site is located in the Southeastern Everglades Marsh, where pond cypress (Taxodium ascendens) was sampled from tree islands (annual tree rings from 1970 to 2000). Bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) trees were sampled at the other site, located along the Loxahatchee River in a coastal wetland (decadal tree rings from 1830 to 1990). The isotopic time series from both sites display different, location-specific information. The pond cypressisotopic time series has a positive correlation with the total amount of annual precipitation, while the bald cypress data from the Loxahatchee River study area had two different records dependent on the level of saltwater stress. In general, for terrestrial trees growing in a temperate environment, water stress causes an increase in water-use efficiency (WUE) resulting in a relative 13C enrichment. Yet, trees growing in wetland settings in some cases do not respond in the same manner. We propose a conceptual model based on changes in carbon assimilation and isotopic fractionation as controlled by differences in stomatal resistance (water stress) and mesophyll resistance (biochemical and nutrient related) to explain the isotopic records from both sites. With further work and a longer time series, our approach may be tested, and used to reconstruct change in hydroperiods further back in time, and potentially provide a baseline for wetland restoration.