Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

Nonlinear dynamics and chaos simulation system analysis for improved design

Small errors proved catastrophic. Our purpose to remark that a very small cause which escapes our notice determined a considerable effect that we cannot fail to see, and then we say that the effect is due to chance. Small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the latter. When dealing with any kind of electrical device specification, it is important to note that there exists a pair of test conditions that define a test: the forcing function and the limit. Forcing functions define the external operating constraints placed upon the device tested. The actual test defines how well the device responds to these constraints. Forcing inputs to threshold for example, represents the most difficult testing because this put those inputs as close as possible to the actual switching critical points and guarantees that the device will meet the Input-Output specifications. ^ Prediction becomes impossible by classical analytical analysis bounded by Newton and Euclides. We have found that non linear dynamics characteristics is the natural state of being in all circuits and devices. Opportunities exist for effective error detection in a nonlinear dynamics and chaos environment. ^ Nowadays there are a set of linear limits established around every aspect of a digital or analog circuits out of which devices are consider bad after failing the test. Deterministic chaos circuit is a fact not a possibility as it has been revived by our Ph.D. research. In practice for linear standard informational methodologies, this chaotic data product is usually undesirable and we are educated to be interested in obtaining a more regular stream of output data. ^ This Ph.D. research explored the possibilities of taking the foundation of a very well known simulation and modeling methodology, introducing nonlinear dynamics and chaos precepts, to produce a new error detector instrument able to put together streams of data scattered in space and time. Therefore, mastering deterministic chaos and changing the bad reputation of chaotic data as a potential risk for practical system status determination. ^

The acceptability and utility of voir dire questionnaires in Florida Circuit Civil Court

This study examined the acceptability and utility of the content of an extensive automobile tort voir dire questionnaire in Florida Circuit Civil Court. The ultimate purpose was to find questionnaire items from established measures that have demonstrated utility in uncovering biases that were at the same time not objectionable to the courts. The survey instrument included a venireperson questionnaire that used case-specific attitudinal and personality measures as well as typical information asked about personal history. The venireperson questionnaire incorporated measures that have proven reliable in other personal injury studies (Hans, & Lofquist, 1994). In order to examine judges' ratings, the questionnaire items were grouped into eight categories. Claims Consciousness scale measures general attitudes towards making claims based on one's legal rights. Belief in a Just World measures how sympathetic the juror would be to people who have suffered injuries. Political Efficacy is another general attitude scale that identifies attitudes towards the government. Litigation Crisis scales elicits attitudes about civil litigation. Case Specific Beliefs about Automobile Accidents and Litigation were taken from questionnaires developed and used in auto torts and other personal injury cases. Juror's personal history was divided into Demographics and Trial Relevant Attitudes. Ninety-seven circuit civil judges critiqued the questionnaire for acceptability, relevance to the type of case presented, and usefulness to attorneys for determining peremptories. ^ The majority of judges' responses confirmed that the central dimension in judicial thinking is juror qualification rather than juror partiality. Only three of the eight voir dire categories were considered relevant by more than 50 percent of the judges: Trial Relevant Experiences, Juror Demographics, and Tort Reform. Additionally, several acceptable items from generally disapproved categories were identified among the responses. These were general and case specific attitudinal items that are related to tort reform. We discuss the utility of voir dire items for discerning juror partiality. ^

Dynamic job quoting system for printed circuit board fabrication

This research deals with the development of a dynamic job quotation system for printed circuit board (PCB) fabrication, which can estimate the price and completion time of a job based on customer preference and current capacity of the shop floor. The primary purpose of building a dynamic quotation system is to maximize the company's profit by quoting optimum lead-time and competitive price for the day-to-day orders received from different customers and original equipment manufacturers. The system was developed using MS-Access relational database. Evaluating the output of the system it was observed that the dynamic system provided more reliable estimation of the lead-time needed for fabricating new jobs. The overall price quoted by the system was competitive with higher profit margin when compared to traditional static systems. This system would therefore provide a vital link between the job quoting and scheduling system of the firm enabling better utilization of the available resources.