Landscape Pattern – Marl Prairie/Slough Gradient: Vegetation Composition along the Gradient and Decadal Vegetation Change Pattern in Shark Slough: Annual Report 2012

In the southern Everglades, vegetation in both the marl prairie and ridge and slough landscapes is sensitive to large-scale restoration activities associated with the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) authorized by the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) 2000 to restore the south Florida ecosystem. More specifically, changes in hydrologic regimes at both local and landscape scales are likely to affect vegetation composition along marl prairie-slough gradient resulting in a shift in boundary between plant communities in these landscapes. To strengthen our ability to assess how vegetation would respond to changes in underlying ecosystem drivers along the gradient, an improved understanding of reference conditions of plant community structure and function, and their responses to major stressors is important. In this regard, a study of vegetation structure and composition in relation to physical and biological processes along the marl prairie-slough gradient was initiated in 2005, and has continued through 2012 with funding from US Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE) (Cooperative Agreement # W912HZ-09-2-0018 Modification No.: P00002). This study addresses the hypothesis with respect to RECOVER-MAP monitoring item 3.1.3.5 – “Marl Prairie/Slough Gradients; patterns and trends in Shark Slough marshes and associated marl prairies”.

Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Habitat Monitoring and Assessment - 2010 Final Report

For the last two decades, the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS), a federally endangered species, has been a pivot point for water management operations in the Everglades, primarily because a decline in sparrow population in the early 1990s was attributed in part to managementinduced alterations in hydrologic regimes. With a goal of understanding the response of landscape-level processes to hydrological restoration and its interaction with fire, a study intended to monitor vegetation structure and composition throughout the marl prairie landscape has been conducted since 2003 with funding from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). In the first three years (2003-2005), vegetation structure and composition was characterized in relation to the existing hydrologic regime and fire history. During 2006-2010, vegetation was resampled to assess vegetation change within the sparrow habitat. This document summarizes the vegetation change pattern observed between the two sampling periods in sub-population A, C, E and F, emphasizing the work accomplished in FY 2010.

Decadal Change in Vegetation and Soil Phosphorus Pattern across the Everglades Landscape

Wetlands respond to nutrient enrichment with characteristic increases in soil nutrients and shifts in plant community composition. These responses to eutrophication tend to be more rapid and longer lasting in oligotrophic systems. In this study, we documented changes associated with water quality from 1989 to 1999 in oligotrophic Everglades wetlands. We accomplished this by resampling soils and macrophytes along four transects in 1999 that were originally sampled in 1989. In addition to documenting soil phosphorus (P) levels and decadal changes in plant species composition at the same sites, we report macrophyte tissue nutrient and biomass data from 1999 for future temporal comparisons. Water quality improved throughout much of the Everglades in the 1990s. In spite of this improvement, though, we found that water quality impacts worsened during this time in areas of the northern Everglades (western Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge [NWR] and Water Conservation Area [WCA] 2A). Zones of high soil P (exceeding 700 mg P kg−1 dry wt. soil) increased to more than 1 km from the western margin canal into the Loxahatchee NWR and more than 4 km from northern boundary canal into WCA-2A. This doubling of the high soil P zones since 1989 was paralleled with an expansion of cattail (Typha spp.)-dominated marsh in both regions. Macrophyte species richness declined in both areas from 1989 to 1999 (27% in the Loxahatchee NWR and 33% in WCA-2A). In contrast, areas well south of the Everglades Agricultural Area, including WCA-3A and Everglades National Park (ENP), did not decline during this time. We found no significant decadal change in plant community patterns from 1989 and 1999 along transects in southern WCA-3A or Shark River Slough (ENP). Our 1999 sampling also included a new transect in Taylor Slough (ENP), which will allow change analysis here in the future. Regular sampling of these transects, to verify decadal-scale environmental impacts or improvements, will continue to be an important tool for long-term management and restoration of the Everglades.

The European Parliament, membership expansions, and organizational change

The European Union (EU) is an extraordinary achievement. From a regional economic organization, it grew into a polity within fifty years. The original EU of six members expanded incrementally to 27 over forty years, and it now comprises a population of almost 500 million people. While the five expansions of the European Economic Community/European Community/European Union (EU) have received considerable scholarly attention, surprisingly little attention has been given to their impacts on "Europe's" only legislative body, currently known as the European Parliament (EP). More specifically, little is known about how waves of new members (from widely diverse parties and national backgrounds) affected—and were affected by—the EP's organizational structure and its internal processes. The purpose of this study therefore is to help fill this gap by describing and explaining how the various EEC/EC/EU expansions or "membership shocks" (1973, 1981, 1986, 1995, and 2004) affected the EP's organizational structure and its internal Rules of Procedure (RoP). The central research question of this dissertation is the following: What were the major structural and procedural effects of the five membership expansions of what eventually became the European Union on the European Parliament? This dissertation answers this question by using concepts and measures drawn from organizational theory. While other studies have applied concepts and hypotheses from organizational theory to legislatures, such an approach has never been used to analyze the EP, which is conceptualized here as a "membership organization." This study, through an analysis of the EP, demonstrates that organization theory can help us fully understand the effects of membership expansions on any membership organization. That is, understanding how this particular organization responded to change can inform not only how others in this class (legislatures) do so, but how this process unfolds in a variety of times and places. The principal findings of this study are as follows: (1) EP staff growth revealed an interesting pattern: Staff did not increase concurrently with EP membership. That is, it turned out that the rate of membership growth exceeded the rate of staff increase, suggesting professionalization of EP staff and their relative empowerment vis-à-vis MEPs; (2) The number of rules and the precision within them increased; (3) the largest number of EP rule changes focused on increasing EP efficiency; and (4) The authority was centralized in the hands of EP leadership, that is, the EP President, the Conference of Presidents and also two major political groups.

An investigation of multiple pathways of developmental intervention change

Convergence among treatment, prevention, and developmental intervention approaches has led to the recognition of the need for evaluation models and research designs that employ a full range of evaluation information to provide an empirical basis for enhancing the efficiency, efficacy, and effectiveness of prevention and positive development interventions. This study reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools. This study used a Relational Data Analysis integration of quantitative and qualitative data analysis strategies, including the use of both fixed and free response measures and a structural equation modeling approach, to construct and evaluate the hypothesized OMC model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 6.991, p = .43; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .459). Findings also provided preliminary evidence consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes. Furthermore, the general pattern of findings suggested the need to use methods capable of capturing both quantitative and qualitative change in order to increase the likelihood of identifying more complete theory informed empirically supported models of developmental intervention change processes.

Recent and Historic Drivers of Landscape Change in the Everglades Ridge, Slough, and Tree Island Mosaic

More than half of the original Everglades extent formed a patterned peat mosaic of elevated ridges, lower and more open sloughs, and tree islands aligned parallel to the dominant flow direction. This ecologically important landscape structure remained in a dynamic equilibrium for millennia prior to rapid degradation over the past century in response to human manipulation of the hydrologic system. Restoration of the patterned landscape structure is one of the primary objectives of the Everglades restoration effort. Recent research has revealed that three main drivers regulated feedbacks that initiated and maintained landscape structure: the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water depths, surface and subsurface flow, and phosphorus supply. Causes of recent degradation include but are not limited to perturbations to these historically important controls; shifts in mineral and sulfate supply may have also contributed to degradation. Restoring predrainage hydrologic conditions will likely preserve remaining landscape pattern structure, provided a sufficient supply of surface water with low nutrient and low total dissolved solids content exists to maintain a rainfall-driven water chemistry. However, because of hysteresis in landscape evolution trajectories, restoration of areas with a fully degraded landscape could require additional human intervention.

The utility of an Integrated Qualitative /Quantitative Data Analytic Strategy (IQ -DAS) to evaluate the impact of youth development interventions to positive qualitative change in the life course

This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQ-DAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). ^ Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. ^ Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups. ^

Drivers of Decadal-Scale Change in Southern Everglades Wetland Macrophyte Communities of the Coastal Ecotone

Understanding the relationships between hydrology and salinity and plant community structure and production is critical to allow predictions of wetland responses to altered water management, changing precipitation patterns and rising sea-level. We addressed how salinity, water depth, hydroperiod, canal inflows, and local precipitation control marsh macrophyte aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and structure in the coastal ecotone of the southern Everglades. We contrasted responses in two watersheds - Taylor Slough (TS) and C-111 - systems that have and will continue to experience changes in water management. Based on long-term trajectories in plant responses, we found continued evidence of increasing water levels and length of inundation in the C-111 watershed south of the C-111 canal. We also found strong differentiation among sites in upper TS that was dependent on hydrology. Finally, salinity, local precipitation and freshwater discharge from upstream explained over 80 % of the variance in Cladium ANPP at a brackish water site in TS. Moreover, our study showed that, while highly managed, the TS and C-111 watersheds maintain legacies in spatial pattern that would facilitate hydrologic restoration. Based on the trajectories in Cladium and Eleocharis, shifts in plant community structure could occur within 5–10 years of sustained water management change.

The utility of an integrated qualitative/quantitative data analytic strategy (IQ-DAS) to evaluate the impact of youth development interventions on positive qualitative change in the life course

This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQDAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.