Development of safety performance functions for empirical Bayes estimation of crash reduction factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.

Composition of a protein-like fluorophore of dissolved organic matter in coastal wetland and estuarine ecosystems

This study demonstrates the compositional heterogeneity of a protein-like fluorescence emission signal (T-peak; excitation/emission maximum at 280/325 nm) of dissolved organic matter (DOM) samples collected from subtropical river and estuarine environments. Natural water samples were collected from the Florida Coastal Everglades ecosystem. The samples were ultrafiltered and excitation–emission fluorescence matrices were obtained. The T-peak intensity correlated positively with N concentration of the ultrafiltered DOM solution (UDON), although, the low correlation coefficient (r2=0.140, p<0.05) suggested the coexistence of proteins with other classes of compounds in the T-peak. As such, the T-peak was unbundled on size exclusion chromatography. The elution curves showed that the T-peak was composed of two compounds with distinct molecular weights (MW) with nominal MWs of about >5×104 (T1) and ∼7.6×103 (T2) and with varying relative abundance among samples. The T1-peak intensity correlated strongly with [UDON] (r2=0.516, p<0.001), while T2-peak did not, which suggested that the T-peak is composed of a mixture of compounds with different chemical structures and ecological roles, namely proteinaceous materials and presumably phenolic moieties in humic-like substances. Natural source of the latter may include polyphenols leached from senescent plant materials, which are important precursors of humic substances. This idea is supported by the fact that polyphenols, such as gallic acid, an important constituent of hydrolysable tannins, and condensed tannins extracted from red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) leaves exhibited the fluorescence peak in the close vicinity of the T-peak (260/346 and 275/313 nm, respectively). Based on this study the application of the T-peak as a proxy for [DON] in natural waters may have limitations in coastal zones with significant terrestrial DOM input.

The effects of cross -age peer tutoring on writing and reading comprehension skills and attitudes and self -perceptions as writers of third and fourth grade students

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of cross-age peer writing response groups on the writing and reading achievement of third and fourth grade students. Students' attitudes about writing and their perceptions of themselves as writers were also measured at the end of the study. ^ One hundred and twenty-two third and fourth grade students enrolled in a public school in a middle-class, multi-cultural neighborhood participated in the study. Four existing classes of students were randomly assigned to either the experimental condition (EC) or the control condition (CC). Both groups were pretested and posttested for writing and reading achievement. The intervention, cross-age peer writing groups, met for eleven weeks. ^ Three hypotheses were examined in this study: (a) writing improvement score, (b) reading comprehension improvement score, and (c) students' attitudes toward writing and their perception of themselves as writers based on the five scales measured on the Writer Self-Perception Scale. ^ ANOVAs were done on the pretests and posttests for writing and the Stanford Achievement Test reading comprehension subtest scores for the year of the study and the previous year. ANOVAs were also done for the five areas of the Writer Self-Perception Scale. Cross-tabulations were also used to compare improvement level verses treatment group, and grade level. ^ Analysis of the data revealed that there was no evidence that the tutoring (EC) groups made more progress than the non-tutoring (CC) groups in writing and reading. There was evidence of growth in writing, especially by the fourth graders. Most importantly, the fourth grade tutors, the experimental group, had the most positive feelings about writing and themselves as writers. ^

The effects of jigsaw cooperative learning on motivation to learn English at Chung -Hwa Institute of Technology, Taiwan

The Ministry of Education (MOE) of the Republic of China in Taiwan considers English to be one of the keys to raising Taiwan's international competitiveness and requires students attending institutes of technology to receive instruction in English as a foreign language (EFL). This study focused on impacts of the use of cooperative learning as a teaching method on EFL learners. The setting was the English classes of Chung-Hwa Institute of Technology (CHIT). The subjects were 77 students from two classes, majoring in Business Administration. ^ The purpose of this study was to determine the differential effects (i.e., achievement in learning English, motivation orientation and intensity, and attitude concerning English language and culture) on students between the traditional Chinese teaching method and the Jigsaw cooperative learning method at CHIT. ^ The research design for the study was quasi-experimental and descriptive. This study utilized three survey instruments and final exam grades to investigate the effect of Jigsaw on the EFL students' competency in English, and on their attitudes about, and level of motivation toward learning English. The independent variable was the instructional method: one class utilized the Jigsaw approach to cooperative learning while the other utilized the traditional Chinese approach. The dependent variables were academic performance, motivation orientation toward English, motivation intensity toward learning English, and attitude toward learning of English and English culture as determined by final exam and questionnaire scores. The questionnaires and exam were administrated at the beginning and end of the semester. ^ Data analysis indicated that students learning cooperatively had higher final course grades and made more integrative statements on the measure of orientation toward learning English than students who learned using the traditional Chinese methods. Participants who learned using cooperative strategies had more positive attitudes about learning English connected with their desire to associate with English speakers and had more positive attitudes about the learning mechanism they experienced than those instructed though traditional Chinese learning strategies. There were no differences between the groups on the measure of motivation intensity. Recommendations were made to improve the use of the Jigsaw method of cooperative learning through both pedagogical and policy modifications. ^

Stereoselective synthesis of vinyl germanes and silanes. Applications of tris(trimethyl)germanes and silanes in Pd-catalyzed cross -coupling reactions

Although group 14 organometallic compounds (Si, Sn) have been well developed as transmetallation reagents in cross-coupling reactions, the application of organogermanium compounds as cross-coupling reagents is still a relatively new area with few papers published. This study aimed to develop methods for the synthesis of new classes of vinyl germane and vinyl silane compounds, mainly Z and E tris(trimethylsilyl)germanes and silanes, which were then applied to Pd-catalyzed cross-couplings with aryl and alkenyl halides. The stereoselective radical-mediated desulfonylation of vinyl sulfones with tris(trimethyl)germanium or silane hydrides provided access to the synthesis of trans vinyl germanes or silanes. Alternatively hydrogermylation or hydrosilylation of terminal alkynes gave cis vinyl germanes or silanes. The application of these new classes of organometallic compounds in cross-coupling reactions with various aryl and alkenyl halides under aqueous [NaOH/H2O2/Pd(PPh 3)4] and anhydrous [KH/t-BuOOH/Pd(PPh 3)4] oxidative conditions were investigated. ^ It was found that the vinyl tris(trimethylsilyl)germanes successfully underwent Pd-catalyzed cross-couplings with aryl and alkenyl halides and aryl triflates under aqueous and anhydrous oxidative conditions. These procedures provided examples of "ligand-free" Pd-catalyzed coupling of organogermanes with aryl and alkenyl halides. Interestingly, couplings with fluorinated vinyl germanes appeared to occur more easily than with the corresponding (α-fluoro)vinyl stannanes and silanes since neither addition of an extra ligand nor activation with fluoride was necessary. The vinyl tris(trimethyl)silanes were found to be alternative substrates for the Hiyama reaction. The coupling of TTMS-silanes with various aryl, heteroaryl as well as alkenyl halides proceeded smoothly upon treatment with hydrogen peroxide in the presence of sodium hydroxide and fluoride ion. ^

Evidence of the heterogeneous market hypothesis using wavelet multi -resolution analysis

In finance literature many economic theories and models have been proposed to explain and estimate the relationship between risk and return. Assuming risk averseness and rational behavior on part of the investor, the models are developed which are supposed to help in forming efficient portfolios that either maximize (minimize) the expected rate of return (risk) for a given level of risk (rates of return). One of the most used models to form these efficient portfolios is the Sharpe's Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the development of this model it is assumed that the investors have homogeneous expectations about the future probability distribution of the rates of return. That is, every investor assumes the same values of the parameters of the probability distribution. Likewise financial volatility homogeneity is commonly assumed, where volatility is taken as investment risk which is usually measured by the variance of the rates of return. Typically the square root of the variance is used to define financial volatility, furthermore it is also often assumed that the data generating process is made of independent and identically distributed random variables. This again implies that financial volatility is measured from homogeneous time series with stationary parameters. In this dissertation, we investigate the assumptions of homogeneity of market agents and provide evidence for the case of heterogeneity in market participants' information, objectives, and expectations about the parameters of the probability distribution of prices as given by the differences in the empirical distributions corresponding to different time scales, which in this study are associated with different classes of investors, as well as demonstrate that statistical properties of the underlying data generating processes including the volatility in the rates of return are quite heterogeneous. In other words, we provide empirical evidence against the traditional views about homogeneity using non-parametric wavelet analysis on trading data, The results show heterogeneity of financial volatility at different time scales, and time-scale is one of the most important aspects in which trading behavior differs. In fact we conclude that heterogeneity as posited by the Heterogeneous Markets Hypothesis is the norm and not the exception.