GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

Fast Detection and Chemical Characterization of Gunshot Residues by CMV-GC-MS and LIBS

Gunshot residue (GSR) is the term used to describe the particles originating from different parts of the firearm and ammunition during the discharge. A fast and practical field tool to detect the presence of GSR can assist law enforcement in the accurate identification of subjects. A novel field sampling device is presented for the first time for the fast detection and quantitation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The capillary microextraction of volatiles (CMV) is a headspace sampling technique that provides fast results (< 2 min. sampling time) and is reported as a versatile and high-efficiency sampling tool. The CMV device can be coupled to a Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) instrument by installation of a thermal separation probe in the injection port of the GC. An analytical method using the CMV device was developed for the detection of 17 compounds commonly found in polluted environments. The acceptability of the CMV as a field sampling method for the detection of VOCs is demonstrated by following the criteria established by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) compendium method TO-17. The CMV device was used, for the first time, for the detection of VOCs on swabs from the hands of shooters, and non-shooters and spent cartridges from different types of ammunition (i.e., pistol, rifle, and shotgun). The proposed method consists in the headspace extraction of VOCs in smokeless powders present in the propellant of ammunition. The sensitivity of this method was demonstrated with method detection limits (MDLs) 4-26 ng for diphenylamine (DPA), nitroglycerine (NG), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and ethyl centralite (EC). In addition, a fast method was developed for the detection of the inorganic components (i.e., Ba, Pb, and Sb) characteristic of GSR presence by Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS). Advantages of LIBS include fast analysis (~ 12 seconds per sample) and good sensitivity, with expected MDLs in the range of 0.1-20 ng for target elements. Statistical analysis of the results using both techniques was performed to determine any correlation between the variables analyzed. This work demonstrates that the information collected from the analysis of organic components has the potential to improve the detection of GSR.