An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

Principal component and second generation wavelet analysis of Treasury yield curve evolution

Prices of U.S. Treasury securities vary over time and across maturities. When the market in Treasurys is sufficiently complete and frictionless, these prices may be modeled by a function time and maturity. A cross-section of this function for time held fixed is called the yield curve; the aggregate of these sections is the evolution of the yield curve. This dissertation studies aspects of this evolution. ^ There are two complementary approaches to the study of yield curve evolution here. The first is principal components analysis; the second is wavelet analysis. In both approaches both the time and maturity variables are discretized. In principal components analysis the vectors of yield curve shifts are viewed as observations of a multivariate normal distribution. The resulting covariance matrix is diagonalized; the resulting eigenvalues and eigenvectors (the principal components) are used to draw inferences about the yield curve evolution. ^ In wavelet analysis, the vectors of shifts are resolved into hierarchies of localized fundamental shifts (wavelets) that leave specified global properties invariant (average change and duration change). The hierarchies relate to the degree of localization with movements restricted to a single maturity at the base and general movements at the apex. Second generation wavelet techniques allow better adaptation of the model to economic observables. Statistically, the wavelet approach is inherently nonparametric while the wavelets themselves are better adapted to describing a complete market. ^ Principal components analysis provides information on the dimension of the yield curve process. While there is no clear demarkation between operative factors and noise, the top six principal components pick up 99% of total interest rate variation 95% of the time. An economically justified basis of this process is hard to find; for example a simple linear model will not suffice for the first principal component and the shape of this component is nonstationary. ^ Wavelet analysis works more directly with yield curve observations than principal components analysis. In fact the complete process from bond data to multiresolution is presented, including the dedicated Perl programs and the details of the portfolio metrics and specially adapted wavelet construction. The result is more robust statistics which provide balance to the more fragile principal components analysis. ^

Regional aspects of Miami crime fiction

This thesis argues that forces of literary regionalism and postmodern culture are behind the explosion of crime fiction being written in and about South Florida by a growing number of resident authors. ^ Research included four methods of investigation: (1) A critical reading of many of the novels that make up the sub-genre. (2) A study of the theories of regionalism, postmodernism and the genre of the crime fiction. (3) Interviews with a number of the authors and a prominent Miami book seller. (4) Sociological studies of Miami in terms of historical events and their cultural significance. ^ Today's South Florida crime fiction authors cast their narratives in the old genre of the detective novel where characters are delineated according to traditional definitions of good and evil. What makes South Florida crime fiction different from traditional detective fiction is its interest in the exotic, postmodern culture and setting of South Florida. There is a unique cultural diversity of the city due to the geographical location of Miami in relationship to Latin America and the Caribbean, and the political forces at work in the region. South Florida's sub-tropical climate, fragile ecosystem, and elements of frontier life in a cosmopolitan city work to support Miami crime fiction. ^

Trading democracy for security? The effects of the international drug war on the quality of democracy in the Dominican Republic, 1996–2008

The purpose of the research is to study the relationship between international drug interdiction policies and domestic politics in fragile democracies, and to demonstrate how international drug control policies and the use of force fit the rhetoric of war, are legitimized by the principles of a just war, but may also cause collateral damage and negative unintended consequences. The method used is a case study of the Dominican Republic. The research has found that international drug control regimes, primarily led by the U.S. and narrowly focused on interdiction, have influenced an increasingly militarized approach to domestic law enforcement in the Dominican Republic. The collateral damage caused by militarized enforcement comes in the form of negative perceptions of citizen security, loss of respect for the rule of law and due process, and low levels of civil society development. The drug war has exposed the need for significant reform of the institutions charged with carrying out enforcement, the police force and the judicial system in particular. The dissertation concludes that the extent of drug trafficking in the Dominican Republic is beyond the scope of domestic reform efforts alone, but that the programs implemented do show some potential for future success. The dissertation also concludes that the framework of warfare is not the most appropriate for the international problems of drug traffic and abuse. A broader, multipronged approach should be considered by world policy makers in order to address all conditions that allow drugs to flourish without infringing upon democratic and civil rights in the process.

Left behind: A farmer's fate in the age of sustainable development

Globalization is eroding the livelihoods of small farmers, a significant and vulnerable class, particularly in the developing world. The cost-price squeeze stemming from trade liberalization places farmers in a race to the bottom that leads to displacement, poverty, and environmental degradation. Scholars and activists have proposed that alternative trade initiatives offer a unique opportunity to reverse this trend by harnessing the power of the markets to reward producers of goods with embedded superior cultural, environmental, and social values. Alternative trade via certification schemes have become a de facto prescription for any location where there is a need to conciliate economic interest with conservation imperatives. Partnerships among commodity production farmers, elite manufacturers and wealthy northern consumers/activists do not necessarily have win-win outcomes. Paradoxically, the partnerships of farmers with external agencies have unexpected results. These partnerships develop into dependent relationships that become unsustainable in the absence of further transfers of capital. The institutions born of these partnerships are fragile. When these fledging institutions fail, farmers are left in the same situation that they were before the partnership, with only minor improvements to show after spending considerable amounts of social and financial capital. I hypothesize that these failures are born out of a belief in a universal understanding of sustainability. A discursive emphasis on consensus, equity and mutual benefit hides the fact that what for consumers it is a matter of choice, for producers is a matter of survival. The growth in consumers’ demand for certified products creates a race for farmers to meet these standards. My findings suggest that this race generates economically perverse effects. First, producers enter into a certification treadmill. Second, the local need for economic sustainability is ignored. Third, commodity based alternative trade schemes increase the exposure of communities to global shocks. I conclude by calling for a careful reassessment of sustainable development projects that promote certification schemes. The designers and implementers of these programs must include farmers’ agenda in the planning of these programs.

An assessment of natural and human disturbance effects on Mexican ecosystems: current trends and research gaps

Mexico harbors more than 10% of the planet’s endemic species. However, the integrity and biodiversity of many ecosystems is experiencing rapid transformation under the influence of a wide array of human and natural disturbances. In order to disentangle the effects of human and natural disturbance regimes at different spatial and temporal scales, we selected six terrestrial (temperate montane forests, montane cloud forests, tropical rain forests, tropical semi-deciduous forests, tropical dry forests, and deserts) and four aquatic (coral reefs, mangrove forests, kelp forests and saline lakes) ecosystems. We used semiquantitative statistical methods to assess (1) the most important agents of disturbance affecting the ecosystems, (2) the vulnerability of each ecosystem to anthropogenic and natural disturbance, and (3) the differences in ecosystem disturbance regimes and their resilience. Our analysis indicates a significant variation in ecological responses, recovery capacity, and resilience among ecosystems. The constant and widespread presence of human impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is reflected either in reduced area coverage for most systems, or reduced productivity and biodiversity, particularly in the case of fragile ecosystems (e.g., rain forests, coral reefs). In all cases, the interaction between historical human impacts and episodic high intensity natural disturbance (e.g., hurricanes, fires) has triggered a reduction in species diversity and induced significant changes in habitat distribution or species dominance. The lack of monitoring programs assessing before/after effects of major disturbances in Mexico is one of the major limitations to quantifying the commonalities and differences of disturbance effects on ecosystem properties.

A Conceptual Framework to Develop Long-Term Ecological Research and Management Objectives in the Wider Caribbean Region

The Caribbean Sea and its watersheds show signs of environmental degradation. These fragile coastal ecosystems are susceptible to environmental impacts, in part because of their oligotrophic conditions and their critical support of economic development. Tourism is one of the major sources of income in the Caribbean, making the region one of the most ecotourism dependent in the world. Yet there are few explicit, long-term, comprehensive studies describing the structure and function of Caribbean ecosystems. We propose a conceptual framework using the environmental signature hypothesis of tropical coastal settings to develop a series of research questions for the reef–sea-grass–wetland seascape. We applied this approach across 13 sites throughout the region, including ecosystems in a variety of coastal settings with different vulnerabilities to environmental impacts. This approach follows the strategy developed by the Long Term Ecological Research program of the National Science Foundation to establish ecological research questions best studied over decades and large spatial areas.

Hydro-physical characterization of media used in agricultural systems to develop the best management practices for operation of an environmentally sustainable agricultural enterprise

Florida is the second leading horticulture state in the United States with a total annual industry sale of over $12 Billion. Due to its competitive nature, agricultural plant production represents an extremely intensive practice with large amounts of water and fertilizer usage. Agrochemical and water management are vital for efficient functioning of any agricultural enterprise, and the subsequent nutrient loading from such agricultural practices has been a concern for environmentalists. A thorough understanding of the agrochemical and the soil amendments used in these agricultural systems is of special interest as contamination of soils can cause surface and groundwater pollution leading to ecosystem toxicity. The presence of fragile ecosystems such as the Everglades, Biscayne Bay and Big Cypress near enterprises that use such agricultural systems makes the whole issue even more imminent. Although significant research has been conducted with soils and soil mix, there is no acceptable method for determining the hydraulic properties of mixtures that have been subjected to organic and inorganic soil amendments. Hydro-physical characterization of such mixtures can facilitate the understanding of water retention and permeation characteristics of the commonly used mix which can further allow modeling of soil water interactions. The objective of this study was to characterize some of the locally and commercially available plant growth mixtures for their hydro-physical properties and develop mathematical models to correlate these acquired basic properties to the hydraulic conductivity of the mixture. The objective was also to model the response patterns of soil amendments present in those mixtures to different water and fertilizer use scenarios using the characterized hydro-physical properties with the help of Everglades-Agro-Hydrology Model. The presence of organic amendments helps the mixtures retain more water while the inorganic amendments tend to adsorb more nutrients due to their high surface area. The results of these types of characterization can provide a scientific basis for understanding the non-point source water pollution from horticulture production systems and assist in the development of the best management practices for the operation of environmentally sustainable agricultural enterprise

Children with special health care needs: Comparison of the effects of home care setting, prescribed pediatric extended care setting, and long-term care setting on child and family health outcomes and health care service use

Technological advances during the past 30 years have dramatically improved survival rates for children with life-threatening conditions (preterm births, congenital anomalies, disease, or injury) resulting in children with special health care needs (CSHCN), children who have or are at increased risk for a chronic physical, developmental, behavioral, or emotional condition and who require health and related services beyond that required by children generally. There are approximately 10.2 million of these children in the United States or one in five households with a child with special health care needs. Care for these children is limited to home care, medical day care (Prescribed Pediatric Extended Care; P-PEC) or a long term care (LTC) facility. There is very limited research examining health outcomes of CSHCN and their families. The purpose of this research was to compare the effects of home care settings, P-PEC settings, and LTC settings on child health and functioning, family health and function, and health care service use of families with CSHCN. Eighty four CSHCN ages 2 to 21 years having a medically fragile or complex medical condition that required continual monitoring were enrolled with their parents/guardians. Interviews were conducted monthly for five months using the PedsQL™ Generic Core Module for child health and functioning, PedsQL™ Family Impact Module for family health and functioning, and Access to Care from the NS-CSHCN survey for health care services. Descriptive statistics, chi square, and ANCOVA were conducted to determine differences across care settings. Children in the P-PEC settings had a highest health care quality of life (HRQL) overall including physical and psychosocial functioning. Parents/guardians with CSHCN in LTC had the highest HRQL including having time and energy for a social life and employment. Parents/guardians with CSHCN in home care settings had the poorest HRQL including physical and psychosocial functioning with cognitive difficulties, difficulties with worry, communication, and daily activities. They had the fewest hours of employment and the most hours providing direct care for their children. Overall health care service use was the same across the care settings.

A Land That Has Yet to Heal: The Burmese Civil War (1948 – present)

Since its independence from Great Britain in 1948, the state of Burma has been at war with itself. Ethnic and religious tension fuel the conflict and has led to territorial disputes while no resolution to this strife is expected under a fragile and corrupt central government. Additionally, proxy wars have delayed any peaceful negotiations. The combinations of failing social welfare programs and prolonged peace talks have led many Burmese people join the military as soldiers in either the Burmese military or any one of the numerous ethnic paramilitary groups in the country. Human rights violations are common in Burma, including rape, pillaging, and ethnic cleansing. Essentially, Burma has had the longest ongoing civil war due to combination of grievances, many of which predate the 21st century.

Regional aspects of Miami crime fiction

This thesis argues that forces of literary regionalism and postmodern culture are behind the explosion of crime fiction being written in and about South Florida by a growing number of resident authors. Research included four methods of investigation: 1. A critical reading of many of the novels that make up the sub-genre. 2. A study of the theories of regionalism, postmodernism and the genre of the crime fiction. 3. Interviews with a number of the authors and a prominent Miami book seller. 4. Sociological studies of Miami in terms of historical events and their cultural significance. Today's South Florida crime fiction authors cast their narratives in the old genre of the detective novel where characters are delineated according to traditional definitions of good and evil. Evil characters threaten established order. What makes South Florida crime fiction different from traditional detective fiction is its interest in the exotic, postmodern culture and setting of South Florida. Like the region, the villains are exotic and the order that they threaten is postmodern. There is less of an interest in attributing a larger social meaning to the heroes. Rather, there is an ontological interest in the playing out of good against evil in an almost mythical setting that magnifies economic, environmental and racial issues. There is a unique cultural diversity of the city due to the geographical location of Miami in relationship to Latin America and the Caribbean, and the political forces at work in the region. South Florida's subtropical climate, fragile ecosystem, and elements of frontier life in a cosmopolitan city work to support Miami crime fiction. The setting personifies the unpredictability and pastiche of a postmodern world and may call for a new definition for literature that relies on non-traditional regional characteristics.

Trading Democracy for Security? The Effects of the International Drug War on the Quality of Democracy in the Dominican Republic, 1996 -2008

The purpose of the research is to study the relationship between international drug interdiction policies and domestic politics in fragile democracies, and to demonstrate how international drug control policies and the use of force fit the rhetoric of war, are legitimized by the principles of a just war, but may also cause collateral damage and negative unintended consequences. The method used is a case study of the Dominican Republic. The research has found that international drug control regimes, primarily led by the U.S. and narrowly focused on interdiction, have influenced an increasingly militarized approach to domestic law enforcement in the Dominican Republic. The collateral damage caused by militarized enforcement comes in the form of negative perceptions of citizen security, loss of respect for the rule of law and due process, and low levels of civil society development. The drug war has exposed the need for significant reform of the institutions charged with carrying out enforcement, the police force and the judicial system in particular. The dissertation concludes that the extent of drug trafficking in the Dominican Republic is beyond the scope of domestic reform efforts alone, but that the programs implemented do show some potential for future success. The dissertation also concludes that the framework of warfare is not the most appropriate for the international problems of drug traffic and abuse. A broader, multipronged approach should be considered by world policy makers in order to address all conditions that allow drugs to flourish without infringing upon democratic and civil rights in the process.

Hydro-Physical Characterization of Media Used in Agricultural Systems to Develop the Best Management Practices for operation of an Environmentally Sustainable Agricultural Enterprise

Florida is the second leading horticulture state in the United States with a total annual industry sale of over $12 Billion. Due to its competitive nature, agricultural plant production represents an extremely intensive practice with large amounts of water and fertilizer usage. Agrochemical and water management are vital for efficient functioning of any agricultural enterprise, and the subsequent nutrient loading from such agricultural practices has been a concern for environmentalists. A thorough understanding of the agrochemical and the soil amendments used in these agricultural systems is of special interest as contamination of soils can cause surface and groundwater pollution leading to ecosystem toxicity. The presence of fragile ecosystems such as the Everglades, Biscayne Bay and Big Cypress near enterprises that use such agricultural systems makes the whole issue even more imminent. Although significant research has been conducted with soils and soil mix, there is no acceptable method for determining the hydraulic properties of mixtures that have been subjected to organic and inorganic soil amendments. Hydro-physical characterization of such mixtures can facilitate the understanding of water retention and permeation characteristics of the commonly used mix which can further allow modeling of soil water interactions. The objective of this study was to characterize some of the locally and commercially available plant growth mixtures for their hydro-physical properties and develop mathematical models to correlate these acquired basic properties to the hydraulic conductivity of the mixture. The objective was also to model the response patterns of soil amendments present in those mixtures to different water and fertilizer use scenarios using the characterized hydro-physical properties with the help of Everglades-Agro-Hydrology Model. The presence of organic amendments helps the mixtures retain more water while the inorganic amendments tend to adsorb more nutrients due to their high surface area. The results of these types of characterization can provide a scientific basis for understanding the non-point source water pollution from horticulture production systems and assist in the development of the best management practices for the operation of environmentally sustainable agricultural enterprise

Children with Special Health Care Needs: Comparison of the Effects of Home Care Setting, Prescribed Pediatric Extended Care Setting, and Long-Term Care Setting on Child and Family Health Outcomes and Health Care Service Use

Technological advances during the past 30 years have dramatically improved survival rates for children with life-threatening conditions (preterm births, congenital anomalies, disease, or injury) resulting in children with special health care needs (CSHCN), children who have or are at increased risk for a chronic physical, developmental, behavioral, or emotional condition and who require health and related services beyond that required by children generally. There are approximately 10.2 million of these children in the United States or one in five households with a child with special health care needs. Care for these children is limited to home care, medical day care (Prescribed Pediatric Extended Care; P-PEC) or a long term care (LTC) facility. There is very limited research examining health outcomes of CSHCN and their families. The purpose of this research was to compare the effects of home care settings, P-PEC settings, and LTC settings on child health and functioning, family health and function, and health care service use of families with CSHCN. Eighty four CSHCN ages 2 to 21 years having a medically fragile or complex medical condition that required continual monitoring were enrolled with their parents/guardians. Interviews were conducted monthly for five months using the PedsQL TM Generic Core Module for child health and functioning, PedsQL TM Family Impact Module for family health and functioning, and Access to Care from the NS-CSHCN survey for health care services. Descriptive statistics, chi square, and ANCOVA were conducted to determine differences across care settings. Children in the P-PEC settings had a highest health care quality of life (HRQL) overall including physical and psychosocial functioning. Parents/guardians with CSHCN in LTC had the highest HRQL including having time and energy for a social life and employment. Parents/guardians with CSHCN in home care settings had the poorest HRQL including physical and psychosocial functioning with cognitive difficulties, difficulties with worry, communication, and daily activities. They had the fewest hours of employment and the most hours providing direct care for their children. Overall health care service use was the same across the care settings.

Fault Line

FAULT LINE examines the fragile humanity connected to the themes of sexuality, violence, addiction, family dynamics, and death. The book is not broken into sections; rather, as poems build upon one another to explore a narrative arc, FAULT LINE tracks a single speaker’s experience from girlhood to the verge of independent womanhood. The speaker employs formal structures such as the prose poem, sestina, and particularly the list poem to examine the fluidity of inner experience and also the culture at large while challenging the narrow definitions of femininity and masculinity. FAULT LINE works to not only address the question of blame but also the literal breaks in lines of poetry. By looking at a single speaker’s struggle, the book, like life, is both humorous and horrifying.