Decision-making under extreme *uncertainty: Rethinking hazard -related perceptions and action

Understanding who evacuates and who does not has been one of the cornerstones of research on the pre-impact phase of both natural and technological hazards. Its history is rich in descriptive illustrations focusing on lists of characteristics of those who flee to safety. Early models of evacuation focused almost exclusively on the relationship between whether warnings were heard and ultimately believed and evacuation behavior. How people came to believe these warnings and even how they interpreted the warnings were not incorporated. In fact, the individual seemed almost removed from the picture with analysis focusing exclusively on external measures. ^ This study built and tested a more comprehensive model of evacuation that centers on the decision-making process, rather than decision outcomes. The model focused on three important factors that alter and shape the evacuation decision-making landscape. These factors are: individual level indicators which exist independently of the hazard itself and act as cultural lenses through which information is heard, processed and interpreted; hazard specific variables that directly relate to the specific hazard threat; and risk perception. The ultimate goal is to determine what factors influence the evacuation decision-making process. Using data collected for 1998's Hurricane Georges, logistic regression models were used to evaluate how well the three main factors help our understanding of how individuals come to their decisions to either flee to safety during a hurricane or remain in their homes. ^ The results of the logistic regression were significant emphasizing that the three broad types of factors tested in the model influence the decision making process. Conclusions drawn from the data analysis focus on how decision-making frames are different for those who can be designated “evacuators” and for those in evacuation zones. ^

Exploring thermal and mechanical properties of selected transition elements under extreme conditions: Experiments at high pressures and high temperatures

Transition metals (Ti, Zr, Hf, Mo, W, V, Nb, Ta, Pd, Pt, Cu, Ag, and Au) are essential building units of many materials and have important industrial applications. Therefore, it is important to understand their thermal and physical behavior when they are subjected to extreme conditions of pressure and temperature. This dissertation presents: • An improved experimental technique to use lasers for the measurement of thermal conductivity of materials under conditions of very high pressure (P, up to 50 GPa) and temperature (T up to 2500 K). • An experimental study of the phase relationship and physical properties of selected transition metals, which revealed new and unexpected physical effects of thermal conductivity in Zr, and Hf under high P-T. • New phase diagrams created for Hf, Ti and Zr from experimental data. • P-T dependence of the lattice parameters in α-hafnium. Contrary to prior reports, the α-ω phase transition in hafnium has a negative dT/dP slope. • New data on thermodynamic and physical properties of several transition metals and their respective high P-T phase diagrams. • First complete thermodynamic database for solid phases of 13 common transition metals was created. This database has: All the thermochemical data on these elements in their standard state (mostly available and compiled); All the equations of state (EoS) formulated from pressure-volume-temperature data (measured as a part of this study and from literature); Complete thermodynamic data for selected elements from standard to extreme conditions. The thermodynamic database provided by this study can be used with available thermodynamic software to calculate all thermophysical properties and phase diagrams at high P-T conditions. For readers who do not have access to this software, tabulated values of all thermodynamic and volume data for the 13 metals at high P-T are included in the APPENDIX. In the APPENDIX, a description of several other high-pressure studies of selected oxide systems is also included. Thermophysical properties (Cp, H, S, G) of the high P-T ω-phase of Ti, Zr and Hf were determined during the optimization of the EoS parameters and are presented in this study for the first time. These results should have important implications in understanding hexagonal-close-packed to simple-hexagonal phase transitions in transition metals and other materials.

Challenge to Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to career Development

In his discussion - Challenge To Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to Career Development - by Leonidas Chitiris, Lecturer in Management, Piraeus Graduate School of Industrial Studies, Athens, Greece, Chitiris marginally alludes at the outset: “Surveys and interviews with hotel employees in Greece with regard to why individuals work for hotels and to what extent their rationale to join the hotel industry affects hotel productivity revealed that the choice to work in hotels is a secondary preference and reflects the opportunity structure in the economy at any given time and the greater the number of those who work in hotels when there are no other employment opportunities, the less likely the chances for overall improved performance. Given the increase in the proportion of unskilled, unmotivated workers, the level of hotel productivity consequently decreases! The author interprets the findings in terms of the economic and employment conditions in the Greek hotel industry. To enhance the rationale of his thesis statement, Chitiris offers with citation: “Research on initial entry into the labor force has shown that new employees reflect idealized expectations and are frequently not very satisfied with their jobs and roles in the work settings.” Chitiris advances the thought even further by saying: “Research on job satisfaction, motivation, and production purports that management can initiate policies that develop job satisfaction and may improve productivity.” The author outlines components within the general category of the hotel industry to label and quantify exactly why there may be a lag between employee expectations and the delivery of a superior level of service. Please keep in mind that the information for this essay is underpinned by the hotel industry in Greece, exclusively. Demographic information is provided. One example of the many factors parsed in this hotel service discussion is the employee/guest relationship. “The quality of service in hotels is affected to a great extent by the number of guests a hotel employee has to serve,” Chitiris offers. Additionally, Chitiris’ characterization of the typical hotel employee in Greece is not flattering, but it is an informed and representative view of that lodging labor pool. The description in and of itself begs to explain at least some of why the hotel industry in Greece suffers a consequently diminished capacity of superior service. Ill equipped, under-educated, over-worked, and under-paid are how Chitiris describes most employees in the Hellenist hospitality field. Survey based studies, and formulaic indices are used to measure variables related to productivity; the results may be inconclusive industry wide, but are interesting nonetheless. Also, an appealing table gauges the reasons why hotel workers actually employ themselves in the lodging industry. Chirtiris finds that salary expectations do not rate all that high on the motivational chart and are only marginal when related to productivity. In closing, Chirtiris presents a 5-phase development plan hotels should look to in improving performance and productivity at their respective properties.

Living with Uncertainty: Acting in the Best Interests of Women

A recent multi-country study on hormonal contraceptives (HC) and HIV acquisition and transmission among African HIV-serodiscordant couples reported a statistically significant doubling of risk for HIV acquisition among women as well as transmission from women to men for injectable contraceptives. Together with a prior cohort study on African women seeking health services, these data are the strongest yet to appear on the HC-HIV risk. This paper will briefly review the Heffron study strengths and relevant biological and epidemiologic evidence; address the futility of further trials; and propose instead an alternative framework for next steps. The weight of the evidence calls for a discontinuation of progestin-dominant methods. We propose here five types of productive activities: (1) scaling injectable hormones down and out of the contraceptive mix; (2) strengthening and introducing public health strategies with proven potential to reduce HIV spread; (3) providing maximal choice to reduce unplanned pregnancy, starting with quality sexuality education through to safe abortion access; (4) expanding provider training, end-user counseling and access to male and female barriers, with a special renewed focus on female condom; (5) initiating a serious research agenda to determine anti-STI/HIV potential of the contraceptive cervical cap. Trusting women to make informed choices is critical to achieve real progress in dual protection.