Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Capacity-based cost modeling for light rail and bus rapid transit systems

Choosing between Light Rail Transit (LRT) and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is often controversial and not an easy task for transportation planners who are contemplating the upgrade of their public transportation services. These two transit systems provide comparable services for medium-sized cities from the suburban neighborhood to the Central Business District (CBD) and utilize similar right-of-way (ROW) categories. The research is aimed at developing a method to assist transportation planners and decision makers in determining the most feasible system between LRT and BRT. ^ Cost estimation is a major factor when evaluating a transit system. Typically, LRT is more expensive to build and implement than BRT, but has significantly lower Operating and Maintenance (OM) costs than BRT. This dissertation examines the factors impacting capacity and costs, and develops cost models, which are a capacity-based cost estimate for the LRT and BRT systems. Various ROW categories and alignment configurations of the systems are also considered in the developed cost models. Kikuchi's fleet size model (1985) and cost allocation method are used to develop the cost models to estimate the capacity and costs. ^ The comparison between LRT and BRT are complicated due to many possible transportation planning and operation scenarios. In the end, a user-friendly computer interface integrated with the established capacity-based cost models, the LRT and BRT Cost Estimator (LBCostor), was developed by using Microsoft Visual Basic language to facilitate the process and will guide the users throughout the comparison operations. The cost models and the LBCostor can be used to analyze transit volumes, alignments, ROW configurations, number of stops and stations, headway, size of vehicle, and traffic signal timing at the intersections. The planners can make the necessary changes and adjustments depending on their operating practices. ^

The Central Agency for Jewish Education: Fifty years of Jewish education in Dade County

The purpose of the study was to provide a historical record of the Bureau of Jewish Education/Central Agency for Jewish Education and its role in Jewish education in Miami since its inception in 1944 as well as to provide a sociological context within which to view the growth and development of the community. During the past 50 years of the Agency's existence, Dade County's Jewish population has undergone many changes including a huge population increase in the 1960s and 1970s and then a decrease in the 1980s and 1990s, and a shift from postwar business class of store owners to turn of the century professional class.^ The methodology used in this study was threefold. First, document analysis of formal and informal documents dating from 1944 to the present was conducted. Second, personal interviews were conducted with the Executive Directors of the B.J.E./C.A.J.E., long-time B.J.E./C.A.J.E. staff, present staff, Greater Miami Jewish Federation leaders, and lay leadership of C.A.J.E. Third, national trends in Jewish education were cited as a basis for the comparison and contrast of the achievements of C.A.J.E.^ The historiography concluded that the Agency had come full circle in its programs. Analysis of the services provided to religious and day schools, early childhood education, the High Schools, teacher services, adult education, and the library indicated that in some areas C.A.J.E. was an innovator, in other areas it followed national trends, and in others it was deficient. Recommendations included a reeducative process for the community with Jewish education made top priority, more visibility and publicity for the work of C.A.J.E. that would enhance its prestige and improve support, and holistic planning of programs for the future. ^

Isotopic studies of the Guerrero composite terrane, west-central Mexico: Implications for provenance of crustal rocks and genesis of ore metals

A variety of world-class mineral deposits occur in Mesozoic and Tertiary rocks of the Guerrero terrane. New Pb isotope analyses of various crustal units and ores from distinct subterranes of the Guerrero terrane are presented to trace metal sources in these deposits and infer source reservoirs. New Sr and Nd isotope results are provided to gain insight into the provenance of the crustal rocks from the Guerrero terrane. Triassic schist samples from the Arteaga Complex and Triassic-Jurassic phyllite and slate samples from the Tejupilco metamorphic suite contain radiogenic Pb (206Pb/204Pb = 18.701–19.256) relative to bulk earth models. Cretaceous sedimentary rocks of the Zihuatanejo Sequence are more radiogenic (206Pb/204Pb = 18.763–19.437) than samples from the Huetamo Sequence (206Pb/204Pb = 18.630–18.998). Tertiary intrusive rocks from La Verde, Inguaran, La Esmeralda, and El Malacate plot to the right of the average Pb crust evolution curve of Stacey and Kramers (206Pb/204Pb = 18.705–19.033). Ores from the La Verde and La Esmeralda porphyry copper deposits yield isotopic ratios (206Pb/204Pb = 18.678–18.723) that are generally less radiogenic than the host igneous rocks, but plot within the field defined by the sedimentary rocks from the Huetamo Sequence. Tertiary intrusive rocks from the Zimapan and La Negra districts in the Sierra Madre terrane plot above and to the right of the Stacey-Kramers reference line (206Pb/204Pb = 18.804–18.972). Lead isotope ratios of ore minerals from the Zimapan and La Negra skarn mines ( 206Pb/204Pb = 18.775–18.975) resemble those of the associated igneous rocks, implying a magmatic Pb input in the skarn deposits. New Sr and Nd isotope data on metamorphic rocks (87Sr/ 86Sr = 0.707757–0.726494 and 143Nd/144 Nd = 0.512109–0.512653) suggest that the basement of the Guerrero terrane originated from sources that had been derived from an old cratonic area. The narrow ranges and generally low 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.704860–0.705755) and 143Nd/144Nd values (0.512765–0.512772) above that of bulk earth for igneous rocks from Inguaran, El Malacate, and La Esmeralda suggest a relatively low degree of crustal contamination. However, the isotopic values for the La Verde site (87Sr/86Sr = 0.708784 and 143Nd/144Nd = 0.512640) may indicate the involvement of a more evolved crustal component.