GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

A Geographic Perspective of Cuban Landscapes

Beginning in the era of the Spanish conquest and taking the reader right up to the present day, this book focuses on how the landscape of Cuba has changed and evolved into the environment we see today. It illustrates the range of factors – economic, political and cultural – that have determined Cuba’s physical geography, and explores the shifting conservation measures which have been instituted in response to new methods in agriculture and land management. The text uses historical documents, fieldwork, Geographic Information System (GIS) data and remotely-sensed satellite imagery to detail Cuba’s extensive land-use history as well as its potential future. The author goes further to analyze the manner, speed and methods of landscape change, and examines the historical context and governing agendas that have had an impact on the relationship between Cuba’s inhabitants and their island. Gebelein also assesses the key role played by agricultural production in the framework of international trade required to sustain Cuba’s people and its economy. The book concludes with a review of current efforts by Cuban and other research scientists, as well as private investors, conservation managers and university professors who are involved in shaping Cuba’s evolving landscape and managing it during the country’s possible transition to a more politically diverse, enfranchised and open polity.