Essays on international lending and increasing returns to scale

Standard economic theory suggests that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries. However, capital has predominantly flowed to rich countries. The three essays in this dissertation attempt to explain this phenomenon. The first two essays suggest theoretical explanations for why capital has not flowed to the poor countries. The third essay empirically tests the theoretical explanations.^ The first essay examines the effects of increasing returns to scale on international lending and borrowing with moral hazard. Introducing increasing returns in a two-country general equilibrium model yields possible multiple equilibria and helps explain the possibility of capital flows from a poor to a rich country. I find that a borrowing country may need to borrow sufficient amounts internationally to reach a minimum investment threshold in order to invest domestically.^ The second essay examines how a poor country may invest in sectors with low productivity because of sovereign risk, and how collateral differences across sectors may exacerbate the problem. I model sovereign borrowing with a two-sector economy: one sector with increasing returns to scale (IRS) and one sector with diminishing returns to scale (DRS). Countries with incomes below a threshold will only invest in the DRS sector, and countries with incomes above a threshold will invest mostly in the IRS sector. The results help explain the existence of a bimodal world income distribution.^ The third essay empirically tests the explanations for why capital has not flowed from the rich to the poor countries, with a focus on institutions and initial capital. I find that institutional variables are a very important factor, but in contrast to other studies, I show that institutions do not account for the Lucas Paradox. Evidence of increasing returns still exists, even when controlling for institutions and other variables. In addition, I find that the determinants of capital flows may depend on whether a country is rich or poor.^

Controls on fish distribution and abundance in temporary wetlands

Our main goal was to determine if fish distribution and adundance in temporary wetlands were shaped primarily by large-scale (landscape) or small-scale (local) characteristics and to investigate the influence of cattle ranching on fish assemblages. A total of 24 temporary ponds were selected at the Kissimmee Prairie Sanctuary and the Mac- Arthur Agro-Ecology Research Center. Each wetland was sampled for fish using throw traps and dip nets during 1999. Landscape processes (connectivity to permanent water bodies) predominately influenced fish assemblages, although local processes (depth–hydroperiod) were also important. Furthermore, no colonizing species went locally extinct before wetlands began to dry. Our findings suggest that large-scale processes that influence colonization dynamics are of more importance than small-scale processes that influence extinction dynamics. Finally, hydrological changes (ditching) associated with agriculture (cattle ranching) have adversely affected temporary wetland fish assemblages by reducing wetland hydroperiods and connectivity.

Across-scale patterning of plant-soil-water interactions surrounding tree islands in Southern Everglades landscapes

The freshwater Everglades is a complex system containing thousands of tree islands embedded within a marsh-grassland matrix. The tree island-marsh mosaic is shaped and maintained by hydrologic, edaphic and biological mechanisms that interact across multiple scales. Preserving tree islands requires a more integrated understanding of how scale-dependent phenomena interact in the larger freshwater system. The hierarchical patch dynamics paradigm provides a conceptual framework for exploring multi-scale interactions within complex systems. We used a three-tiered approach to examine the spatial variability and patterning of nutrients in relation to site parameters within and between two hydrologically defined Everglades landscapes: the freshwater Marl Prairie and the Ridge and Slough. Results were scale-dependent and complexly interrelated. Total carbon and nitrogen patterning were correlated with organic matter accumulation, driven by hydrologic conditions at the system scale. Total and bioavailable phosphorus were most strongly related to woody plant patterning within landscapes, and were found to be 3 to 11 times more concentrated in tree island soils compared to surrounding marshes. Below canopy resource islands in the slough were elongated in a downstream direction, indicating soil resource directional drift. Combined multi-scale results suggest that hydrology plays a significant role in landscape patterning and also the development and maintenance of tree islands. Once developed, tree islands appear to exert influence over the spatial distribution of nutrients, which can reciprocally affect other ecological processes.

Exploring therapy process and outcome in interventions that target at risk adolescents

The purpose of this study was to conduct a larger scale replication and extension study on the use of a Session Impact Measure the Session Evaluation Form. Ninety-one public high school students in Miami Florida were obtained through self or counselor referrals and placed in one or two of five counseling groups for one or two school semesters. To investigate differences in therapy processes across counseling groups, participants were administered a Session Evaluation Form at the end of each therapy session. This assessed group members' perception of four therapy process domains, Group, Facilitator, Skills and Exploration Impacts. The pattern significant results for the MANOVAs provided strong evidence for the greater impact of the group on therapy process relative to the impact of facilitator. Further research is needed to identify more specifically, ways, group process differences interact with other treatment variables.

Determining magmatic processes from analysis of phenocrysts and gabbroic xenoliths contained in Calbuco andesites

Calbuco Volcano, in Southern Chile, has eruptive products of predominantly andesitic hornblende-bearing lava. A purpose of this work is to understand magmatic processes and how Calbuco magma chemistry is related to the explosive volcanic character. Calbuco lava has a mineral assemblage of plagioclase, hornblende, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, olivine, and magnetite and entrained gabbroic xenoliths with the same mineral assemblage. The presence of hornblende is evidence for dissolved water in the magma. Detailed petrographic/textural analysis has been done using petrographic microscopy and back-scattered electron imaging (BSE); geochemical analysis by electron microprobe (EPMA). Major findings include 1) that hornblende and hornblende-bearing gabbroic cumulates crystallize from Calbuco magma, 2) that plagioclase grains are compositionally zoned, recording evidence of temperature, chemical, and water content fluctuations in the magma, and 3) that hornblende is unstable under upper magma chamber conditions at Calbuco, and is breaking down into plagioclase, olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and magnetite in the magma.