A nested Petri net framework for modeling and analyzing multi-agent systems

In the past two decades, multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a new paradigm for conceptualizing large and complex distributed software systems. A multi-agent system view provides a natural abstraction for both the structure and the behavior of modern-day software systems. Although there were many conceptual frameworks for using multi-agent systems, there was no well established and widely accepted method for modeling multi-agent systems. This dissertation research addressed the representation and analysis of multi-agent systems based on model-oriented formal methods. The objective was to provide a systematic approach for studying MAS at an early stage of system development to ensure the quality of design. ^ Given that there was no well-defined formal model directly supporting agent-oriented modeling, this study was centered on three main topics: (1) adapting a well-known formal model, predicate transition nets (PrT nets), to support MAS modeling; (2) formulating a modeling methodology to ease the construction of formal MAS models; and (3) developing a technique to support machine analysis of formal MAS models using model checking technology. PrT nets were extended to include the notions of dynamic structure, agent communication and coordination to support agent-oriented modeling. An aspect-oriented technique was developed to address the modularity of agent models and compositionality of incremental analysis. A set of translation rules were defined to systematically translate formal MAS models to concrete models that can be verified through the model checker SPIN (Simple Promela Interpreter). ^ This dissertation presents the framework developed for modeling and analyzing MAS, including a well-defined process model based on nested PrT nets, and a comprehensive methodology to guide the construction and analysis of formal MAS models.^

Evaluation of wind-induced internal pressure in low-rise buildings: A multi scale experimental and numerical approach

Hurricane is one of the most destructive and costly natural hazard to the built environment and its impact on low-rise buildings, particularity, is beyond acceptable. The major objective of this research was to perform a parametric evaluation of internal pressure (IP) for wind-resistant design of low-rise buildings and wind-driven natural ventilation applications. For this purpose, a multi-scale experimental, i.e. full-scale at Wall of Wind (WoW) and small-scale at Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel (BLWT), and a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach was adopted. This provided new capability to assess wind pressures realistically on internal volumes ranging from small spaces formed between roof tiles and its deck to attic to room partitions. Effects of sudden breaching, existing dominant openings on building envelopes as well as compartmentalization of building interior on the IP were systematically investigated. Results of this research indicated: (i) for sudden breaching of dominant openings, the transient overshooting response was lower than the subsequent steady state peak IP and internal volume correction for low-wind-speed testing facilities was necessary. For example a building without volume correction experienced a response four times faster and exhibited 30–40% lower mean and peak IP; (ii) for existing openings, vent openings uniformly distributed along the roof alleviated, whereas one sided openings aggravated the IP; (iii) larger dominant openings exhibited a higher IP on the building envelope, and an off-center opening on the wall exhibited (30–40%) higher IP than center located openings; (iv) compartmentalization amplified the intensity of IP and; (v) significant underneath pressure was measured for field tiles, warranting its consideration during net pressure evaluations. The study aimed at wind driven natural ventilation indicated: (i) the IP due to cross ventilation was 1.5 to 2.5 times higher for Ainlet/Aoutlet>1 compared to cases where Ainlet/Aoutlet<1, this in effect reduced the mixing of air inside the building and hence the ventilation effectiveness; (ii) the presence of multi-room partitioning increased the pressure differential and consequently the air exchange rate. Overall good agreement was found between the observed large-scale, small-scale and CFD based IP responses. Comparisons with ASCE 7-10 consistently demonstrated that the code underestimated peak positive and suction IP.

Multi-Tissue Stable Isotope Analysis and Acoustic Telemetry Reveal Seasonal Variability in the Trophic Interactions of Juvenile Bull Sharks in a Coastal Estuary

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic drivers affect extant food webs is critical to predicting the impacts of climate change and habitat alterations on ecosystem dynamics. In the Florida Everglades, seasonal reductions in freshwater flow and precipitation lead to annual migrations of aquatic taxa from marsh habitats to deep-water refugia in estuaries. The timing and intensity of freshwater reductions, however, will be modified by ongoing ecosystem restoration and predicted climate change. Understanding the importance of seasonally pulsed resources to predators is critical to predicting the impacts of management and climate change on their populations. As with many large predators, however, it is difficult to determine to what extent predators like bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) in the coastal Everglades make use of prey pulses currently. We used passive acoustic telemetry to determine whether shark movements responded to the pulse of marsh prey. To investigate the possibility that sharks fed on marsh prey, we modelled the predicted dynamics of stable isotope values in bull shark blood and plasma under different assumptions of temporal variability in shark diets and physiological dynamics of tissue turnover and isotopic discrimination. Bull sharks increased their use of upstream channels during the late dry season, and although our previous work shows long-term specialization in the diets of sharks, stable isotope values suggested that some individuals adjusted their diets to take advantage of prey entering the system from the marsh, and as such this may be an important resource for the nursery. Restoration efforts are predicted to increase hydroperiods and marsh water levels, likely shifting the timing, duration and intensity of prey pulses, which could have negative consequences for the bull shark population and/or induce shifts in behaviour. Understanding the factors influencing the propensity to specialize or adopt more flexible trophic interactions will be an important step in fully understanding the ecological role of predators and how ecological roles may vary with environmental and anthropogenic changes.

Real-time scheduling of embedded applications on multi-core platforms

For the past several decades, we have experienced the tremendous growth, in both scale and scope, of real-time embedded systems, thanks largely to the advances in IC technology. However, the traditional approach to get performance boost by increasing CPU frequency has been a way of past. Researchers from both industry and academia are turning their focus to multi-core architectures for continuous improvement of computing performance. In our research, we seek to develop efficient scheduling algorithms and analysis methods in the design of real-time embedded systems on multi-core platforms. Real-time systems are the ones with the response time as critical as the logical correctness of computational results. In addition, a variety of stringent constraints such as power/energy consumption, peak temperature and reliability are also imposed to these systems. Therefore, real-time scheduling plays a critical role in design of such computing systems at the system level. We started our research by addressing timing constraints for real-time applications on multi-core platforms, and developed both partitioned and semi-partitioned scheduling algorithms to schedule fixed priority, periodic, and hard real-time tasks on multi-core platforms. Then we extended our research by taking temperature constraints into consideration. We developed a closed-form solution to capture temperature dynamics for a given periodic voltage schedule on multi-core platforms, and also developed three methods to check the feasibility of a periodic real-time schedule under peak temperature constraint. We further extended our research by incorporating the power/energy constraint with thermal awareness into our research problem. We investigated the energy estimation problem on multi-core platforms, and developed a computation efficient method to calculate the energy consumption for a given voltage schedule on a multi-core platform. In this dissertation, we present our research in details and demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approaches with extensive experimental results.

Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies: A Global Perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: 1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, 2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, 3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and 4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

A Multi-Criteria GIS-Based Route Selection Tool for Hazardous Material Transport: Consideration of Environmental Consequence, Traffic Congestions and Costs

Hazardous materials are substances that, if not regulated, can pose a threat to human populations and their environmental health, safety or property when transported in commerce. About 1.5 million tons of hazardous material shipments are transported by truck in the US annually, with a steady increase of approximately 5% per year. The objective of this study was to develop a routing tool for hazardous material transport in order to facilitate reduced environmental impacts and less transportation difficulties, yet would also find paths that were still compelling for the shipping carriers as a matter of trucking cost. The study started with identification of inhalation hazard impact zones and explosion protective areas around the location of hypothetical hazardous material releases, considering different parameters (i.e., chemicals characteristics, release quantities, atmospheric condition, etc.). Results showed that depending on the quantity of release, chemical, and atmospheric stability (a function of wind speed, meteorology, sky cover, time and location of accidents, etc.) the consequence of these incidents can differ. The study was extended by selection of other evaluation criteria for further investigation because health risk as an evaluation criterion would not be the only concern in selection of routes. Transportation difficulties (i.e., road blockage and congestion) were incorporated as important factor due to their indirect impact/cost on the users of transportation networks. Trucking costs were also considered as one of the primary criteria in selection of hazardous material paths; otherwise the suggested routes would have not been convincing for the shipping companies. The last but not least criterion was proximity of public places to the routes. The approach evolved from a simple framework to a complicated and efficient GIS-based tool able to investigate transportation networks of any given study area, and capable of generating best routing options for cargos. The suggested tool uses a multi-criteria-decision-making method, which considers the priorities of the decision makers in choosing the cargo routes. Comparison of the routing options based on each criterion and also the overall suitableness of the path in regards to all the criteria (using a multi-criteria-decision-making method) showed that using similar tools as the one proposed by this study can provide decision makers insights in the area of hazardous material transport. This tool shows the probable consequences of considering each path in a very easily understandable way; in the formats of maps and tables, which makes the tradeoffs of costs and risks considerably simpler, as in some cases slightly compromising on trucking cost may drastically decrease the probable health risk and/or traffic difficulties. This will not only be rewarding to the community by making cities safer places to live, but also can be beneficial to shipping companies by allowing them to advertise as environmental friendly conveyors.