Effects of roadway geometric features on run-off road crashes on the Florida State Highway System

Run-off-road (ROR) crashes have increasingly become a serious concern for transportation officials in the State of Florida. These types of crashes have increased proportionally in recent years statewide and have been the focus of the Florida Department of Transportation. The goal of this research was to develop statistical models that can be used to investigate the possible causal relationships between roadway geometric features and ROR crashes on Florida's rural and urban principal arterials. ^ In this research, Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) Regression models were used to better model the excessive number of roadway segments with no ROR crashes. Since Florida covers a diverse area and since there are sixty-seven counties, it was divided into four geographical regions to minimize possible unobserved heterogeneity. Three years of crash data (2000–2002) encompassing those for principal arterials on the Florida State Highway System were used. Several statistical models based on the ZIP and ZINB regression methods were fitted to predict the expected number of ROR crashes on urban and rural roads for each region. Each region was further divided into urban and rural areas, resulting in a total of eight crash models. A best-fit predictive model was identified for each of these eight models in terms of AIC values. The ZINB regression was found to be appropriate for seven of the eight models and the ZIP regression was found to be more appropriate for the remaining model. To achieve model convergence, some explanatory variables that were not statistically significant were included. Therefore, strong conclusions cannot be derived from some of these models. ^ Given the complex nature of crashes, recommendations for additional research are made. The interaction of weather and human condition would be quite valuable in discerning additional causal relationships for these types of crashes. Additionally, roadside data should be considered and incorporated into future research of ROR crashes. ^

Parental involvement: Its relation to achievement in a multiethnic sample of newly immigrated students

The current study examined how parental involvement is related to the academic adaptation and performance of a multiethnic sample of newly immigrant students from South America and the Caribbean---Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Haiti, and English-speaking Caribbean countries. Six hundred twenty-two participants attending elementary, middle and high school in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties were interviewed during two consecutive years at their respective schools. Parents completed surveys at home and returned them by mail. ^ Three forms of parent involvement were chosen as predictor variables---(1) parental contact and communication with school, (2) parental monitoring of children's school-related activities at home, and (3) parental expectations regarding children's academic achievement. Academic performance indicators obtained from school records were students' grade point averages for math and reading (GPA), FCAT-SSS (Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test-Sunshine State Standards) scores, and FCAT-NRT (Norm Referenced Test) scores. Hypotheses were (a) that the forms of parent involvement would differ across the different cultural groups and (b) that parent involvement would relate to students' achievement, regardless of the specific form of involvement. ^ Results indicated that Cuban and Colombian parents differed significantly in terms of monitoring school-related activities of their children and had higher expectations for their children than Haitian, West-Indian, or Argentinean parents. Cuban parents were more likely to be actively engaged in communication with their children's schools than parents of the other ethnic groups. Multiple regression analyses indicated that the three forms of parent involvement accounted for a significant proportion of GPA and FCAT-SSS scores, after controlling for the effects of demographic variables---grade level, gender, and ethnicity. Given interactions of the parent involvement variables by country of origin for GPA, separate analyses indicated that parent involvement appeared to be most effective for Cubans and West Indians. Results are discussed in terms of the need for experimental intervention studies to identify causal relationships between parent involvement and academic achievement. ^

A conceptual ecological model to facilitate understanding the role of invasive species in large-scale ecosystem restoration

We developed a conceptual ecological model (CEM) for invasive species to help understand the role invasive exotics have in ecosystem ecology and their impacts on restoration activities. Our model, which can be applied to any invasive species, grew from the eco-regional conceptual models developed for Everglades restoration. These models identify ecological drivers, stressors, effects and attributes; we integrated the unique aspects of exotic species invasions and effects into this conceptual hierarchy. We used the model to help identify important aspects of invasion in the development of an invasive exotic plant ecological indicator, which is described a companion paper in this special issue journal. A key aspect of the CEM is that it is a general ecological model that can be tailored to specific cases and species, as the details of any invasion are unique to that invasive species. Our model encompasses the temporal and spatial changes that characterize invasion, identifying the general conditions that allow a species to become invasive in a de novo environment; it then enumerates the possible effects exotic species may have collectively and individually at varying scales and for different ecosystem properties, once a species becomes invasive. The model provides suites of characteristics and processes, as well as hypothesized causal relationships to consider when thinking about the effects or potential effects of an invasive exotic and how restoration efforts will affect these characteristics and processes. In order to illustrate how to use the model as a blueprint for applying a similar approach to other invasive species and ecosystems, we give two examples of using this conceptual model to evaluate the status of two south Florida invasive exotic plant species (melaleuca and Old World climbing fern) and consider potential impacts of these invasive species on restoration.

Indirect and direct controls of macroinvertebrates and small fish by abiotic factors and trophic interactions in the Florida Everglades

1. The roles of nutrients, disturbance and predation in regulating consumer densities have long been of interest, but their indirect effects have rarely been quantified in wetland ecosystems. The Florida Everglades contains gradients of hydrological disturbance (marsh drying) and nutrient enrichment (phosphorus), often correlated with densities of macroinvertebrate infauna (macroinvertebrates inhabiting periphyton), small fish and larger invertebrates, such as snails, grass shrimp, insects and crayfish. However, most causal relationships have yet to be quantified. 2.  We sampled periphyton (content and community structure) and consumer (small omnivores, carnivores and herbivores, and infaunal macroinvertebrates inhabiting periphyton) density at 28 sites spanning a range of hydrological and nutrient conditions and compared our data to seven a priori structural equation models. 3.  The best model included bottom-up and top-down effects among trophic groups and supported top-down control of infauna by omnivores and predators that cascaded to periphyton biomass. The next best model included bottom-up paths only and allowed direct effects of periphyton on omnivore density. Both models suggested a positive relationship between small herbivores and small omnivores, indicating that predation was unable to limit herbivore numbers. Total effects of time following flooding were negative for all three consumer groups even when both preferred models suggested positive direct effects for some groups. Total effects of nutrient levels (phosphorus) were positive for consumers and generally larger than those of hydrological disturbance and were mediated by changes in periphyton content. 4.  Our findings provide quantitative support for indirect effects of nutrient enrichment on consumers, and the importance of both algal community structure and periphyton biomass to Everglades food webs. Evidence for top-down control of infauna by omnivores was noted, though without substantially greater support than a competing bottom-up-only model.

Differential effects of single -sex versus coed education on the mathematical reasoning ability, verbal reasoning ability, and self-concept of high school girls

This study explored the differential effects of single-sex versus coed education on the cognitive and affective development of young women in senior year of high school. The basic research question was: What are the differential effects of single-sex versus coed education on the development of mathematical reasoning ability, verbal reasoning ability, or self-concept of high school girls?^ This study was composed of two parts. In the first part, the SAT verbal and mathematical ability scores were recorded for those subjects in the two schools from which the sample populations were drawn. The second part of the study required the application of the Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale to subjects in each of the two sample populations. The sample schools were deliberately selected to minimize between group differences in the populations. One was an all girls school, the other coeducational.^ The research design employed in this study was the causal-comparative method, used to explore causal relationships between variables that already exist. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the data produced by this research, no significant difference was found to exist between the mean scores of the senior girls in the single-sex school and the coed school on the SAT 1 verbal reasoning section. Nor was any significant difference found to exist between the mean scores of the senior girls in the single-sex school and the coed school on the SAT 1 mathematical reasoning section. Finally, no significant difference between the mean total scores of the senior girls in the single-sex school and the coed school on the Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale was found to exist.^ Contrary to what many other studies have found in the past about single-sex schools and their advantages for girls, this study found no support for such advantages in the cognitive areas of verbal and mathematical reasoning as measured by the SAT or in the affective area of self-concept as measured by the Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale. ^

The relationship between the secondary mathematics curriculum, college persistence, and success at an urban community college

According to Venezia, Kirst, and Antonio (2003) and Barth’s 2002 Thinking K16 Ticket to Nowhere report, the disconnect between K-12 and postsecondary education was a contributing factor to high attrition rates. Since mathematics emerged as a primary concern for college readiness, Barth (2002) called for improving student transitions from K-12 to postsecondary institutions through the use of state or local data. The purpose of the present study was to analyze mathematics course-taking patterns of secondary students in a local context and to evaluate high school characteristics in order to explore their relationships with Associate degree attainment or continuous enrollment at an urban community college. Also, this study extended a national study conducted by Clifford Adelman (The Toolbox Revisited, 2006) as it specifically focused on community college students that were not included his study. Furthermore, this study used the theoretical framework that human capital, social capital, and cultural capital influence habitus—an individual’s or a group’s learned inclination to behave within the parameters of the imposed prevailing culture and norms. Specifically, the school embedded culture as it relates to tracking worked as a reproduction tool of ultimate benefit for the privileged group (Oakes, 1994). ^ Using multilevel analysis, this ex post facto study examined non-causal relationships between math course-taking patterns and college persistence of public high school graduates who enrolled at the local community college for up to 6 years. One school-level variable (percent of racial/ethnic minorities) and 7 student-level variables (community college math proportion, remedial math attempts, race, gender, first-year credits earned, socioeconomic status, and summer credits earned) emerged as predictors for college persistence. Study results indicated that students who enter higher education at the community college may have had lower opportunities to learn and therefore needed higher levels of remediation, which was shown to detract students from degree completion. Community college leaders are called to partner with local high schools with high percentages of racial/ethnic minorities to design academic programs aimed at improving the academic preparation of high school students in mathematics and promote student engagement during the first year and summers of college. ^

Examining moderators of the hindsight bias in the context of civil legal decision -making: Counterfactuals, causal proximity, and self -referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. ^ In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. ^ Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.^

Examining Moderators of the Hindsight Bias in the Context of Civil Legal Decision-Making: Counterfactuals, Causal Proximity, and Self-Referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.