Juror need for cognition and sensitivity to methodological flaws in expert evidence

Two studies investigated the influence of juror need for cognition on the systematic and heuristic processing of expert evidence. U.S. citizens reporting for jury duty in South Florida read a 15-page summary of a hostile work environment case containing expert testimony. The expert described a study she had conducted on the effects of viewing sexualized materials on men's behavior toward women. Certain methodological features of the expert's research varied across experimental conditions. In Study 1 (N = 252), the expert's study was valid, contained a confound, or included the potential for experimenter bias (internal validity) and relied on a small or large sample (sample size) of college undergraduates or trucking employees (ecological validity). When the expert's study included trucking employees, high need for cognition jurors in Study 1 rated the expert more credible and trustworthy than did low need for cognition jurors. Jurors were insensitive to variations in the study's internal validity or sample size. Juror ratings of plaintiff credibility, plaintiff trustworthiness, and study quality were positively correlated with verdict. In Study 2 (N = 162), the expert's published or unpublished study (general acceptance) was either valid or lacked an appropriate control group (internal validity) and included a sample of college undergraduates or trucking employees (ecological validity). High need for cognition jurors in Study 2 found the defendant liable more often and evaluated the expert evidence more favorably when the expert's study was internally valid than when an appropriate control group was missing. Low need for cognition jurors did not differentiate between the internally valid and invalid study. Variations in the study's general acceptance and ecological validity did not affect juror judgments. Juror ratings of expert and plaintiff credibility, plaintiff trustworthiness, and study quality were positively correlated with verdict. The present research demonstrated that the need for cognition moderates juror sensitivity to expert evidence quality and that certain message-related heuristics influence juror judgments when ability or motivation to process systematically is low. ^

A methodological framework for modeling pavement maintenance costs for projects with performance-based contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Participation in a positive youth development program and multi -problem alternative high school students' transformative goals: An investigation of the theoretical and methodological utility and validity of the Transformative Goal Attainment (TGAS)

There is a growing body of literature that provides evidence for the efficacy of positive youth development programs in general and preliminary empirical support for the efficacy of the Changing Lives Program (CLP) in particular. This dissertation sought to extend previous efforts to develop and preliminarily examine the Transformative Goal Attainment Scale (TGAS) as a measure of participant empowerment in the promotion of positive development. Consistent with recent advances in the use of qualitative research methods, this dissertation sought to further investigate the utility of Relational Data Analysis (RDA) for providing categorizations of qualitative open-ended response data. In particular, a qualitative index of Transformative Goals, TG, was developed to complement the previously developed quantitative index of Transformative Goal Attainment (TGA), and RDA procedures for calculating reliability and content validity were refined. Second, as a Stage I pilot/feasibility study this study preliminarily examined the potentially mediating role of empowerment, as indexed by the TGAS, in the promotion of positive development. ^ Fifty-seven participants took part in this study, forty CLP intervention participants and seventeen control condition participants. All 57 participants were administered the study's measures just prior to and just following the fall 2003 semester. This study thus used a short-term longitudinal quasi-experimental research design with a comparison control group. ^ RDA procedures were refined and applied to the categorization of open-ended response data regarding participants' transformative goals (TG) and future possible selves (PSQ-QE). These analyses revealed relatively strong, indirect evidence for the construct validity of the categories as well as their theoretically meaningful structural organization, thereby providing sufficient support for the utility of RDA procedures in the categorization of qualitative open-ended response data. ^ In addition, transformative goals (TG) and future possible selves (PSQ-QE), and the quantitative index of perceived goal attainment (TGA) were evaluated as potential mediators of positive development by testing their relationships to other indices of positive intervention outcome within a four-step method involving both analysis of variance (ANOVA and RMANOVAs) and regression analysis. Though more limited in scope than the efforts at the development and refinement of the measures of these mediators, the results were also promising. ^

A Methodological Framework for Modeling Pavement Maintenance Costs for Projects with Performance-based Contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.