Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: a case study from south Florida

Extensive portions of the southern Everglades are characterized by series of elongated, raised peat ridges and tree islands oriented parallel to the predominant flow direction, separated by intervening sloughs. Tall herbs or woody species are associated with higher elevations and shorter emergent or floating species are associated with lower elevations. The organic soils in this “Ridge-and-Slough” landscape have been stable over millennia in many locations, but degrade over decades under altered hydrologic conditions. We examined soil, pore water, and leaf phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) distributions in six Ridge and Slough communities in Shark Slough, Everglades National Park. We found P enrichment to increase and N to decrease monotonically along a gradient from the most persistently flooded sloughs to rarely flooded ridge environments, with the most dramatic change associated with the transition from marsh to forest. Leaf N:P ratios indicated that the marsh communities were strongly P-limited, while data from several forest types suggested either N-limitation or co-limitation by N and P. Ground water stage in forests exhibited a daytime decrease and partial nighttime recovery during periods of surface exposure. The recovery phase suggested re-supply from adjacent flooded marshes or the underlying aquifer, and a strong hydrologic connection between ridge and slough. We therefore developed a simple steady-state model to explore a mechanism by which a phosphorus conveyor belt driven by both evapotranspiration and the regional flow gradient can contribute to the characteristic Ridge and Slough pattern. The model demonstrated that evapotranspiration sinks at higher elevations can draw in low concentration marsh waters, raising local soil and water P concentrations. Focusing of flow and nutrients at the evapotranspiration zone is not strong enough to overcome the regional gradient entirely, allowing the nutrient to spread downstream and creating an elongated concentration plume in the direction of flow. Our analyses suggest that autogenic processes involving the effects of initially small differences in topography, via their interactions with hydrology and nutrient availability, can produce persistent physiographic patterns in the organic sediments of the Everglades.

Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: a case study from south Florida

Freeze events significantly influence landscape structure and community composition along subtropical coastlines. This is particularly true in south Florida, where such disturbances have historically contributed to patch diversity within the mangrove forest, and have played a part in limiting its inland transgression. With projected increases in mean global temperatures, such instances are likely to become much less frequent in the region, contributing to a reduction in heterogeneity within the mangrove forest itself. To understand the process more clearly, we explored the dynamics of a Dwarf mangrove forest following two chilling events that produced freeze-like symptoms, i.e., leaf browning, desiccation, and mortality, and interpreted the resulting changes within the context of current winter temperatures and projected future scenarios. Structural effects from a 1996 chilling event were dramatic, with mortality and tissue damage concentrated among individuals comprising the Dwarf forest's low canopy. This disturbance promoted understory plant development and provided an opportunity for Laguncularia racemosa to share dominance with Rhizophora mangle. Mortality due to the less severe 2001 event was greatest in the understory, probably because recovery of the protective canopy following the earlier freeze was still incomplete. Stand dynamics were static over the same period in nearby unimpacted sites. The probability of reaching temperatures as low as those recorded at a nearby meteorological station (≤3 °C) under several warming scenarios was simulated by applying 1° incremental temperature increases to a model developed from a 42-year temperature record. According to the model, the frequency of similar chilling events decreased from once every 1.9 years at present to once every 3.4 and 32.5 years with 1 and 4 °C warming, respectively. The large decrease in the frequency of these events would eliminate an important mechanism that maintains Dwarf forest structure, and promotes compositional diversity.

Effects of climate variability on transparency and thermal structure in subtropical, monomictic Lake Annie, Florida

Lake Annie is a small (37 ha), relatively deep (21 m) sinkhole lake on the Lake Wales Ridge (LWR) of central Florida with a long history of study, including monthly limnological monitoring since June, 1983. The record shows high variability in Secchi disc transparency, which ranged from < 1 to 15 m with a trend toward decreasing values over the latter decade of record. We examined available regional meteorological, groundwater and limnological data to determine the drivers and thermal consequences of variability in water transparency. While total nutrient concentrations and chlorophyll-a were highest during years of low transparency, stepwise regression showed that none of these had a signifi cant effect on transparency after water color was taken into account. Repeated years of high precipitation between 1993–2005 caused an increase in water table height, increasing the transport of dissolved substances from the vegetated watershed into the lake. Groundwater stage explained 73 % of the interannual variability in water transparency. Transparency, in turn, explained 85 % of the interannual variability in the heat budget for the lake, which ranged from 1.8 × 108 to 4.1 × 108 Joules m–2 yr–1, encompassing the range reported across Florida lakes. While surface water temperature was not affected by transparency, depths below 5 m warmed faster during the stratifi ed period during years having a lower rate of light extinction. We show that an increase in precipitation of 20 cm per year reduces the depth of the summer euphotic zone and thermocline by 1.9 and 1.6 m, respectively, and causes a 1-month reduction in the duration of winter mixing in this monomictic lake. Because biota have been shown to respond to shifts in light and heat distribution of much smaller magnitude than exhibited here, our work suggests that subtle changes in precipitation linked to climate fl uctuations may have signifi cant physical as well as biotic consequences.