19 resultados para Model development guidelines


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Major portion of hurricane-induced economic loss originates from damages to building structures. The damages on building structures are typically grouped into three main categories: exterior, interior, and contents damage. Although the latter two types of damages, in most cases, cause more than 50% of the total loss, little has been done to investigate the physical damage process and unveil the interdependence of interior damage parameters. Building interior and contents damages are mainly due to wind-driven rain (WDR) intrusion through building envelope defects, breaches, and other functional openings. The limitation of research works and subsequent knowledge gaps, are in most part due to the complexity of damage phenomena during hurricanes and lack of established measurement methodologies to quantify rainwater intrusion. This dissertation focuses on devising methodologies for large-scale experimental simulation of tropical cyclone WDR and measurements of rainwater intrusion to acquire benchmark test-based data for the development of hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage model. Target WDR parameters derived from tropical cyclone rainfall data were used to simulate the WDR characteristics at the Wall of Wind (WOW) facility. The proposed WDR simulation methodology presents detailed procedures for selection of type and number of nozzles formulated based on tropical cyclone WDR study. The simulated WDR was later used to experimentally investigate the mechanisms of rainwater deposition/intrusion in buildings. Test-based dataset of two rainwater intrusion parameters that quantify the distribution of direct impinging raindrops and surface runoff rainwater over building surface — rain admittance factor (RAF) and surface runoff coefficient (SRC), respectively —were developed using common shapes of low-rise buildings. The dataset was applied to a newly formulated WDR estimation model to predict the volume of rainwater ingress through envelope openings such as wall and roof deck breaches and window sill cracks. The validation of the new model using experimental data indicated reasonable estimation of rainwater ingress through envelope defects and breaches during tropical cyclones. The WDR estimation model and experimental dataset of WDR parameters developed in this dissertation work can be used to enhance the prediction capabilities of existing interior damage models such as the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM).^

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An awareness of mercury (Hg) contamination in various aquatic environments around the world has increased over the past decade, mostly due to its ability to concentrate in the biota. Because the presence and distribution of Hg in aquatic systems depend on many factors (e.g., pe, pH, salinity, temperature, organic and inorganic ligands, sorbents, etc.), it is crucial to understand its fate and transport in the presence of complexing constituents and natural sorbents, under those different factors. An improved understanding of the subject will support the selection of monitoring, remediation, and restoration technologies. The coupling of equilibrium chemical reactions with transport processes in the model PHREEQC offers an advantage in simulating and predicting the fate and transport of aqueous chemical species of interest. Thus, a great variety of reactive transport problems could be addressed in aquatic systems with boundary conditions of specific interest. Nevertheless, PHREEQC lacks a comprehensive thermodynamic database for Hg. Therefore, in order to use PHREEQC to address the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments, it is necessary to expand its thermodynamic database, confirm it and then evaluate it in applications where potential exists for its calibration and continued validation. The objectives of this study were twofold: 1) to develop, expand, and confirm the Hg database of the hydrogeochemical PHREEQC to enhance its capability to simulate the fate of Hg species in the presence of complexing constituents and natural sorbents under different conditions of pH, redox, salinity and temperature; and 2) to apply and evaluate the new database in flow and transport scenarios, at two field test beds: Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, TN and Everglades National Park, FL, where Hg is present and is of much concern. Overall, this research enhanced the capability of the PHREEQC model to simulate the coupling of the Hg reactions in transport conditions. It also demonstrated its usefulness when applied to field situations.

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Cyanobacteria ("blue-green algae") are known to produce a diverse repertoire of biologically active secondary metabolites. When associated with so-called "harmful algal blooms", particularly in freshwater systems, a number of these metabolites have been associated—as "toxins", or commonly "cyanotoxins"—with human and animal health concerns. In addition to the known water-soluble toxins from these genera (i.e. microcystins, cylindrospermopsin, and saxitoxins), our studies have shown that there are metabolites within the lipophilic extracts of these strains that inhibit vertebrate development in zebrafish embryos. Following these studies, the zebrafish embryo model was implemented in the bioassay-guided purification of four isolates of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms, namely Aphanizomenon, two isolates of Cylindrospermopsis, and Microcystis, in order to identify and chemically characterize the bioactive lipophilic metabolites in these isolates. ^ We have recently isolated a group of polymethoxy-1-alkenes (PMAs), as potential toxins, based on the bioactivity observed in the zebrafish embryos. Although PMAs have been previously isolated from diverse cyanobacteria, they have not previously been associated with relevant toxicity. These compounds seem to be widespread across the different genera of cyanobacteria, and, according to our studies, suggested to be derived from the polyketide biosynthetic pathway which is a common synthetic route for cyanobacterial and other algal toxins. Thus, it can be argued that these metabolites are perhaps important contributors to the toxicity of cyanobacterial blooms. In addition to the PMAs, a set of bioactive glycosidic carotenoids were also isolated because of their inhibition of zebrafish embryonic development. These pigmented organic molecules are found in many photosynthetic organisms, including cyanobacteria, and they have been largely associated with the prevention of photooxidative damage. This is the first indication of these compounds as toxic metabolites and the hypothesized mode of action is via their biotransformation to retinoids, some of which are known to be teratogenic. Additional fractions within all four isolates have been shown to contain other uncharacterized lipophilic toxic metabolites. This apparent repertoire of lipophilic compounds may contribute to the toxicity of these cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms, which were previously attributed primarily to the presence of the known water-soluble toxins.^

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Within the Stage II program evaluation of the Miami Youth Development Project's (YDP) Changing Lives Program (CLP), this study evaluated CLP intervention effectiveness in promoting positive change in emotion-focused identity exploration (i.e. feelings of personal expressiveness; PE) and a "negative" symptom of identity development (i.e. identity distress; ID) as a first step toward the investigation of a self-transformative model of identity development in adolescent youth. Using structural equation modeling techniques, this study found that participation in the CLP is associated with positive changes in PE (path = .841, p < .002), but not changes in ID. Increase in ID scores was found to be associated with increases in PE (path = .229, p < .002), as well. Intervention effects were not moderated by age/stage, gender, or ethnicity, though differences were found in the degree to which participating subgroups (African- American/Hispanic, male/female, 14-16 years old/17-19 years old) experience change in PE and ID. Findings also suggest that moderate levels of ID may not be deleterious to identity exploration and may be associated with active exploration.