A methodological framework for modeling pavement maintenance costs for projects with performance-based contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Physics-based modeling of power system components for the evaluation of low-frequency radiated electromagnetic fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system's EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter's components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

A Methodological Framework for Modeling Pavement Maintenance Costs for Projects with Performance-based Contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Physics-Based Modeling of Power System Components for the Evaluation of Low-Frequency Radiated Electromagnetic Fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system’s EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter’s components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

Structural Health Monitoring using Index Based Reasoning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) may develop cracks, erosion, delamination or other damages due to aging, fatigue or extreme loads. Identifying these damages is critical for the safe and reliable operation of the systems. ^ Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is capable of determining the conditions of systems automatically and continually through processing and interpreting the data collected from a network of sensors embedded into the systems. With the desired awareness of the systems’ health conditions, SHM can greatly reduce operational cost and speed up maintenance processes. ^ The purpose of this study is to develop an effective, low-cost, flexible and fault tolerant structural health monitoring system. The proposed Index Based Reasoning (IBR) system started as a simple look-up-table based diagnostic system. Later, Fast Fourier Transformation analysis and neural network diagnosis with self-learning capabilities were added. The current version is capable of classifying different health conditions with the learned characteristic patterns, after training with the sensory data acquired from the operating system under different status. ^ The proposed IBR systems are hierarchy and distributed networks deployed into systems to monitor their health conditions. Each IBR node processes the sensory data to extract the features of the signal. Classifying tools are then used to evaluate the local conditions with health index (HI) values. The HI values will be carried to other IBR nodes in the next level of the structured network. The overall health condition of the system can be obtained by evaluating all the local health conditions. ^ The performance of IBR systems has been evaluated by both simulation and experimental studies. The IBR system has been proven successful on simulated cases of a turbojet engine, a high displacement actuator, and a quad rotor helicopter. For its application on experimental data of a four rotor helicopter, IBR also performed acceptably accurate. The proposed IBR system is a perfect fit for the low-cost UAVs to be the onboard structural health management system. It can also be a backup system for aircraft and advanced Space Utility Vehicles. ^

Monitoring of Tree Island Condition in the Southern Everglades: Annual Report 2011

Tree islands, a prominent feature in both the marl prairie and ridge and slough landscapes of the Everglades, are sensitive to large-scale restoration actions associated with the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) authorized by the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) 2000 to restore the south Florida ecosystem. More specifically, changes in hydrologic regimes at both local and landscape scales are likely to affect the internal water economy of islands, which in turn will influence plant community structure and function. To strengthen our ability to assess the “performance” of tree island ecosystems and predict how these hydrologic alterations would translate into ecosystem response, an improved understating of reference conditions of vegetation structure and function, and their responses to major stressors is important. In this regard, a study of vegetation structure and composition in relation to associated physical and biological processes was initiated in 2005 with initial funding from Everglades National Park and South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). The study continued through 2011 with funding from US Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE) (Cooperative Agreement # W912HZ-09-2-0019 Modification No.: P00001).

Monitoring of Tree Island Condition in the Southern Everglades: Hydrologic Driven Decadal Changes in Tree Island Woody Vegetation Structure and Composition: 2012 Annual Report

This report examines the interaction between hydrology and vegetation over a 10-year period, between 2001/02 and 2012 within six permanent tree island plots located on three tree islands, two plots each per tree island, established in 2001/02, along a hydrologic and productivity gradient. We hypothesize that: (H1) hydrologic differences within plots between census dates will result in marked differences in a) tree and sapling densities, b) tree basal area, and c) forest structure, i.e., canopy volume and height, and (H2) tree island growth, development, and succession is dependent on hydrologic fluxes, particularly during periods of prolonged droughts or below average hydroperiods.

A reliability centered maintenance decision system for a discrete part manufacturing facility

This thesis develops and validates the framework of a specialized maintenance decision support system for a discrete part manufacturing facility. Its construction utilizes a modular approach based on the fundamental philosophy of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM). The proposed architecture uniquely integrates System Decomposition, System Evaluation, Failure Analysis, Logic Tree Analysis, and Maintenance Planning modules. It presents an ideal solution to the unique maintenance inadequacies of modern discrete part manufacturing systems. Well established techniques are incorporated as building blocks of the system's modules. These include Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Logic Tree Analysis (LTA), Theory of Constraints (TOC), and an Expert System (ES). A Maintenance Information System (MIS) performs the system's support functions. Validation was performed by field testing of the system at a Miami based manufacturing facility. Such a maintenance support system potentially reduces downtime losses and contributes to higher product quality output. Ultimately improved profitability is the final outcome. ^

Social network structure as a critical success condition for open source software project communities

In recent years, a surprising new phenomenon has emerged in which globally-distributed online communities collaborate to create useful and sophisticated computer software. These open source software groups are comprised of generally unaffiliated individuals and organizations who work in a seemingly chaotic fashion and who participate on a voluntary basis without direct financial incentive. ^ The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the social network structure of these intriguing groups and their level of output and activity, where social network structure is defined as (1) closure or connectedness within the group, (2) bridging ties which extend outside of the group, and (3) leader centrality within the group. Based on well-tested theories of social capital and centrality in teams, propositions were formulated which suggest that social network structures associated with successful open source software project communities will exhibit high levels of bridging and moderate levels of closure and leader centrality. ^ The research setting was the SourceForge hosting organization and a study population of 143 project communities was identified. Independent variables included measures of closure and leader centrality defined over conversational ties, along with measures of bridging defined over membership ties. Dependent variables included source code commits and software releases for community output, and software downloads and project site page views for community activity. A cross-sectional study design was used and archival data were extracted and aggregated for the two-year period following the first release of project software. The resulting compiled variables were analyzed using multiple linear and quadratic regressions, controlling for group size and conversational volume. ^ Contrary to theory-based expectations, the surprising results showed that successful project groups exhibited low levels of closure and that the levels of bridging and leader centrality were not important factors of success. These findings suggest that the creation and use of open source software may represent a fundamentally new socio-technical development process which disrupts the team paradigm and which triggers the need for building new theories of collaborative development. These new theories could point towards the broader application of open source methods for the creation of knowledge-based products other than software. ^

Inspection of parts with complex geometry and welds with structural health monitoring techniques

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems were developed to evaluate the integrity of a system during operation, and to quickly identify the maintenance problems. They will be used in future aerospace vehicles to improve safety, reduce cost and minimize the maintenance time of a system. Many SHM systems were already developed to evaluate the integrity of plates and used in marine structures. Their implementation in manufacturing processes is still expected. The application of SHM methods for complex geometries and welds are two important challenges in this area of research. This research work started by studying the characteristics of piezoelectric actuators, and a small energy harvester was designed. The output voltages at different frequencies of vibration were acquired to determine the nonlinear characteristics of the piezoelectric stripe actuators. The frequency response was evaluated experimentally. AA battery size energy harvesting devices were developed by using these actuators. When the round and square cross section devices were excited at 50 Hz frequency, they generated 16 V and 25 V respectively. The Surface Response to Excitation (SuRE) and Lamb wave methods were used to estimate the condition of parts with complex geometries. Cutting tools and welded plates were considered. Both approaches used piezoelectric elements that were attached to the surfaces of considered parts. The variation of the magnitude of the frequency response was evaluated when the SuRE method was used. The sum of the square of the differences was calculated. The envelope of the received signal was used for the analysis of wave propagation. Bi-orthogonal wavelet (Binlet) analysis was also used for the evaluation of the data obtained during Lamb wave technique. Both the Lamb wave and SuRE approaches along with the three methods for data analysis worked effectively to detect increasing tool wear. Similarly, they detected defects on the plate, on the weld, and on a separate plate without any sensor as long as it was welded to the test plate.

Carbon isotopic composition of cypress trees from South Florida and changing hydrologic condition

δ13C values were determined from cypresstree rings from two different study areas in SouthFlorida. One site is located in the Southeastern Everglades Marsh, where pond cypress (Taxodium ascendens) was sampled from tree islands (annual tree rings from 1970 to 2000). Bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) trees were sampled at the other site, located along the Loxahatchee River in a coastal wetland (decadal tree rings from 1830 to 1990). The isotopic time series from both sites display different, location-specific information. The pond cypressisotopic time series has a positive correlation with the total amount of annual precipitation, while the bald cypress data from the Loxahatchee River study area had two different records dependent on the level of saltwater stress. In general, for terrestrial trees growing in a temperate environment, water stress causes an increase in water-use efficiency (WUE) resulting in a relative 13C enrichment. Yet, trees growing in wetland settings in some cases do not respond in the same manner. We propose a conceptual model based on changes in carbon assimilation and isotopic fractionation as controlled by differences in stomatal resistance (water stress) and mesophyll resistance (biochemical and nutrient related) to explain the isotopic records from both sites. With further work and a longer time series, our approach may be tested, and used to reconstruct change in hydroperiods further back in time, and potentially provide a baseline for wetland restoration.

A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

Social Network Structure as a Critical Success Condition for Open Source Software Project Communities

In recent years, a surprising new phenomenon has emerged in which globally-distributed online communities collaborate to create useful and sophisticated computer software. These open source software groups are comprised of generally unaffiliated individuals and organizations who work in a seemingly chaotic fashion and who participate on a voluntary basis without direct financial incentive. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the social network structure of these intriguing groups and their level of output and activity, where social network structure is defined as 1) closure or connectedness within the group, 2) bridging ties which extend outside of the group, and 3) leader centrality within the group. Based on well-tested theories of social capital and centrality in teams, propositions were formulated which suggest that social network structures associated with successful open source software project communities will exhibit high levels of bridging and moderate levels of closure and leader centrality. The research setting was the SourceForge hosting organization and a study population of 143 project communities was identified. Independent variables included measures of closure and leader centrality defined over conversational ties, along with measures of bridging defined over membership ties. Dependent variables included source code commits and software releases for community output, and software downloads and project site page views for community activity. A cross-sectional study design was used and archival data were extracted and aggregated for the two-year period following the first release of project software. The resulting compiled variables were analyzed using multiple linear and quadratic regressions, controlling for group size and conversational volume. Contrary to theory-based expectations, the surprising results showed that successful project groups exhibited low levels of closure and that the levels of bridging and leader centrality were not important factors of success. These findings suggest that the creation and use of open source software may represent a fundamentally new socio-technical development process which disrupts the team paradigm and which triggers the need for building new theories of collaborative development. These new theories could point towards the broader application of open source methods for the creation of knowledge-based products other than software.