Estimation of average annual daily traffic (AADT) using geographically weighted regression (GWR) method and geographic information system (GIS)

Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is important information for many transportation planning, design, operation, and maintenance activities, as well as for the allocation of highway funds. Many studies have attempted AADT estimation using factor approach, regression analysis, time series, and artificial neural networks. However, these methods are unable to account for spatially variable influence of independent variables on the dependent variable even though it is well known that to many transportation problems, including AADT estimation, spatial context is important. ^ In this study, applications of geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods to estimating AADT were investigated. The GWR based methods considered the influence of correlations among the variables over space and the spatially non-stationarity of the variables. A GWR model allows different relationships between the dependent and independent variables to exist at different points in space. In other words, model parameters vary from location to location and the locally linear regression parameters at a point are affected more by observations near that point than observations further away. ^ The study area was Broward County, Florida. Broward County lies on the Atlantic coast between Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. In this study, a total of 67 variables were considered as potential AADT predictors, and six variables (lanes, speed, regional accessibility, direct access, density of roadway length, and density of seasonal household) were selected to develop the models. ^ To investigate the predictive powers of various AADT predictors over the space, the statistics including local r-square, local parameter estimates, and local errors were examined and mapped. The local variations in relationships among parameters were investigated, measured, and mapped to assess the usefulness of GWR methods. ^ The results indicated that the GWR models were able to better explain the variation in the data and to predict AADT with smaller errors than the ordinary linear regression models for the same dataset. Additionally, GWR was able to model the spatial non-stationarity in the data, i.e., the spatially varying relationship between AADT and predictors, which cannot be modeled in ordinary linear regression. ^

Ecological genetics of Melaleuca quinquenervia (Myrtaceae): Population variation in Florida and its influence on performance of the biological control agent Oxyops vitiosa (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (Myrtaceae) was imported into Florida from Australia over a century ago as a landscape plant. A favorable climate and periodic wildfires helped M. quinquenervia thrive; it now occupies about 200,000 hectares in southern Florida. A biological control (i.e., biocontrol) program against M. quinquenervia has been initiated, but not all biocontrol releases are successful. Some scientists have argued that poor biocontrol agent success may relate to genetic differences among populations of invasive weeds. I tested this premise by determining (1) the number and origins of M. quinquenervia introductions into Florida, (2) whether multiple introduction events resulted in the partitioning of Florida's M. quinquenervia populations into discrete biotypes, and (3) whether Oxyops vitiosa, an Australia snout beetle imported to control this weed, might discriminate among putative M. quinquenervia biotypes. Careful scrutiny of early horticultural catalogs and USDA plant introduction records suggested at least six distinct introduction events. Allozyme analyses indicated that the pattern of these introductions, and the subsequent redistribution of progeny, has resulted in geographic structuring of the populations in southern Florida. For example, trees on Florida's Gulf Coast had a greater effective number of alleles and exhibited greater heterozygosity than trees on the Atlantic Coast. Essential oil yields from M. quinquenervia leaves followed a similar trend; Gulf Coast trees yielded nearly twice as much oil as Atlantic Coast trees when both were grown in a common garden. These differences were partially explained by the predominance of a chemical phenotype (chemotype) very rich in the sesquiterpene (E)-nerolidol in M. quinquenervia trees from the Gulf Coast, but rich in a mixture of the monoterpene 1,8-cineole and the sesquiterpene viridiflorol in trees from the Atlantic Coast. Performance of O. vitiosa differed dramatically in laboratory studies depending on the chemotype of the foliage they were fed. Larval survivorship was four-fold greater on the (E)-nerolidol chemotype. Growth was also greater, with adult O. vitiosa gaining nearly 50% more biomass on the (E)-nerolidol plants than on the second chemotype. The results of this study thus confirmed the premise that plant genotype can affect the population dynamics of insects released as weed biocontrols. ^

Surface mean flow and turbulence structure in tropical cyclone winds

Hurricanes are one of the deadliest and costliest natural hazards affecting the Gulf coast and Atlantic coast areas of the United States. An effective way to minimize hurricane damage is to strengthen structures and buildings. The investigation of surface level hurricane wind behavior and the resultant wind loads on structures is aimed at providing structural engineers with information on hurricane wind characteristics required for the design of safe structures. Information on mean wind profiles, gust factors, turbulence intensity, integral scale, and turbulence spectra and co-spectra is essential for developing realistic models of wind pressure and wind loads on structures. The research performed for this study was motivated by the fact that considerably fewer data and validated models are available for tropical than for extratropical storms. ^ Using the surface wind measurements collected by the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP) during hurricane passages over coastal areas, this study presents comparisons of surface roughness length estimates obtained by using several estimation methods, and estimates of the mean wind and turbulence structure of hurricane winds over coastal areas under neutral stratification conditions. In addition, a program has been developed and tested to systematically analyze Wall of Wind (WoW) data, that will make it possible to perform analyses of baseline characteristics of flow obtained in the WoW. This program can be used in future research to compare WoW data with FCMP data, as gust and turbulence generator systems and other flow management devices will be used to create WoW flows that match as closely as possible real hurricane wind conditions. ^ Hurricanes are defined as tropical cyclones for which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind speeds exceed 74 mph. FCMP data include data for tropical cyclones with lower sustained speeds. However, for the winds analyzed in this study the speeds were sufficiently high to assure that neutral stratification prevailed. This assures that the characteristics of those winds are similar to those prevailing in hurricanes. For this reason in this study the terms tropical cyclones and hurricanes are used interchangeably. ^

Surface Mean Flow and Turbulence Structure in Tropical Cyclone Winds

Hurricanes are one of the deadliest and costliest natural hazards affecting the Gulf coast and Atlantic coast areas of the United States. An effective way to minimize hurricane damage is to strengthen structures and buildings. The investigation of surface level hurricane wind behavior and the resultant wind loads on structures is aimed at providing structural engineers with information on hurricane wind characteristics required for the design of safe structures. Information on mean wind profiles, gust factors, turbulence intensity, integral scale, and turbulence spectra and co-spectra is essential for developing realistic models of wind pressure and wind loads on structures. The research performed for this study was motivated by the fact that considerably fewer data and validated models are available for tropical than for extratropical storms. Using the surface wind measurements collected by the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP) during hurricane passages over coastal areas, this study presents comparisons of surface roughness length estimates obtained by using several estimation methods, and estimates of the mean wind and turbulence structure of hurricane winds over coastal areas under neutral stratification conditions. In addition, a program has been developed and tested to systematically analyze Wall of Wind (WoW) data, that will make it possible to perform analyses of baseline characteristics of flow obtained in the WoW. This program can be used in future research to compare WoW data with FCMP data, as gust and turbulence generator systems and other flow management devices will be used to create WoW flows that match as closely as possible real hurricane wind conditions. Hurricanes are defined as tropical cyclones for which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind speeds exceed 74 mph. FCMP data include data for tropical cyclones with lower sustained speeds. However, for the winds analyzed in this study the speeds were sufficiently high to assure that neutral stratification prevailed. This assures that the characteristics of those winds are similar to those prevailing in hurricanes. For this reason in this study the terms tropical cyclones and hurricanes are used interchangeably.

Impact of Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence from diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Impact of Late Holocene Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence From Diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Atlantic Ais in the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries: Maritime Adaptation, Indigenous Wrecking, and Buccaneer Raids on Florida’s Central East Coast

The Ais were a Native American group who lived along the Atlantic shoreline of Florida south of Cape Canaveral. This coastal population’s position adjacent to a major shipping route afforded them numerous encounters with the Atlantic world that linked Europe, Africa, the Caribbean, and the Americas. Through their exploitation of the goods and peoples from the European shipwrecks thrown ashore, coupled with their careful manipulation of other Atlantic contacts, the Ais polity established an influential domain in central east Florida during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The pre-contact peoples of Florida’s east coast, including the ancestors of the Ais, practiced a maritime adaptation concentrated on the exploitation of their bountiful riverine, estuarine, and marine environments. The Ais then modified their maritime skills to cope with the opportunities and challenges that accompanied European contact. Using their existing aquatic abilities, they ably salvaged goods and castaways from the Spanish, French, English, and Dutch vessels dashed on the rocks and reefs of Florida’s coast. The Ais’ strategic redistribution of these materials and peoples to other Florida Native Americans, the Spaniards of St. Augustine, and other passing Europeans gained them greater influence. This process, which I call indigenous wrecking, enabled the Ais to expand their domain on the peninsula. Coastal Florida Native Americans’ maritime abilities also attracted the attention of Europeans. In the late seventeenth century, English buccaneers and salvagers raided Florida’s east coast to capture indigenous divers, whom they sent to work the wreck of a sunken Spanish treasure ship located in the Bahamas. The English subsequently sold the surviving Native American captives to other Caribbean slave markets. Despite population losses to such raids, the Ais and other peoples of the east coast thrived on Atlantic exchange and used their existing maritime adaptation to resist colonial intrusions until the start of the eighteenth century. This dissertation thus offers a narrative about Native Americans and the Atlantic that is unlike most Southeastern Indian stories. The Ais used their maritime adaptation and the process of indigenous wrecking to engage and exploit the arriving Atlantic world. In the contact era, the Ais truly became Atlantic Ais.

Characterization of Atlantic Cod Spawning Habitat and Behavior in Icelandic Coastal Waters

The physical habitat used during spawning may potentially be an important factor affecting reproductive output of broadcast spawning marine fishes, particularly for species with complex, substrate-oriented mating systems and behaviors, such as Atlantic cod Gadus morhua. We characterized the habitat use and behavior of spawning Atlantic cod at two locations off the coast of southwestern Iceland during a 2-d research cruise (15–16 April 2009). We simultaneously operated two different active hydroacoustic gear types, a split beam echosounder and a dual frequency imaging sonar (DIDSON), as well as a remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV). A total of five fish species were identified through ROV surveys: including cusk Brosme brosme, Atlantic cod, haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus, lemon sole Microstomus kitt, and Atlantic redfish Sebastes spp. Of the three habitats identified in the acoustic surveys, the transitional habitat between boulder/lava field and sand habitats was characterized by greater fish density and acoustic target strength compared to that of sand or boulder/lava field habitats independently. Atlantic cod were observed behaving in a manner consistent with published descriptions of spawning. Individuals were observed ascending 1–5 m into the water column from the bottom at an average vertical swimming speed of 0.20–0.25 m s−1 and maintained an average spacing of 1.0–1.4 m between individuals. Our results suggest that cod do not choose spawning locations indiscriminately despite the fact that it is a broadcast spawning fish with planktonic eggs that are released well above the seafloor.

Intraspecific relationships in Paracalanus quasimodo [Calinoideae] and Temora turbinata [Calinoideae] along the southeastern coast of the United States

Paracalanus quasimodo and Temora turbinata are two calanoid copepods prominent in the planktonic communities of the southeastern United States. Despite their prominence, the species and population level structure of these copepods is yet unexplored. The phylogeographic, temporal and phylogenetic structure of P. quasimodo and T. turbinata are examined in my study. Samples were collected from ten sites along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsular coasts. Three sites were sampled quarterly for two years. Individuals were screened for unique ITS-1 sequences with denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Unique variants were sequenced at the nuclear ITS-1 and mitochondrial COI loci. Sampling sites were analyzed for pairwise community differences and for variances between geographic and temporal groupings. Genetic variants were analyzed for phylogenetic and coalescent topology. Paracalanus quasimodo is highly structured geographically with populations divided between the Gulf of Mexico, temperate Atlantic and subtropical Atlantic, in addition to isolation by distance. No significant differences were detected between the T. turbinata samples. Both P. quasimodo and T. turbinata are stable within sites over time and between sites within a sampling period, with two exceptions. The first was a pilot sample from Miami taken two years prior to the general sampling whose community showed significant differences from most of the other Miami samples. Paracalanus quasimodo had a positive correlation of Fst with time. The second was high temporal variability detected in the samples from Fort Pierce. Phylogenetically, both P. quasimodo and T. turbinata were in well supported, congeneric clades. Paracalanus quasimodo was not monophyletic, divided into two well-supported clades. Temora turbinata variants were in one clade with insignificant support for topology within the clade and very little intraspecific variation. Paracalanus quasimodo and T. turbinata populations show opposite trends. Paracalanus quasimodo occurs near shore and shows population structure mediated by hydrological features and distance, both geographic and temporal. The phylogeny shows two deeply divergent clades suggestive of cryptic speciation. In contrast, T. turbinata populations range further offshore and show little geographic or temporal structure. However, the low genetic variation detected in this region suggests a recent bottleneck event.

Does U.S counter-drug policy affect nationalism in the Anglophone Caribbean? A comparative study on the impact of counter-drug policy on nationalism in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

This dissertation examined the effect of United States counter-drug policy on nationalism in small states, focusing on Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. The states were selected for their roles and geostrategic importance in the illegal drug trade; Jamaica being the largest drug producing country in the Anglophone Caribbean and having strong links to the trade of Colombian cocaine, and Trinidad being a mere seven miles from the South American coast. Since U.S. counterdrug policies have frequently been viewed in the region as imperialistic, this dovetails into ideas on the perceptions of smallness and powerlessness of Caribbean nations. Hence, U.S. drug policies affect every vulnerability faced by the Caribbean, individually and collectively. Thus, U.S. drug policy was deemed the most appropriate independent variable, with nationalism as the dependent variable. In both countries four Focus Groups and one Delphi Study were conducted resulting in a total of 60 participants. Focus Group participants, recruited from the general population, were asked about their perception of the illegal drug trade in the country and the policies their government had created. They were also asked their perception on how deeply involved the U.S. was in the creation of these policies and their opinions on whether this involvement was positive or negative. The Delphi Study participants were experts in the field of local drug policies and also gave their interpretations of the role the U.S. played in local policy creation. Coupled with this data, content analysis was conducted on various newspaper articles, press releases, and speeches made regarding the topic. In comparing both countries, it was found that there is a disconnect between government actions and the knowledge and perceptions of the general public. In Trinidad and Tobago this disconnect was more apparent given the lack of awareness of local drug policies and the utter lack of faith in government solutions. The emerging conclusion was that the impact of U.S. drug policy on nationalism was more visible in Trinidad and Tobago where there was a weaker civil society-government relationship, while the impact on nationalism was more obscure in Jamaica, which had a stronger civil-society government relationship.

An incident at sea: The historic combat between U.S. Navy Blimp K-74 and U-Boat 134

This thesis studies the historic encounter between United States Navy airship K-74 and Nazi submarine U-134 in World War II. The Battle of the Atlantic is examined through case study of this one U-boat and its voyage. In all things except her fight with the American blimp, the patrol was perfectly typical. Looked at from start to finish, both her reports and the reports of the Allies encountered, many realities of the war can be studied. U-134 sailed to attack shipping between Florida and Cuba. She was challenged by the attack of United States Navy airship K-74 over the Florida Straits. It is the only documented instance of battle between two such combatants in history. That merits attention. Thesis finding disprove historian William Eliot Morison’s contention that the K-74 airship bombs were not dropped and did not damage the U-boat. Study of this U-boat and its antagonist broadens our understanding of the Battle of the Atlantic. It is a contribution to our knowledge of military, naval, aviation, and local history.

Intraspecific Relationships in Paracalanus quasimodo [Calinoideae] and Temora turbinata [Calinoideae] along the Southeastern Coast of the United States

Paracalanus quasimodo and Temora turbinata are two calanoid copepods prominent in the planktonic communities of the southeastern United States. Despite their prominence, the species and population level structure of these copepods is yet unexplored. The phylogeographic, temporal and phylogenetic structure of P. quasimodo and T. turbinata are examined in my study. Samples were collected from ten sites along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsular coasts. Three sites were sampled quarterly for two years. Individuals were screened for unique ITS-1 sequences with denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Unique variants were sequenced at the nuclear ITS-1 and mitochondrial COI loci. Sampling sites were analyzed for pairwise community differences and for variances between geographic and temporal groupings. Genetic variants were analyzed for phylogenetic and coalescent topology. Paracalanus quasimodo is highly structured geographically with populations divided between the Gulf of Mexico, temperate Atlantic and subtropical Atlantic, in addition to isolation by distance. No significant differences were detected between the T. turbinata samples. Both P. quasimodo and T. turbinata are stable within sites over time and between sites within a sampling period, with two exceptions. The first was a pilot sample from Miami taken two years prior to the general sampling whose community showed significant differences from most of the other Miami samples. Paracalanus quasimodo had a positive correlation of Fst with time. The second was high temporal variability detected in the samples from Fort Pierce. Phylogenetically, both P. quasimodo and T. turbinata were in well supported, congeneric clades. Paracalanus quasimodo was not monophyletic, divided into two well-supported clades. Temora turbinata variants were in one clade with insignificant support for topology within the clade and very little intraspecific variation. Paracalanus quasimodo and T. turbinata populations show opposite trends. Paracalanus quasimodo occurs near shore and shows population structure mediated by hydrological features and distance, both geographic and temporal. The phylogeny shows two deeply divergent clades suggestive of cryptic speciation. In contrast, T. turbinata populations range further offshore and show little geographic or temporal structure. However, the low genetic variation detected in this region suggests a recent bottleneck event.