17 resultados para Risk models


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Despite research showing the benefits of glycemic control, it remains suboptimal among adults with diabetes in the United States. Possible reasons include unaddressed risk factors as well as lack of awareness of its immediate and long term consequences. The objectives of this study were to, using cross-sectional data, 1) ascertain the association between suboptimal (Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥7%), borderline (HbA1c 7-8.9%), and poor (HbA1c ≥9%) glycemic control and potentially new risk factors (e.g. work characteristics), and 2) assess whether aspects of poor health and well-being such as poor health related quality of life (HRQOL), unemployment, and missed-work are associated with glycemic control; and 3) using prospective data, assess the relationship between mortality risk and glycemic control in US adults with type 2 diabetes. Data from the 1988-1994 and 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were used. HbA1c values were used to create dichotomous glycemic control indicators. Binary logistic regression models were used to assess relationships between risk factors, employment status and glycemic control. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess relationships between glycemic control and HRQOL variables. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models were used to assess relationships between missed work days and glycemic control. Cox-proportional hazard models were used to assess effects of glycemic control on mortality risk. Using STATA software, analyses were weighted to account for complex survey design and non-response. Multivariable models adjusted for socio-demographics, body mass index, among other variables. Results revealed that being a farm worker and working over 40 hours/week were risk factors for suboptimal glycemic control. Having greater days of poor mental was associated with suboptimal, borderline, and poor glycemic control. Having greater days of inactivity was associated with poor glycemic control while having greater days of poor physical health was associated with borderline glycemic control. There were no statistically significant relationships between glycemic control, self-reported general health, employment, and missed work. Finally, having an HbA1c value less than 6.5% was protective against mortality. The findings suggest that work-related factors are important in a person’s ability to reach optimal diabetes management levels. Poor glycemic control appears to have significant detrimental effects on HRQOL.

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Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: 1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (ELUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; 2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; 3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: 1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); 2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and 3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: 1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; 2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; 3) ELUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and 4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.