A model of mistaken alibis: How innocent alibi providers generate inaccurate alibis

This dissertation comprised two experiments, which addressed three main goals: (a) to test a new paradigm for measuring objectively the accuracy of alibis, (b) to explore the effectiveness of three retrieval cues (time only, location only, and time-and-location) in an alibi context, and (c) to explore the metacognitive strategies of innocent alibi providers who experience different financial incentives as well as different motivations for reporting (be informative vs. be convincing). ^ The novel paradigm appears promising: by surreptitiously controlling the whereabouts of future alibi providers during a critical time, objective accuracy measurements were in fact possible. Such accuracy measurements revealed that time-cued retrieval can be devastating to innocent alibi providers. Participants who attempted to recall their whereabouts via a time cue were significantly less accurate than participants who attempted recall via a location cue (Experiment 1). ^ Innocent alibi providers, when cued effectively, may not, however, report their memories differently from memory reporters in non-alibi contexts. When cued effectively, participants who experienced a goal of being convincing did not differ in accuracy from participants who experienced a goal of merely being informative (Experiment 2). Similarly, participants did not differ from one another in accuracy across different levels of financial incentive (Experiment 2). ^ Despite the indistinguishable accuracy rates of alibi providers and non-alibi memory reporters when retrieval was cued effectively, proffering mistaken alibis presents a real risk for innocent suspects. Future research needs to address methods by which that risk can be reduced. ^

Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Legacy and Fate of Mercury and Methylmercury in the Florida Everglades

Mass inventories of total Hg (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) and mass budgets of Hg newly deposited during the 2005 dry and wet seasons were constructed for the Everglades. As a sink for Hg, the Everglades has accumulated 914, 1138, 4931, and 7602 kg of legacy THg in its 4 management units, namely Water Conservation Area (WCA) 1, 2, 3, and the Everglades National Park (ENP), respectively, with most Hg being stored in soil. The current annual Hg inputs account only for 1−2% of the legacy Hg. Mercury transport across management units during a season amounts to 1% or less of Hg storage, except for WCA 2 where inflow inputs can contribute 4% of total MeHg storage. Mass budget suggests distinct spatiality for cycling of seasonally deposited Hg, with significantly lower THg fluxes entering water and floc in ENP than in the WCAs. Floc in WCAs can retain a considerable fraction (around 16%) of MeHg produced from the newly deposited Hg during the wet season. This work is important for evaluating the magnitude of legacy Hg contamination and for predicting the fate of new Hg in the Everglades, and provides a methodological example for large-scale studies on Hg cycling in wetlands.

Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Design and Synthesis of 4-N-Alkanoyl and 4-N-Alkyl Gemcitabine Analogues Suitable for Positron Emission Tomography

Gemcitabine is a highly potent chemotherapeutic nucleoside agent used in the treatment of several cancers and solid tumors. However, it is therapeutically limitated because of toxicity to normal cells and its rapid intracellular deamination by cytidine deaminase into the inactive uracil derivative. Modification at the 4-(N) position of gemcitabine's exocyclic amine to an -amide functionality is a well reported prodrug strategy which has been that confers a resistance to intracellular deamination while also altering pharmacokinetics of the parent drug. Coupling of gemcitabine to carboxylic acids with varying terminal moieties afforded the 4-N-alkanoylgemcitabines whereas reaction of 4-N-tosylgemcitabine with the corresponding alkyl amines gave the 4-N-alkylgemcitabines. The 4-N-alkanoyl and 4-N-alkyl gemcitabine analogues with a terminal hydroxyl group on the 4-N-alkanoyl or 4-N-alkyl chain were efficiently fluorinated either with diethylaminosulfur trifluoride or under conditions that are compatible with the synthetic protocols for 18F labeling, such as displacement of the corresponding mesylate with KF/Kryptofix 2.2.2. The 4-N-alkanoylgemcitabine analogues displayed potent cytostatic activities against murine and human tumor cell lines with 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) values in the range of low nM, whereas cytotoxicity of the 4-N-alkylgemcitabine derivatives were in the low to modest µM range. The cytostatic activity of the 4-N-alkanoylgemcitabines was reduced by several orders of magnitude in the 2'-deoxycytidine kinase (dCK)-deficient CEM/dCK- cell line while the 4-N-alkylgemcitabines were only lowered by 2-5 times. None of the 4-N-modified gemcitabines were found to be substrates for cytosolic dCK, however all were found to inhibit DNA synthesis. As such, the 4-N-alkanoyl gemcitabine derivatives likely need to be converted to gemcitabine prior to achieving their significant cytostatic potential, whereas the 4-N-alkylgemcitabines reach their modest activity without "measurable" conversion to gemcitabine. Thus, the 4-N-alkylgemcitabines provide valuable insight on the metabolism of 4-N-modified gemcitabine prodrugs.