Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^

Empirical study of exchange rates in Brazil, Canada and the Caribbean

This dissertation examines the monetary models of exchange rate determination for Brazil, Canada, and two countries in the Caribbean, namely, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. With the exception of Canada, the others adopted the floating regime during the past ten years.^ The empirical validity of four seminal models in exchange rate economics were determined. Three of these models were entirely classical (Bilson and Frenkel) or Keynesian (Dornbusch) in nature. The fourth model (Real Interest Differential Model) was a mixture of the two schools of economic theory.^ There is no clear empirical evidence of the validity of the monetary models. However, the signs of the coefficients of the nominal interest differential variable were as predicted by the Keynesian hypothesis in the case of Canada and as predicted by the Chicago theorists in the remaining countries. Moreover, in case of Brazil, due to hyperinflation, the exchange rate is heavily influenced by domestic money supply.^ I also tested the purchasing power parity (PPP) for this same set of countries. For both the monetary as well as the PPP hypothesis, I tested for co-integration and applied ordinary least squares estimation procedure. The error correction model was also used for the PPP model, to determine convergence to equilibrium.^ The validity of PPP is also questionable for my set of countries. Endogeinity among the regressors as well as the lack of proper price indices are the contributing factors. More importantly, Central Bank intervention negate rapid adjustment of price and exchange rates to their equilibrium value. However, its forecasting capability for the period 1993-1994 is superior compared to the monetary models in two of the four cases.^ I conclude that in spite of the questionable validity of these models, the monetary models give better results in the case of the "smaller" economies like the Dominican Republic and Jamaica where monetary influences swamp the other determinants of exchange rate. ^

Planning and evaluation of Business English course in compliance with internationalization in Taiwan: A case study of Tainan Women's College of Arts & Technology

In compliance with the economic internationalization movement and the development of Asia-Pacific Regional Operation Center (APROC) in Taiwan, international business has become more and more important. To sustain favorable trade balances every year and the promotion of APROC in Taiwan, more and more talent with knowledge and skills of Business English are needed. As a consequence, it is necessary to make Business English curriculum appropriate to meet the emerging needs.^ Two groups, experimental and control, received the revised or traditional Business English course to answer the question, "Does the Business English curriculum at Tainan Woman's College of Arts & Technology (TWCAT) meet the needs of students?" Ninety-five subjects were randomly selected from the commercial departments at TWCAT and then randomly assigned to the two groups. In addition, the Business English scores of the subjects' previous semester were collected and analyzed to justify the random selection and assignment. The finding was that their initial equivalence was proved.^ A questionnaire for students and another one for the business community were administered to facilitate data collection and analysis. The results of the questionnaires were used to modify the curriculum content of Business English.^ A final-term examination was given to the subjects at the end of the pilot study of Business English in early May of 1998. The resulting scores of the examination were used to determine if there was a significant difference in learning achievement between the students of the two groups.^ Using Independent Samples Test, significant results indicated that the experimental group had higher level of learning Business English than the control group. The finding supports the hypothesis of this study.^ Recommendations based on these results are that the revised curriculum be adapted and used by TWCAT because it better meets student needs. ^

The applied computer science of economic analyses: Internet prioritization and Internet pricing, and software engineering and software pricing for the mass market

This research examines evolving issues in applied computer science and applies economic and business analyses as well. There are two main areas. The first is internetwork communications as embodied by the Internet. The goal of the research is to devise an efficient pricing, prioritization, and incentivization plan that could be realistically implemented on the existing infrastructure. Criteria include practical and economic efficiency, and proper incentives for both users and providers. Background information on the evolution and functional operation of the Internet is given, and relevant literature is surveyed and analyzed. Economic analysis is performed on the incentive implications of the current pricing structure and organization. The problems are identified, and minimally disruptive solutions are proposed for all levels of implementation to the lowest level protocol. Practical issues are considered and performance analyses are done. The second area of research is mass market software engineering, and how this differs from classical software engineering. Software life-cycle revenues are analyzed and software pricing and timing implications are derived. A profit maximizing methodology is developed to select or defer the development of software features for inclusion in a given release. An iterative model of the stages of the software development process is developed, taking into account new communications capabilities as well as profitability. ^

An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

Essays on financial crises

This dissertation analyzes recent financial crises in developed and developing countries. The research emphasizes the effects of institutional factors on the international banking and currency crises and their output losses. ^ Chapter two examines the roles of regulation, supervision, and countries' institutional environment in determining the probability of banking crises for a panel of fifteen developed countries from 1975 to 1998. The results from a multivariate logit model indicated that countries with greater government involvement, less capital standard requirements, and lower lending limits on a single borrower are associated with a higher probability of banking crises. ^ Chapter three studies whether output loss in banking crisis differs in market-based or bank-based financial systems. Using existing banking crisis data for sixty-nine countries during 1970–1999, we investigate whether the underlying financial system affects the output loss. The results show that output losses are more serious in market-based economies than those in bank-based economies. Longer crisis duration tends to increase the output losses in banking crises. Finally, countries with deposit insurance and strict law enforcement have less output losses. ^ Chapter four uses macroeconomic and institutional measures to explain the extent of exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices for emerging countries affected by the Mexican currency crisis of 1994–95. The results show that countries with more government budget deficits, and worse reserve adequacies tend to experience large exchange rate depreciation. The institutional measures do not explain much the extent of both the exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices. ^

Liquidity and asset pricing: A comparison between three-factor and three-moment capital asset pricing models

Liquidity is an important attribute of an asset that investors would like to take into consideration when making investment decisions. However, the previous empirical evidence whether liquidity is a determinant of stock return is not unanimous. This dissertation provides a very comprehensive study about the role of liquidity in asset pricing using the Fama-French (1993) three-factor and Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) three-moment CAPM as models for risk adjustment. The relationship between liquidity and well-known determinants of stock returns such as size and book-to-market are also investigated. This study examines the liquidity and asset pricing issues for both intertemporal as well as cross-sectional data. ^ The results indicate an existence of a liquidity premium, i.e., less liquid stocks would demand higher rate of return than more liquid stocks. More specifically, a drop of 1 percent in liquidity is associated with a higher rate of return of about 2 to 3 basis points per month. Further investigation reveals that neither the Fama-French three-factor model nor the three-moment CAPM captures the liquidity premium. Finally, the results show that well-known determinants of stock return such as size and book-to-market do not serve as proxy for liquidity. ^ Overall, this dissertation shows that a liquidity premium exists in the stock market and that liquidity is a distinct effect, and is not influenced by the presence of non-market factors, market factors and other stock characteristics.^

Essays on firm behavior and firm performance

This dissertation comprises three individual chapters in an effort to examine different explanatory variables that affect firm performance. Chapter Two proposes an additional determinant of firm survival. Based on a detailed examination of firm survival in the British automobile industry between 1895 and 1970, we conclude that a firm's selection of submarket (defined by quality level) influenced survival. In contrast to findings for the US automobile industry, there is no evidence of first-mover advantage in the market as a whole. However, we do find evidence of first-mover advantage after conditioning on submarket choice. Chapter Three examines the effects of product line expansion on firm performance in terms of survival time. Based on a detailed examination of firm survival time in the British automobile industry between 1895 and 1970, we find that diversification exerts a positive effect on firm survival. Furthermore, our findings support the literature with respect to the impacts of submarket types, pre-entry experience, and timing of entry on firm survival time. Chapter Four examines corporate diversification in U.S. manufacturing and service firms. We develop measures of how related a firm's diverse activities are using input-output data and the NAILS classification to construct indexes of "vertical relatedness" and "complementarity". Strong relationships between these two measures are found. We utilize profitability and excess value as the measure for firm performance. Econometric analysis reveals that there is no relationship between the degree of relatedness of diversification and firm performance for the study period.

Essays on durable goods consumption and firm innovation

This dissertation comprises three individual chapters. Chapter Two examines how free riding across neighbors influenced the diffusion of color television sets in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors concerning its patent output. Chapter Four discusses how knowledge stocks influence a patenting firm’s later diversification. Chapter Two documents the existence of a type of network effects—free riding across neighbors—in the consumption of color television sets in rural China, which reduces the propensity of non-owners to purchase. I construct a model of the timing of the purchase of a durable good in the presence of free riding, and test its key implications using household survey data in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors about its patent output by examining insider trading patterns and stock price changes in R&D intensive firms. It demonstrates that management has considerable information about its patent output beyond what is known to investors. It also shows that the predictive power of insider trading patterns on patent output comes from purchases rather than sales. Chapter Four discusses two sequential channels through which knowledge stocks may influence a firm’s later diversification. One is that firms with more knowledge are more likely to enter a new industry. The other is that firms’ businesses have a better chance of surviving, conditional on being formed. By examining U.S. public patenting firms in manufacturing sectors for 1984-1996, I find that knowledge stocks predict the likelihood of new industry entry when controlling for firm size. However, this predictive power is weakened when diversification effects are included. On the other hand, a survival study of newly established segments shows that initial knowledge stocks have significant positive effects on segment survival, whereas diversification effects are insignificant.

Three essays on entrepreneurial entry, serial entrepreneurship, and labor turnover

This study explores two important aspects of entrepreneurship — liquidity constraints and serial entrepreneurs, with an additional analysis of occupational choice among wage workers. In the first essay, I revisit the question of whether entrepreneurs face liquidity constraints in business formation. The principle challenge is that wealth is correlated with unobserved ability, and adequate instruments are often difficult to identify. This paper uses the son's birth order as an instrument for household wealth. I exploit the data available in the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, and find evidence of liquidity constraints associated with self-employment in South Korea. The second essay develops and tests a model that explains entry into serial entrepreneurship and the performance of serial entrepreneurs as the result of selection on innate ability. The model supposes that agents establish businesses with imperfect information about their entrepreneurial ability and the profitability of business ideas. Agents continually observe signals with which they update their beliefs, and this process eventually determines their next business choice. Selection on ability induces a positive correlation between entrepreneurial experience (measured by previous business earnings and founding experience) and serial business formation, as well as its subsequent performance. The predictions in the model are tested using panel data from the NLSY79. The analysis permits a distinction to be made between selection on innate ability and learning by doing. Motivated by previous empirical findings that white-collar workers had higher turnover rates than blue-collar workers during firm expansion, the third essay further examines job turnover among workers with or without specific skills. I present a search-matching model, which predicts that when firm growth is driven by technological advance, workers whose skills are specific to the obsolete technology show a higher tendency to separate from their jobs. This hypothesis is tested with data from the PSID. I find supportive evidence that in the context of technological change, having an occupation requiring specific skills, such as computer specialists or engineers, increases the odds of job separation by nearly eight percent. ^

An examination of accounting and auditing issues related to strategic environmental initiatives

Although corporate environmental accountability is receiving unprecedented attention in the United States from policy makers, the capital market, and the public at large, extant research is limited in its examination of the implications of strategic corporate environmental initiatives on accounting and auditing. The purpose of my dissertation is to address these implications by examining the association between firm environmental initiatives and audit fees, capital expenditures, and earnings quality using multivariate regression analysis. I find that firms engaged in more strategic environmental initiatives tend to have significantly higher audit fees and capital expenditures, and significantly lower levels of earnings manipulation measured using discretionary accruals. These results support the notion that auditors do recognize the importance of environmental initiatives when conducting the year-end financial statement audit, an idea that positively reflects upon the auditor’s monitoring role. The results also demonstrate the increased amount of capital resources required to participate in strategic environmental initiatives, an anecdotal notion that had yet to be empirically supported. This empirical support provides valuable insights on how environmental initiatives materially impact corporate financial statements. Finally, my results extend the extant literature by demonstrating that the superior financial performance reported by environmentally active firms is less likely driven by earnings manipulation by management, and by implication, more likely a result of real economic gains. Taken together, my dissertation establishes a strong and timely foundation for current and future research to explore corporate environmental initiatives in the United States and globally, a topic increasingly gaining momentum in today’s more eco-conscious world.^

Control of MNC environmental performance and the challenges of subsidiary network dimensions

The trend of green consumerism and increased standardization of environmental regulations has driven multinational corporations (MNCs) to seek standardization of environmental practices or at least seek to be associated with such behavior. In fact, many firms are seeking to free ride on this global green movement, without having the actual ecological footprint to substantiate their environmental claims. While scholars have articulated the benefits from such optimization of uniform global green operations, the challenges for MNCs to control and implement such operations are understudied. For firms to translate environmental commitment to actual performance, the obstacles are substantial, particularly for the MNC. This is attributed to headquarters' (HQ) control challenges (1) in managing core elements of the corporate environmental management (CEM) process and specifically matching verbal commitment and policy with ecological performance and by (2) the fact that the MNC operates in multiple markets and the HQ is required to implement policy across complex subsidiary networks consisting of diverse and distant units. Drawing from the literature on HQ challenges of MNC management and control, this study examines (1) how core components of the CEM process impact optimization of global environmental performance (GEP) and then uses network theory to examine how (2) a subsidiary network's dimensions can present challenges to the implementation of green management policies. It presents a framework for CEM which includes (1) MNCs' Verbal environmental commitment, (2) green policy Management which guides standards for operations, (3) actual environmental Performance reflected in a firm's ecological footprint and (4) corporate environmental Reputation (VMPR). Then it explains how an MNC's key subsidiary network dimensions (density, diversity, and dispersion) create challenges that hinder the relationship between green policy management and actual environmental performance. It combines content analysis, multiple regression, and post-hoc hierarchal cluster analysis to study US manufacturing MNCs. The findings support a positive significant effect of verbal environmental commitment and green policy management on actual global environmental performance and environmental reputation, as well as a direct impact of verbal environmental commitment on green policy management. Unexpectedly, network dimensions were not found to moderate the relationship between green management policy and GEP.

Strategic positioning of Taiwan in the outsourcing market: Evidence from information technology services and electronic manufacturing outsourcing to China

In outsourcing relationships with China, the Electronic Manufacturing (EM) and Information Technology Services (ITS) industry in Taiwan may possess such advantages as the continuing growth of its production value, complete manufacturing supply chain, low production cost and a large-scale Chinese market, and language and culture similarity compared to outsourcing to other countries. Nevertheless, the Council for Economic Planning and Development of Executive Yuan (CEPD) found that Taiwan's IT services outsourcing to China is subject to certain constraints and might not be as successful as the EM outsourcing (Aggarwal, 2003; CEPD, 2004a; CIER, 2003; Einhorn and Kriplani, 2003; Kumar and Zhu, 2006; Li and Gao, 2003; MIC, 2006). Some studies examined this issue, but failed to (1) provide statistical evidence about lower prevalence rates of IT services outsourcing, and (2) clearly explain the lower prevalence rates of IT services outsourcing by identifying similarities and differences between both types of outsourcing contexts. This research seeks to fill that gap and possibly provide potential strategic guidelines to ITS firms in Taiwan. This study adopts Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) as the theoretical basis. The basic premise is that different types of outsourcing activities may incur differing transaction costs and realize varying degrees of outsourcing success due to differential attributes of the transactions in the outsourcing process. Using primary data gathered from questionnaire surveys of ninety two firms, the results from exploratory analysis and binary logistic regression indicated that (1) when outsourcing to China, Taiwanese firms' ITS outsourcing tends to have higher level of asset specificity, uncertainty and technical skills relative to EM outsourcing, and these features indirectly reduce firms' outsourcing prevalence rates via their direct positive impacts on transaction costs; (2) Taiwanese firms' ITS outsourcing tends to have lower level of transaction structurability relative to EM outsourcing, and this feature indirectly increases firms' outsourcing prevalence rates via its direct negative impacts on transaction costs; (3) frequency does influence firms' transaction costs in ITS outsourcing positively, but does not bring impacts into their outsourcing prevalence rates, (4) relatedness does influence firms' transaction costs positively and prevalence rates negatively in ITS outsourcing, but its impacts on the prevalence rates are not caused by the mediation effects of transaction costs, and (5) firm size of outsourcing provider does not affect firms' transaction costs, but does affect their outsourcing prevalence rates in ITS outsourcing directly and positively. Using primary data gathered from face-to-face interviews of executives from seven firms, the results from inductive analysis indicated that (1) IT services outsourcing has lower prevalence rates than EM outsourcing, and (2) this result is mainly attributed to Taiwan's core competence in manufacturing and management and higher overall transaction costs of IT services outsourcing. Specifically, there is not much difference between both types of outsourcing context in the transaction characteristics of reputation and most aspects of overall comparison. Although there are some differences in the feature of firm size of the outsourcing provider, the difference doesn't cause apparent impacts on firms' overall transaction costs. The medium or above medium difference in the transaction characteristics of asset specificity, uncertainty, frequency, technical skills, transaction structurability, and relatedness has caused higher overall transaction costs for IT services outsourcing. This higher cost might cause lower prevalence rates for ITS outsourcing relative to EM outsourcing. Overall, the interview results are consistent with the statistical analyses and provide support to my expectation that in outsourcing to China, Taiwan's electronic manufacturing firms do have lower prevalence rates of IT services outsourcing relative to EM outsourcing due to higher transaction costs caused by certain attributes. To solve this problem, firms' management should aim at identifying alternative strategies and strive to reduce their overall transaction costs of IT services outsourcing by initiating appropriate strategies which fit their environment and needs.

Labor turnover : its causes, consequences, and control strategy in five selected restaurants in the Miami area

The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the basic causes of food service employee turnover in five selected restaurants in the Miami area. The withdrawal behavior in this study is treated in terms of controllable turnover, for the purpose of management, learning more about what action to take to solve this problem which has eaten into the fabric of the hospitality industry. The aim is to find out from the food service employees and management view of work for the purpose of identifying the variables which cause an employee to voluntarily leave a job. The objective is therefore, to analyze and describe the problem of labor turnover in these selected restaurants. Such description must precede efforts to arrive at solutions to the problem if these efforts are ever to be more than haphazard and superficial. Sigmund Freud once stated: "The true beginning of scientific activity consists in describing phenomena and only then in proceeding to group, classify and correlate them."1 The nature of the study is basically descriptive survey. Data is collected by the use of management questionnaire, food service employee questionnaire and finally employees job description index. The survey consisted of a series of well defined questions with open and closed endings dealing with employee with employee turnover. As Robert Ferber and P. J. Verdoom state in their book titled Research Method in Economics of Business: "Structured questionnaires, by supplying question formulations in very specific terms as well as the different possible answers are easier for the sample members to answer and also serve to reduce the danger of interviewer bias."2 The answers to the prepared questionnaire by sample members were then recorded. The results of the questionnaire responses were then compiled for presentation and analysis. 1 Julian Simon, Basic Research Methods in Social Science. Random House, New York, 1969, p.53. 2 Robert J. Ferber and P.J. Verdoon, Research Methods in Economics and Business, The McMillan Company, 1962, p. 20 9 .

Three empirical essays on startups' survival using the Kauffman Firm Survey

This dissertation studies newly founded U.S. firms' survival using three different releases of the Kauffman Firm Survey. I study firms' survival from a different perspective in each chapter. ^ The first essay studies firms' survival through an analysis of their initial state at startup and the current state of the firms as they gain maturity. The probability of survival is determined using three probit models, using both firm-specific variables and an industry scale variable to control for the environment of operation. The firm's specific variables include size, experience and leverage as a debt-to-value ratio. The results indicate that size and relevant experience are both positive predictors for the initial and current states. Debt appears to be a predictor of exit if not justified wisely by acquiring assets. As suggested previously in the literature, entering a smaller-scale industry is a positive predictor of survival from birth. Finally, a smaller-scale industry diminishes the negative effects of debt. ^ The second essay makes use of a hazard model to confirm that new service-providing (SP) firms are more likely to survive than new product providers (PPs). I investigate the possible explanations for the higher survival rate of SPs using a Cox proportional hazard model. I examine six hypotheses (variations in capital per worker, expenses per worker, owners' experience, industry wages, assets and size), none of which appear to explain why SPs are more likely than PPs to survive. Two other possibilities are discussed: tax evasion and human/social relations, but these could not be tested due to lack of data. ^ The third essay investigates women-owned firms' higher failure rates using a Cox proportional hazard on two models. I make use of a never-before used variable that proxies for owners' confidence. This variable represents the owners' self-evaluated competitive advantage. ^ The first empirical model allows me to compare women's and men's hazard rates for each variable. In the second model I successively add the variables that could potentially explain why women have a higher failure rate. Unfortunately, I am not able to fully explain the gender effect on the firms' survival. Nonetheless, the second empirical approach allows me to confirm that social and psychological differences among genders are important in explaining the higher likelihood to fail in women-owned firms.^