Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

The effects of climate on the growth and physiology of tropical rainforest trees

Tropical rainforests account for more than a third of global net primary production and contain more than half of the global forest carbon. Though these forests are a disproportionately important component of the global carbon cycle, the relationship between rainforest productivity and climate remains poorly understood. Understanding the link between current climate and rainforest tree stem diameter increment, a major constituent of forest productivity, will be crucial to efforts at modeling future climate and rainforest response to climate change. This work reports the physiological and stem growth responses to micrometeorological and phenological states of ten species of canopy trees in a Costa Rican wet tropical forest at sub-annual time intervals. I measured tree growth using band dendrometers and estimated leaf and reproductive phenological states monthly. Electronic data loggers recorded xylem sap flow (an indicator of photosynthetic rate) and weather at half-hour intervals. An analysis of xylem sap flow showed that physiological responses were independent of species, which allowed me to construct a general model of weather driven sap flow rates. This model predicted more than eighty percent of climate driven sap flow variation. Leaf phenology influenced growth in three of the ten species, with two of these species showing a link between leaf phenology and weather. A combination of rainfall, air temperature, and irradiance likely provided the cues that triggered leaf drop in Dipteryx panamensis and Lecythis ampla. Combining the results of the sap flow model, growth, and the climate measures showed tree growth was correlated to climate, though the majority of growth variation remained unexplained. Low variance in the environmental variables and growth rates likely contributed to the large amount of unexplained variation. A simple model that included previous growth increment and three meteorological variables explained from four to nearly fifty percent of the growth variation. Significant growth carryover existed in six of the ten species, and rainfall was positively correlated to growth in eight of the ten species. Minimum nighttime temperature was also correlated to higher growth rates in five of the species and irradiance in two species. These results indicate that tropical rainforest tree trunks could act as carbon sinks if future climate becomes wetter and slightly warmer. ^

The examination of the relationships among secondary principals' leadership behaviors, school climate, and student achievement in an urban context

School principals' leadership is key to successful school reform, as is increased student achievement. This nonexperimental ex post facto study tested relationships among secondary school principals' leadership behaviors, school climate, and student achievement. Of 165 secondary school principals from the three largest school districts in South Florida, 58 completed three online survey instruments: the Leadership Practices Inventory, School Climate Inventory-Revised, and researcher-designed Demographic Questionnaire. Student achievement was measured by students' scores on the reading and mathematics Florida Comprehensive Assessment Tests. Three null hypotheses tested relationships among (a) five principals' leadership behaviors and seven domains of school climate; (b) principals' leadership behaviors and student achievement; and (c) principals' leadership behaviors, school climate, and student achievement. Multiple linear regressions were used to determine the degree to which the independent variables predicted the dependent variables for the first two hypotheses. ANOVAs tested possible group differences between the demographic and research variables as controls for the third hypothesis. Partial correlational analyses tested the strength and direction of relationships among leadership behaviors, climate, and achievement. Results revealed partial support of the hypotheses. None of the leadership variables significantly predicted school climate. No significant relationships were found among the five leadership behaviors and student achievement. Demographic group differences in school climate and student achievement were marginally significant. The leadership behaviors of Inspiring a Shared Vision and Enabling Others to Act were positively linked to reading achievement. Partial correlations were found (r .27 to −.35) among school climate variables of Order, Involvement, and Expectation and achievement variables. The Modeling the Way leadership variable was negatively associated with reading achievement. After controlling for gender, years at current school, and years in the district, partial positive correlations were found among leadership, school climate, and student achievement. Inspiring a Shared Vision, Enabling Others to Act, Encouraging the Heart, and Challenging the Process leadership variables were partially correlated to Order, Leadership (Instructional), and Expectation climate variables. Study results should provide policymakers and educators with a leadership profile for school leaders challenging the status quo who can create schools for enhanced student learning and relevance to the needs of students, families, and society.

Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.