A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Temporal analysis of land use and transportation investments with geographic information system

Land use and transportation interaction has been a research topic for several decades. There have been efforts to identify impacts of transportation on land use from several different perspectives. One focus has been the role of transportation improvements in encouraging new land developments or relocation of activities due to improved accessibility. The impacts studied have included property values and increased development. Another focus has been on the changes in travel behavior due to better mobility and accessibility. Most studies to date have been conducted in metropolitan level, thus unable to account for interactions spatially and temporally at smaller geographic scales. ^ In this study, a framework for studying the temporal interactions between transportation and land use was proposed and applied to three selected corridor areas in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The framework consists of two parts: one is developing of temporal data and the other is applying time series analysis to this temporal data to identify their dynamic interactions. Temporal GIS databases were constructed and used to compile building permit data and transportation improvement projects. Two types of time series analysis approaches were utilized: univariate models and multivariate models. Time series analysis is designed to describe the dynamic consequences of time series by developing models and forecasting the future of the system based on historical trends. Model estimation results from the selected corridors were then compared. ^ It was found that the time series models predicted residential development better than commercial development. It was also found that results from three study corridors varied in terms of the magnitude of impacts, length of lags, significance of the variables, and the model structure. Long-run effect or cumulated impact of transportation improvement on land developments was also measured with time series techniques. The study offered evidence that congestion negatively impacted development and transportation investments encouraged land development. ^

Decadal Change in Vegetation and Soil Phosphorus Pattern across the Everglades Landscape

Wetlands respond to nutrient enrichment with characteristic increases in soil nutrients and shifts in plant community composition. These responses to eutrophication tend to be more rapid and longer lasting in oligotrophic systems. In this study, we documented changes associated with water quality from 1989 to 1999 in oligotrophic Everglades wetlands. We accomplished this by resampling soils and macrophytes along four transects in 1999 that were originally sampled in 1989. In addition to documenting soil phosphorus (P) levels and decadal changes in plant species composition at the same sites, we report macrophyte tissue nutrient and biomass data from 1999 for future temporal comparisons. Water quality improved throughout much of the Everglades in the 1990s. In spite of this improvement, though, we found that water quality impacts worsened during this time in areas of the northern Everglades (western Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge [NWR] and Water Conservation Area [WCA] 2A). Zones of high soil P (exceeding 700 mg P kg−1 dry wt. soil) increased to more than 1 km from the western margin canal into the Loxahatchee NWR and more than 4 km from northern boundary canal into WCA-2A. This doubling of the high soil P zones since 1989 was paralleled with an expansion of cattail (Typha spp.)-dominated marsh in both regions. Macrophyte species richness declined in both areas from 1989 to 1999 (27% in the Loxahatchee NWR and 33% in WCA-2A). In contrast, areas well south of the Everglades Agricultural Area, including WCA-3A and Everglades National Park (ENP), did not decline during this time. We found no significant decadal change in plant community patterns from 1989 and 1999 along transects in southern WCA-3A or Shark River Slough (ENP). Our 1999 sampling also included a new transect in Taylor Slough (ENP), which will allow change analysis here in the future. Regular sampling of these transects, to verify decadal-scale environmental impacts or improvements, will continue to be an important tool for long-term management and restoration of the Everglades.

A tapestry of land uses and land covers typify our study site. Here, a commercial farm surrounds a new residential development.

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Chloroperoxidase catalyzed enantioselective epoxidation of selected olefins and regiospecific degradation of dimethylsulfoniopropionate

Chloroperoxidase (CPO), secreted by marine fungus Caldariomyces fumago, is the most versatile catalyst among known heme enzymes. Chloroperoxidase can catalyze epoxidation reactions with high enantioselectivity and high yield, which makes CPO an attractive candidate for both industrial and medicinal chiral synthesis. Toward this end, we have constructed two CPO mutants, F103A and N74V. Chiral HPLC was used to evaluate the enantioselectivity and yield of CPO and the mutants toward the epoxidation of styrene and its derivatives. Both of the mutants show dramatically changed epoxidation profiles compared to the parent protein. This information provided fresh insight into the mechanism through which CPO achieves its enantioselectivity. Furthermore, effort was made to understand the biological function of CPO through characterization of CPO catalyzed oxidation of dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), a secondary metabolite of many marine algal species that plays a pivotal role in marine ecology and global climate.^

Evaluating the relative contributions of hydroperiod and soil fertility on growth of south Florida mangroves

Low and high water periods create contrasting challenges for trees inhabiting periodically flooded wetlands. Low to moderate flood durations and frequencies may bring nutrient subsidies, while greater hydroperiods can be energetically stressful because of oxygen deficiency. We tested the hypothesis that hydroperiod affects the growth of mangrove seedlings and saplings in a greenhouse experiment by varying flood duration while keeping salinity and soil fertility constant. We measured the growth of mangrove trees along a hydroperiod gradient over a two-year period by tracking fine-scale diameter increment. Greenhouse growth studies indicated that under a full range of annual flood durations (0–8760 h/year), hydroperiod alone exerted a significant influence on growth for one species, Laguncularia racemosa, when flooding was imposed for two growing seasons. Field evaluations, on the other hand, indicated that increased flood duration may provide nutrient subsidies for tree growth. Diameter growth was related curvilinearly to site hydroperiod, including flood duration and frequency, as well as to salinity and soil fertility. An analysis of soil physico-chemical parameters suggests that phosphorus fertility, which was also linked directly to hydroperiod, is likely to influence growth on south Florida mangrove sites. The physical removal of phosphorus by greater flood frequencies from upland sources and/or addition of phosphorus from tidal flooding balanced against increased soil aeration and reduced water deficits may be an extremely important growth determinant for south Florida mangroves.

Sediment and soil organic matter source assessment as revealed by the molecular distribution and carbon isotopic composition of n-alkanes

The assessment of organic matter (OM) sources in sediments and soils is a key to better understand the biogeochemical cycling of carbon in aquatic environments. While traditional molecular marker-based methods have provided such information for typical two end member (allochthonous/terrestrial vs. autochthonous/microbial)-dominated systems, more detailed, biomass-specific assessments are needed for ecosystems with complex OM inputs such as tropical and sub-tropical wetlands and estuaries where aquatic macrophytes and macroalgae may play an important role as OM sources. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of a combined approach using compound specific stable carbon isotope analysis and an n-alkane based proxy (Paq) to differentiate submerged and emergent/terrestrial vegetation OM inputs to soils/sediments from a sub-tropical wetland and estuarine system, the Florida Coastal Everglades. Results show that Paq values (0.13–0.51) for the emergent/terrestrial plants were generally lower than those for freshwater/marine submerged vegetation (0.45–1.00) and that compound specific δ13C values for the n-alkanes (C23 to C31) were distinctively different for terrestrial/emergent and freshwater/marine submerged plants. While crossplots of the Paq and n-alkane stable isotope values for the C23n-alkane suggest that OM inputs are controlled by vegetation changes along the freshwater to marine transect, further resolution regarding OM input changes along this landscape was obtained through principal component analysis (PCA), successfully grouping the study sites according to the OM source strengths. The data show the potential for this n-alkane based multi-proxy approach as a means of assessing OM inputs to complex ecosystems.

Nutrient cycling in Alaskan tundra in response to experimental manipulation of growing season length and soil temperature : a climate change scenario

Climate change in the Arctic is predicted to increase plant productivity through decomposition-related enhanced nutrient availability. However, the extent of the increase will depend on whether the increased nutrient availability can be sustained. To address this uncertainty, I assessed the response of plant tissue nutrients, litter decomposition rates, and soil nutrient availability to experimental climate warming manipulations, extended growing season and soil warming, over a 7 year period. Overall, the most consistent effect was the year-to-year variability in measured parameters, probably a result of large differences in weather and time of snowmelt. The results of this study emphasize that although plants of arctic environments are specifically adapted to low nutrient availability, they also posses a suite of traits that help to reduce nutrient losses such as slow growth, low tissue concentrations, and low tissue turnover that result in subtle responses to environmental changes.

A model of the hydrothermal system at Casa Diablo in Long Valley, California, based on resistivity profiles and soil mercury analyses

A description and model of the near-surface hydrothermal system at Casa Diablo, with its implications for the larger-scale hydrothermal system of Long Valley, California, is presented. The data include resistivity profiles with penetrations to three different depth ranges, and analyses of inorganic mercury concentrations in 144 soil samples taken over a 1.3 by 1.7 km area. Analyses of the data together with the mapping of active surface hydrothermal features (fumaroles, mudpots, etc.), has revealed that the relationship between the hydrothermal system, surface hydrothermal activity, and mercury anomalies is strongly controlled by faults and topography. There are, however, more subtle factors responsible for the location of many active and anomalous zones such as fractures, zones of high permeability, and interactions between hydrothermal and cooler groundwater. In addition, the near-surface location of the upwelling from the deep hydrothermal reservoir, which supplies the geothermal power plants at Casa Diablo and the numerous hot pools in the caldera with hydrothermal water, has been detected. The data indicate that after upwelling the hydrothermal water flows eastward at shallow depth for at least 2 km and probably continues another 10 km to the east, all the way to Lake Crowley.

Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

Land Use and Water Quality Correlations in Miami-Dade, Florida

South Florida continues to become increasingly developed and urbanized. My exploratory study examines connections between land use and water quality. The main objectives of the project were to develop an understanding of how land use has affected water quality in Miami-Dade canals, and an economic optimization model to estimate the costs of best management practices necessary to improve water quality. Results indicate Miami-Dade County land use and water quality are correlated. Through statistical factor and cluster analysis, it is apparent that agricultural areas are associated with higher concentrations of nitrogen, while urban areas commonly have higher levels of phosphorous than agricultural areas. The economic optimization model shows that urban areas can improve water quality by lowering fertilizer inputs. Agricultural areas can also implement methods to improve water quality although it may be more expensive than urban areas. It is important to keep solutions in mind when looking towards future water quality improvements in South Florida.