The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.

A Geographic Perspective of Cuban Landscapes

Beginning in the era of the Spanish conquest and taking the reader right up to the present day, this book focuses on how the landscape of Cuba has changed and evolved into the environment we see today. It illustrates the range of factors – economic, political and cultural – that have determined Cuba’s physical geography, and explores the shifting conservation measures which have been instituted in response to new methods in agriculture and land management. The text uses historical documents, fieldwork, Geographic Information System (GIS) data and remotely-sensed satellite imagery to detail Cuba’s extensive land-use history as well as its potential future. The author goes further to analyze the manner, speed and methods of landscape change, and examines the historical context and governing agendas that have had an impact on the relationship between Cuba’s inhabitants and their island. Gebelein also assesses the key role played by agricultural production in the framework of international trade required to sustain Cuba’s people and its economy. The book concludes with a review of current efforts by Cuban and other research scientists, as well as private investors, conservation managers and university professors who are involved in shaping Cuba’s evolving landscape and managing it during the country’s possible transition to a more politically diverse, enfranchised and open polity.