Exchange rate overvaluation under hyperinflation: The case of Peru

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^

Consolidating Security and Development in Colombia: Lessons for Peru and Panama

Colombia's increasingly effective efforts to mitigate the power of the FARC and other illegitimately armed groups in the country can offer important lessons for the Peruvian government as it strives to prevent a resurgence of Sendero Luminoso and other illegal non-state actors. Both countries share certain particular challenges: deep economic, social, and in the case of Peru ethnic divisions, the presence of and/or the effects of violent insurgencies, a large-scale narcotics production and trafficking, and a history of weak state presence in large tracts of isolated and scarcely-populated areas. Important differences exist, however in the nature of the insurgencies in the two countries, the government response to them and the nature of government and society that affects the applicability of Colombia's experience to Peru. The security threat to Panama from drug trafficking and Colombian insurgents --often a linked phenomenon-- are in many ways different from the drug/insurgent factor in Colombia itself and in Peru, although there are similar variables. Unlike the Colombian and Peruvian cases, the security threat in Panama is not directed against the state, there are no domestic elements seeking to overthrow the government -- as the case of the FARC and Sendero Luminoso, security problems have not spilled over from rural to urban areas in Panama, and there is no ideological component at play in driving the threat. Nor is drug cultivation a major factor in Panama as it is in Colombia and Peru. The key variable that is shared among all three cases is the threat of extra-state actors controlling remote rural areas or small towns where state presence is minimal. The central lesson learned from Colombia is the need to define and then address the key problem of a "sovereignity gap," lack of legitimate state presence in many part of the country. Colombia's success in broadening the presence of the national government between 2002 and the presence is owed to many factors, including an effective national strategy, improvements in the armed forces and police, political will on the part of government for a sustained effort, citizen buy-in to the national strategy, including the resolve of the elite to pay more in taxes to bring change about, and the adoption of a sequenced approach to consolidated development in conflicted areas. Control of territory and effective state presence improved citizen security, strengthened confidence in democracy and the legitimate state, promoted economic development, and helped mitigate the effect of illegal drugs. Peru can benefit from the Colombian experience especially in terms of the importance of legitimate state authority, improved institutions, gaining the support of local citizens, and furthering development to wean communities away from drugs. State coordinated "integration" efforts in Peru as practiced in Colombia have the potential for success if properly calibrated to Peruvian reality, coordinated within government, and provided with sufficient resources. Peru's traditionally weak political institutions and lack of public confidence in the state in many areas of the country must be overcome if this effort is to be successful.

Neglected Masterpieces of Cinema

This article will acquaint you with ten of the more important leftwing films I have reviewed over the past sixteen years as a member of New York Film Critics Online. You will not see listed familiar works such as “The Battle of Algiers” but instead those that deserve wider attention, the proverbial neglected masterpieces. They originate from different countries and are available through Internet streaming, either freely from Youtube or through Netflix or Amazon rental. In several instances you will be referred to film club websites that like the films under discussion deserve wider attention since they are the counterparts to the small, independent theaters where such films get premiered. The country of origin, date and director will be identified next to the title, followed by a summary of the film, and finally by its availability.

Metahistoria nacional y metaficcion biografica en "Historia de Mayta", de Mario Vargas Llosa

The thesis explores Mario Vargas Llosa's Historia de Mayta in light of recent studies of Latin America's new historical novel (Menton, Juan-Navarro) and in connection with contemporary literary theory (Waugh, Stonehill) and new trends in the philosophy of history (White, Foucault). In my study, I focus on three major levels of analysis: (1) significant events in Peruvian history to which the novel alludes; (2) biographical elements that strongly evoke the lives of Ernesto "Che" Guevara, Jacinto Renteria, and Vargas Llosa himself; and (3) the self-referential devices that aim at questioning the validity of empirical analysis in both fiction and history. The allegorical dimension of the novel's view of modern Peruvian politics, its biographical component, and the self-consciousness of its historiographic approach make of Historia de Mayta both a metahistory of Peru and a biographical metafiction. The thesis ultimately reveals the problematic borderline between fiction and reality, the novel and history.

U.S. Army front line artillery observation during the 1945 Okinawa campaign: An oral history case study

This dissertation explores the role of artillery forward observation teams during the battle of Okinawa (April–June 1945). It addresses a variety of questions associated with this front line artillery support. First, it examines the role of artillery itself in the American victory over the Japanese on Okinawa. Second, it traces the history of the forward observer in the three decades before the end of World War II. Third, it defines the specific role of the forward observation teams during the battle: what they did and how they did it during this three-month duel. Fourth, it deals with the particular problems of the forward observer. These included coordination with the local infantry commander, adjusting to the periodic rotation between the front lines and the artillery battery behind the line of battle, responding to occasional problems with "friendly fire" (American artillery falling on American ground forces), dealing with personnel turnover in the teams (due to death, wounds, and illness), and finally, developing a more informal relationship between officers and enlisted men to accommodate the reality of this recently created combat assignment. Fifth, it explores the experiences of a select group of men who served on (or in proximity to) forward observation teams on Okinawa. Previous scholars and popular historians of the battle have emphasized the role of Marines, infantrymen, and flame-throwing armor. This work offers a different perspective on the battle and it uses new sources as well. A pre-existing archive of interviews with Okinawan campaign forward observer team members conducted in the 1990s forms the core of the oral history component of this research project. The verbal accounts were checked against and supplemented by a review of unit reports obtained from the U.S. National Archives and various secondary sources. The dissertation concludes that an understanding of American artillery observation is critical to a more complete comprehension of the battle of Okinawa. These mid-ranking (and largely middle class) soldiers proved capable of adjusting to the demands of combat conditions. They provide a unique and understudied perspective of the entire battle.

Peru’s Shining Path: Recent Dynamics and Future Prospects

Although soundly defeated in the early to mid-1990s, Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) did not disappear. Over the past five years, it has reemerged in a substantially different form, with both a military and a political component. The organization, once again coordinated by jailed leader Abimael Guzmán Reynoso, has eschewed shorter-term military objectives in favor of a longer-term strategy of slowly rebuilding popular support and establishing a party within the Peruvian political system. In so doing, it has also moved from extreme Maoist ideological rigidity to a more pragmatic, though perhaps only tactical, approach. Financial support is derived once again from cocaine production and trafficking in the Upper Huallaga Valley (UHV). Although there may be some individual exceptions, Shining Path is not a narcoterrorist organization. At the same time, Sendero is still very small, in no way a threat to the Peruvian state, and divided. The Lima-based political organization and the military wing in the UHV continue to follow Guzmán‟s leadership, while the Apurímac-Ene Valleys (VRAE) group remains committed to the armed struggle. The Government of Peru (GOP) response to date, both military and civilian, has been inadequate. VRAE military operations are hampered by poor leadership, ill-trained troops, and an outdated strategy. VRAE development resources have been cut, and the long-promised paved road remains in the planning stage. Without significant GOP adjustments, Shining Path is likely to continue to grow.

An incident at sea: The historic combat between U.S. Navy Blimp K-74 and U-Boat 134

This thesis studies the historic encounter between United States Navy airship K-74 and Nazi submarine U-134 in World War II. The Battle of the Atlantic is examined through case study of this one U-boat and its voyage. In all things except her fight with the American blimp, the patrol was perfectly typical. Looked at from start to finish, both her reports and the reports of the Allies encountered, many realities of the war can be studied. U-134 sailed to attack shipping between Florida and Cuba. She was challenged by the attack of United States Navy airship K-74 over the Florida Straits. It is the only documented instance of battle between two such combatants in history. That merits attention. Thesis finding disprove historian William Eliot Morison’s contention that the K-74 airship bombs were not dropped and did not damage the U-boat. Study of this U-boat and its antagonist broadens our understanding of the Battle of the Atlantic. It is a contribution to our knowledge of military, naval, aviation, and local history.