Principal component and second generation wavelet analysis of Treasury yield curve evolution

Prices of U.S. Treasury securities vary over time and across maturities. When the market in Treasurys is sufficiently complete and frictionless, these prices may be modeled by a function time and maturity. A cross-section of this function for time held fixed is called the yield curve; the aggregate of these sections is the evolution of the yield curve. This dissertation studies aspects of this evolution. ^ There are two complementary approaches to the study of yield curve evolution here. The first is principal components analysis; the second is wavelet analysis. In both approaches both the time and maturity variables are discretized. In principal components analysis the vectors of yield curve shifts are viewed as observations of a multivariate normal distribution. The resulting covariance matrix is diagonalized; the resulting eigenvalues and eigenvectors (the principal components) are used to draw inferences about the yield curve evolution. ^ In wavelet analysis, the vectors of shifts are resolved into hierarchies of localized fundamental shifts (wavelets) that leave specified global properties invariant (average change and duration change). The hierarchies relate to the degree of localization with movements restricted to a single maturity at the base and general movements at the apex. Second generation wavelet techniques allow better adaptation of the model to economic observables. Statistically, the wavelet approach is inherently nonparametric while the wavelets themselves are better adapted to describing a complete market. ^ Principal components analysis provides information on the dimension of the yield curve process. While there is no clear demarkation between operative factors and noise, the top six principal components pick up 99% of total interest rate variation 95% of the time. An economically justified basis of this process is hard to find; for example a simple linear model will not suffice for the first principal component and the shape of this component is nonstationary. ^ Wavelet analysis works more directly with yield curve observations than principal components analysis. In fact the complete process from bond data to multiresolution is presented, including the dedicated Perl programs and the details of the portfolio metrics and specially adapted wavelet construction. The result is more robust statistics which provide balance to the more fragile principal components analysis. ^

Algebraic theory of minimal nondeterministic finite automata with applications

Since the 1950s, the theory of deterministic and nondeterministic finite automata (DFAs and NFAs, respectively) has been a cornerstone of theoretical computer science. In this dissertation, our main object of study is minimal NFAs. In contrast with minimal DFAs, minimal NFAs are computationally challenging: first, there can be more than one minimal NFA recognizing a given language; second, the problem of converting an NFA to a minimal equivalent NFA is NP-hard, even for NFAs over a unary alphabet. Our study is based on the development of two main theories, inductive bases and partials, which in combination form the foundation for an incremental algorithm, ibas, to find minimal NFAs. An inductive basis is a collection of languages with the property that it can generate (through union) each of the left quotients of its elements. We prove a fundamental characterization theorem which says that a language can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element inductive basis. A partial is an incompletely-specified language. We say that an NFA recognizes a partial if its language extends the partial, meaning that the NFA’s behavior is unconstrained on unspecified strings; it follows that a minimal NFA for a partial is also minimal for its language. We therefore direct our attention to minimal NFAs recognizing a given partial. Combining inductive bases and partials, we generalize our characterization theorem, showing that a partial can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element partial inductive basis. We apply our theory to develop and implement ibas, an incremental algorithm that finds minimal partial inductive bases generating a given partial. In the case of unary languages, ibas can often find minimal NFAs of up to 10 states in about an hour of computing time; with brute-force search this would require many trillions of years.

Algebraic Theory of Minimal Nondeterministic Finite Automata with Applications

Since the 1950s, the theory of deterministic and nondeterministic finite automata (DFAs and NFAs, respectively) has been a cornerstone of theoretical computer science. In this dissertation, our main object of study is minimal NFAs. In contrast with minimal DFAs, minimal NFAs are computationally challenging: first, there can be more than one minimal NFA recognizing a given language; second, the problem of converting an NFA to a minimal equivalent NFA is NP-hard, even for NFAs over a unary alphabet. Our study is based on the development of two main theories, inductive bases and partials, which in combination form the foundation for an incremental algorithm, ibas, to find minimal NFAs. An inductive basis is a collection of languages with the property that it can generate (through union) each of the left quotients of its elements. We prove a fundamental characterization theorem which says that a language can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element inductive basis. A partial is an incompletely-specified language. We say that an NFA recognizes a partial if its language extends the partial, meaning that the NFA's behavior is unconstrained on unspecified strings; it follows that a minimal NFA for a partial is also minimal for its language. We therefore direct our attention to minimal NFAs recognizing a given partial. Combining inductive bases and partials, we generalize our characterization theorem, showing that a partial can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element partial inductive basis. We apply our theory to develop and implement ibas, an incremental algorithm that finds minimal partial inductive bases generating a given partial. In the case of unary languages, ibas can often find minimal NFAs of up to 10 states in about an hour of computing time; with brute-force search this would require many trillions of years.